"experts offer scaled-back sea level rise forecast"

Given that developments of the last years outpace even the worst case models 2.6 to 6.6 feet seems optimistic.

I've got a better authority:

Faster Rise In Sea Level Predicted From Melting Greenland Ice Sheet, Based On Lessons From Ice Age

ScienceDaily (Sep. 1, 2008) — If the lessons being learned by scientists about the demise of the last great North American ice sheet are correct, estimates of global sea level rise from a melting Greenland ice sheet may be seriously underestimated.

And I believe the article cited was put out to refute the
UW Madison one.

None of the models are keeping up with the melt.

http://www.sciencecodex.com/ice_age_lesson_predicts_a_faster_rise_in_sea...

While not questioning at all the idea that we are in for a noteworthy run of sea level rise, it seems to me that the article implies (but does not overtly state) that Greenland melting will raise sea level at the same rate as did the melting of a *much* larger ice mass -- and that I'm not buying. Working backward the periods of melting and (in a different comment) the start of the glaciation period are nice pieces of work, though.

Flashing back to the big picture though, 2 feet, 4 feet, or 6 in 100 years is a pretty shocking shift. The question is not *if* some ocean front real estate is reclaimed, but how much.

Gee, I wonder how fast sea levels are rising. The US Aqua satellite shows a small decline over the last two years.

I could not find a chart or graph on "US Aqua satellite". Do you have a link? I did find this from NASA, which seems to contradict your data.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2005-111

The lowest part Washington D.C. is at sea level on the tidewater Potomac. They might be some of the first to notice if the ocean rises four feet.

The most recent ice age covered as far south as Maine with ice 1.5 - 3 miles thick. Greenland is the remnant of that ice sheet. Two miles of ice disappeared from Maine in about 11,000 years. That was a very fast global warming without the use of coal. During this ice age Europe was covred with boreal forests instead of oaks. A simple truth.

http://www.climatechange.umaine.edu/Research/news/ClimateExplanation/Cli...

An earlier ice age epoch covered North America as far south as near the Indiana-Kentucky border. Carbon dioxide alone cannot account for interglacial warming or glacial cooling. There are many moving parts in the climate model.

Thanks for the same old generalities and - yes - even a lie/mistake. Two points if you can self-correct.

Congrats.

Can I play your game?

There used to be - gasp! - dinosaurs on the Antarctic continent!

What EVER could that mean??!!

Jeers

The "larger size" version of that graph seems to end, I guess, somewhere around end of 2005, so it can't possibly address anything about the last couple of years. (If NASA publicists troubled themselves to read Tufte on chartjunk, the enlarged graph would have light gridlines instead of useless decoration and it would be easy to tell exactly what period it covers.) We need something more current.

What might be a current version (clearer and enlarged here) gives what one could construe, if one wished, as a leveling-off for the last two years. Given the substantial amount of noise, I think I wouldn't care to construe anything yet, but I suppose other people's mileage might vary.

What's unnerving is that even their conservative estimate is pretty horrifying.

And they admit they could be wrong:

"The real unknown right now is what we call the dynamic effect of ice not melting but just being pushed straight into the ocean," Pfeffer added, referring to pieces of ice breaking off from huge masses of ice such as glaciers and ice sheets and floating in the sea.

It's happened VERy abrupty in the past and it could well happen again! I don't know if the mechanisms are fully understood:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/03/020329072043.htm

This event happened near the end of the last Ice Age, a period of de-glaciation that lasted from about 21,000 years ago to 12,000 years ago," Clark said. "The average sea level rise during that period was about eight millimeters per year. But during this meltwater pulse there was an extremely rapid disintegration of an ice sheet and sea levels rose much faster than average."

The amount of sea level rise that occurred during a single year of that period, Clark said, is more than the total sea level rise that has occurred in the past 100 years.

I'm going to do a bit more research and see how they got to the single year conclusion.

Marco.

