<DrumBeat: August 30, 2008 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: August 31, 2008>

321 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure, and Updated Damage Models - Thread #3 (updated 23:46 edt)

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westexas on August 30, 2008 - 9:33am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Side by side view of Gustav & Hannah:

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/satellite.asp?region=car&anim...

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DelusionaL on August 30, 2008 - 11:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WOW!

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westexas on August 30, 2008 - 2:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

One of the models that someone posted showed four storms hitting the Gulf Coast by mid-September.

I think that the big problem nationwide, if we get a succession of storms hitting across a wide area, even if they all don't hit the Gulf Coast, is a very long delay in getting all of the powerlines repaired, which will also of course affect gasoline stations.

Track for Hanna:

http://www.cbs12.com/news/hanna_4709331___article.html/northwest_west.html

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slinky on August 30, 2008 - 11:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well isn't this just a fine how-do-ya-do. Hanna looks to be 10 to 15 days behind Gus. If she dances her way into the gulf and hooks, she could take out any platforms Gus missed, and keep every thing shut in for quite awhile. If the 2 to 3 storms currently bringing up the rear follow similar paths into the GOM...I shudder to think. Say hello to $4.50-$5.00 gas.

Jeff

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super390 on August 30, 2008 - 12:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Drill, drill, drill?!

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woodychuck on August 30, 2008 - 12:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

RE: "Drill, drill, drill?!"

When, when, when??? Would you like to start on that drilling Monday at about 10 AM? Bring your lunch, and a life vest - I'll be there as soon as I can, just to watch. Bring your rig, of course, since mine's tied up for the next couple of years.

It would seem to me that this group of potential storms would demonstrate the folly of the drill, drill, drill part of our malleable Senator from Arizpona's platform. And likewise the folly of McSame's claim that new leases could be producing within one year, but not those other ones (the 68 million acres under lease.) These leases are different - not like those other leases.

I just don't accept the 1 year claim - I'm not like those other people.

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Dragonfly41 on August 30, 2008 - 12:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ummmm...why isn't Hanna turning southwest like they are modelling? If nothing turns her...she is going to hit the upper northeast US. That is a friggin scary thought.

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expat on August 30, 2008 - 1:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No comments about scary, but certainly within normal limits - the East Coast (mid-Atlantic and up to Nova Scotia) has been spared for a while, but it too is part of a normal hurricane path.

A great link is here - http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/Majorne.htm (though America-centric - I am pretty certain Nova Scotia has been hit too)
'Since 1900 six major hurricanes have made landfall between Virginia and Massachusetts. No major hurricanes have struck the Atlantic Coast north of southern Massachusetts. There is no record of a category 4 or 5 hurricane landfall in the north Atlantic states. Most of the major hurricanes to strike the northeast coast were moving at greater than 30-mph at landfall. The combination of wind speed and forward motion - increases the destructive potential of the wind and ocean surge on the right hand side of the storm. This is a critical and especially dangerous aspect of hurricanes that strike this region. Eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, and Rhode Island have suffered very heavy wind and storm surge damages several times since 1900. The period from 1938 to 1960 were very active in the north Atlantic states - four major hurricanes struck in just 22 years. Since 1991 (Bob) - there has not been a hurricane landfall in the north Atlantic states.'

A bit of local color from Ocean City MD -
'Described in the American Meteorological Society's August 1933 weather review as "one of the most severe storms that has ever visited the Middle Atlantic Coast," the slow-moving weather mass dumped 10 inches of rain a day for nearly a week, even before wind gusts as high as 80 mph and a 7-foot tide arrived.
......................................
The Great Hurricane of 1933, which struck 75 years ago tomorrow, wreaked havoc from Norfolk to Atlantic City and killed 13 people in Maryland. It wrecked Ocean City's boardwalk, flooded the town, demolished whole blocks and cut off its rail and road links to the mainland.'
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/easternshore/bal-75anniversarysto...

Read the whole article - the moral, such as it is, is perfect for TOD.

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Twilight on August 30, 2008 - 2:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The models for Hanna are now showing a stall and a turn toward the North. Round and round it goes, where it stops, no one knows.

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slinky on August 30, 2008 - 7:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yup, just checked out weather underground. All the track forecasters have that big girl taking a right at the Bahamas. Florida getting slapped on both cheeks at virtually the same time. And the Gator State is still under water from Aunt Faye. With luck, if you can call it that, Hanna will have mercy on FLA and save it for further north. I doubt FEMA is ready for that scenario. Blackwater's going to be very busy in Sept. Wow.

Jeff

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ken1 on August 31, 2008 - 6:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

delay the election?

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HereinHalifax on August 30, 2008 - 2:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Expat,

Halifax took a direct hit from Hurricane Juan back in September 2003 (see: http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/juan/#photo). A large sail boat was literally tossed through my neighbour's living room window. I lost thirteen trees on my property but, thankfully, no significant damage to my home. No power for about a week, but others were without electricity for much longer.

We also had a minor run-in with Hurricane Noel in November 2007, but other than localized damage due to the accompanying storm surge and loss of power, nothing too serious.

Cheers,
Paul

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expat on August 30, 2008 - 3:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks - I simply didn't take the time to search for the information, in part, because 'hurricane' is a bit of an ambiguous term.

We experienced an 'Orkan' where I live in Germany in December 1999, and for all intents and purposes, it was a hurricane. However, technically, it didn't have an eye, didn't involve much in the way of rain or lightning (though the thaw a few days preceding the rain led to very wet soil conditions contributing to the massive number of trees knocked down), and essentially did all its damage over land, more or less intensifying as it went along, not weakening until hundreds of kilometers inland.

For some strange reason, Nova Scotia is never considered by Americans when discussing the Atlantic coast, even though it has the warmest water north of Cape Hatteras, and a maritime tradition as old as any in New England.

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GreenMan on August 30, 2008 - 12:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think this is an interesting point. If the projections were actually for a series of storms, each of which could warrant shutting in production, how great would the spacing between storms need to be in order to justify bringing the platforms back on-line, knowing that a new shutdown might be only a few days away? It would seem that there would be costs involved that would have to be balanced against the likelihood of the next storm's impact and current production revenue.

Regardless of any damage, this might stretch the shut-in period to weeks.

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slinky on August 30, 2008 - 3:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's what I was thinking. A long shut in. I was wondering, if someone more knowledgeable knows, do the warmer surface temps "pull" the storms into the warmer zones, where they then strengthen even more? If so, google "GOM surface temps" and note the warmer temps in the Gulf v. the Atlantic. Even if Hanna runs up the the Atlantic coast, chances are good one of them will visit the Gulf. Either way, Gus is now cat.4 and headed for you know where. That's gonna be bad enough. If you're the praying type, keep NOLA in your thoughts. Could be a last gasp. Good luck Alan FBE. Best hopes.

Jeff

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Ben on August 30, 2008 - 3:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

My son just had a pretty decent observation: "If they join together, it'll be like a Category 10!"

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Nate Hagens on August 30, 2008 - 7:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I deleted a series of large (old) images below. This comment by Doug Fir was nested in and am copying it here:
"These images of impending doom for Cuba and our discussion remind me of the link on Jeff Masters blog a few days ago.

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/hurricane_bound_for_texas_slowed

What is going on with Cuba with damage projections, how are they prepared?"

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Undertow on August 30, 2008 - 8:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Current Key West long range (not large only 40k) live image


Click above for latest loop

Northern eyewall close to clearing Cuba at time of posting.

Cuban weather radar at http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

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321 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure, and Updated Damage Models - Thread #3 (updated 23:46 edt)

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