8mm per year = 3 feet (0.9 M) by 2100

Yes, but the pulse was within this 8mm per year period:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/299/5613/1709?siteid=sci&...

which led to a sea-level rise of ~20 meters in less than 500 years

Thats 40mm per year during the pulse (1A)

heres a good one: finding the source of meltwater pulse 1A
http://records.viu.ca/~earles/mwp1a-mar02.htm

Marco.

I think we're all wringing our hands needlessly, here. If we were to ring our coastlines with storm drains located, say, just above the current mean high tide, we could control sea level rise. This is the same principal that keeps my bathroom sink from overflowing.

Worry warts...

Stop spoiling my doom;-)

Hey, I like that idea. Put in the storm drains, route the seawater through your wastewater treatment plant, then pump it safely out to sea.

You really should indicate that you are trying to be sarcastic, otherwise people might get the impression that you are making a very idiotic suggestion ;-)

Let me demonstrate:

<sarcanol>
Instead of trying to build a 'space elevator', let's start with a 'space staircase'. Once we've built one of these, we can move onto a 'space escalator'.
</sarcanol>

Noted.

Actually, that takes the fun out. Some of us get it without having to be prompted.

But as to your suggestion for the drain...

Who gets to clean the hair out of it?

... except bathroom sinks and storm drains drain to a lower water mark. When water levels rise because of ice-melt, then where are you going to find a lower water level that'll take all that tidal displacement?

Well, for California, there's Death Valley...

E. Swanson

To take things a little further lets put things in perspective here:

Sea level is currently at about its lowest level in about 250M Years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Sea_Level.png

Lets hope we don't return to those days as I suspect we would all be living somewhere around the Hymalias! (Slight exageration)

Also lets hope we don't dig up and burn as much oil as that economist hopes there is still in the ground! otherwise its goodbye New York, hello waterworld. (Great film).

Marco.

Florida is on loan from the sea.

So was Atlantis!

But.. over the past 10 Millenia or so there have also been fairly large movements in sea level (not neccesarily abrupt) During the mid-holocene warm period circa 7000BP sea levels were up to 17m higher than they are now!

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFMGC21B0153M

Stable sea-levels are identified at 17-13 m asl during 7,000-5,500 yrBP

at 11-9 m during 5,000-4,500 14C yr BP, and at < 6 m after 4,000 14C yr BP

The rapid regression occurring between 5,400 yBP (4,100 calib. yrBP) and 4,000 yBP (2,700 calib. yrBP) suggests that some glacial loading had removed around here before 5,400 yBP (4,100 calib. yrBP).

Basically we went from 17m asl (above sea level) to 6m bsl (below sea level) at 4000yBP That is a decrease or change in sea level of 7.6mm per year! In fact it is astounding that sea levels were 17m ABOVE what they are now, not so long ago: 5000BC!

Marco.

oops, this study has it at 6m above current sea level!

http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/jul10/articles29.htm

The one above I think is talking about a relative sea level change from some datum that I don't know! The change in sea level is correct, just not the datum!

Marco.

The amount that sea levels can change is mind blowing. At the lowest point in the last ice age sea level was 120m (meters not centimetres) below its current level. That was only 20,000 years ago.

If you look at the Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level_png, it shows that sea levels have been very stable (2m change) for the last 5,000 years. This allowed us to establish settlements close to water without the need to periodically rebuild. I don't know if this has been researched, but I would guess that stable sea levels are critical to building the ports that allow trade to be established.

When people say that the climate has always been changing and that there is no need to worry now, they forget just how big the changes were compared to the tiny changes we have had during the entire existence of civilisation. Our current infrastructure was built using cheap energy. We have never experienced a mass migration of the infrastructure we use to support our existence, and I think we will find it very difficult in an era of scarce and expensive energy.

This allowed us to establish settlements close to water

I whole heartedly agree. It is no coincidence that the rise of man has been during our brief interglacial maximum which up till now has been relatively satble. So do we have a God given right to the continuance of that satble period knowing fine well it has not been the norm? (referring to earths flip-flops through glacial-interglacial periods where the glacial periods have been far longer than the interglacials - like that which we live in now)

Looking at the very long term, man is either going to flip earth into unstoppable warming (which may trigger some other response) or we dive back down into a glacial period [regardless or not if we have 1000yrs or 10000yrs of the current interglacial still to play out]. From where i'm standing the glacial periods don't look too cosy from a supporting 6.5BN people point of view! Either way we are fairly doomed unless we can geo-engineer ourselves a long interglacial - and I already pointed out yesterday what I thought of that!!

Marco.

The estimates are what, maybe 30k neanderthals alive at any give time who lived during the last glaciation? First city to reach ~1 million population was Rome in 30 AD. After the collapse of the Roman empire, no other city equaled that population until London in the 1800s. As of 2003 there are more than 400 cities with at least one million population. 6.5 bn is an aberration.

"From where i'm standing the glacial periods don't look too cosy from a supporting 6.5BN people point of view!"

Assumeing that in 3500 AD (wild guess in fact most of my numbers are arbritrary) humanity is still around AND we have MASSIVE solar, geothermal, hydro etc. to equal the total energy used now but with 100% renuables. Another assumption is that at that point a new ice age ensues that lowers sea levels to 75? meters below the current level.

Given those two assumptions; humanity could certainly have a population of 6.5 billion in 3500 AD. This is far enough in the future that even a worst case scenerio of a dieoff to 250 miillion occurs by 2150 could be recovered from population wise. In good times human population will double in aprox 50 years unless there are artificial social methods to hold population stable. 250 million to 6.5 billion is only 4 1/2 doublings so ONLY around 2 centuries...

I don't know how to link; google undersea topographic maps NEAR continents and islands. 75 meter lowering of sea levels would add HUGE amounts of new land worldwide that could be farmed. Even 10 meters would add a nontrivial ammount which is obvious if youve swam near a coastline.

Not two cents...my nine cents;)

Ummm, forgot something.
The NEW land exposed from sea level lowering might just equal the new useless areas of glaciers. IMO a mile thick glacier is useless for most things except specialist scientists. I love science BTW;) My point is the useable land would be different and in different locations, however I doubt it would be superior to current conditions. I welcome a real scientist perspective on my oppinions;)

Well the land covered by Glaciers would be in the Northern and mountainous regions while the land exposed by a sea level drop would be across all climates and sedimentary soils. So no its not and equal exchange. Of course the arable belt would also shrink. Given the current positions of our continents with the large land masses near the north pole its a net loss but the effect itself i.e lower sea levels would be directly a gain.

Buuuut :)

More importantly Northern Africa and India along with Arabia would be wetter so this would offset some of the loss in Asia and North America. Same with the American Southwest it was much wetter during the glacial periods.

Soooo :)

Probably a net gain actually :)

Thanks Memmel!

IMO even an expert with a team and large budget would have to make a fair amount of reasoned guesses RE the effects of a serious Ice Age. It is probably just theory without short term usefullness IE I think an ice age in the next 5 centuries is reasonably unlikely.

Global Warming is another story; Canada & Russia would be big winners with Global Warming. With both there is a massive excess of potable water; even reducing rainfall by 60% in Canada & Russia they would have plenty for most uses. What I am curious about is what other countries would benefit from Global Warming. I expect if I'm alive in 2050 I will have witnessed firsthand the effects of Global Warming. Possible as I would be 77 then.

As previously posted on this topic recently, there was also a very fast melt of the Northern European Ice Sheet.

I hope to do a somewhat in-depth overview of the cryosphere changes going on soon... Anyone want to pay their own way here and babysit my 8mo. old Hurricane Conor for a day or two?

;)

Cheers

I've seen the report.

It goes along with that mastodon found with grass in it's mouth.

But the reverse.

Using period volcanic ashes, fossils, and ice cores.

"Now scientists believe they've pinpointed the exact time the northern hemisphere was plunged back into a deep freeze. Examining sediments preserved at the bottom of a remote lake in western Germany, they found that what's known as the Younger Dryas cold period took just a year to sweep across the continent, starting in the autumn, 12,679 years ago."

http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2008/08/younger-dryas-deep-f...

Now that's a scary thought. But, hey, don't worry! PO is the only REAL concern,... climate change ain't and can't gonna happen any time soon!

I'll gladly pay you on Friday for ten acres today....

*sigh*

An object lesson: During the Beijing Olympics the air here in Korea got nearly crystal clear. The only time that ever happens here, thanks to all the imported pollution and and dust from China (those of you inland from LA will understand this phenomenon), is just after a rain. The rest of the time there is a gray haze in the short, medium and long distances. The Haze was back within a few days after the Olympics ended.

Also, there was a study in So Cal back in the late '70's or early '80's that deduced the air quality in So Cal would be well below unhealthy levels after just three days of no cars on the road. That's right. They found 70% of smog in LA comes from car emissions.

Cleaning the air is that simple. (Though perhaps not easy.)

Point? We can change it. But we aren't. If we don't, don't be surprised if you find yourself either a Walking French Fry or Walking Human Popsicle in **possibly** very short order.

Cheers

About that cars and clean air in days.

A report in NW AR, don't know by who, said that one benefit
of all the poultry being raised in the area is that the Ammonia
emitted chemically combines with auto exhaust in a benign way
to clear the air.

Have to look that one up though.

8D

You also may be interested to know that after 9/11 the US atmosphere was discernibly cleaner nationwide due to the widescale grounding of planes here in USA.
Jets especially are gross polluters and their effects are enormous and often understated. In particular day/night temperature variations rapidly increased

www.iac.ethz.ch/people/thcorti/stratos/backgrounder_air_travel.pdf

http://www.iafi.org/
------------------------
The Ice Age Floods
----------------------
Mentally multiply similar events occurring in Greenland, and across the other continents plus jokulhlaups, maybe also a volcanic caldera eruption under the Western Antarctic blowing an ice sheet larger than Mexico--> Google Bentley Subglacial Trench.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glacial_lake_outburst_flood

I posted a very detailed and weblinked text on this back when I first joined TOD--it was deleted for length. :(

It was deleted (and not by me) because the complaints started pouring in as soon as you posted it.

The comment section of someone else's blog is not the place to post a dissertation. It's basic netiquette. If you have that much to say, you should get your own blog, post it there, and link to it.

It just works much better that way. It's much easier to refer back to it later, share the link, etc. And of course, you then have complete control over your writing.

Leanan, as an editor, no head-bonking necessary, whatsoever.

;)

Cheers

I live in Holland, so it is of real concern. You had this link y'day how we Dutch would handle it (story is all over the media here)

I'm not confident about it. My guess is 3 feet would do us in, and I'm afraid this may already be the case in the 2020-2025 timeframe. As noted before land ice melt is accelerating exponentially.

.. and a good skit on the subject by Dominee Gremdaat (for Dutch speakers):

http://www.vk.tv/video/1063706/dominee-gremdaat--dreigend-water.html

Given that there are ZERO papers anywhere stating sea level rise expectations of even 6.6 feet, the article is idiotic. There have been NO statements or research from any reliable scientist for a prediction that high. The closest is anecdotal comments by Hansen, but in the context he made the statements, saying he was saying "by 2100" is a little bit misleading.

Via Live Climate. Here ya go: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/09/how-much-will-sea-...

Now. *I* have made such statements, but even Hansen didn't phrase it that way. The problem with this article is that it says to the public, "Whew! No need to worry! Those silly scientists were exaggerating or just plain wrong!" when they were not. And, most won't pay attention to the fact that TWO METERS of sea level rise is devastating for any and all coastal cities. They will come away with, "They were wrong. Sea level rise isn't that big a problem."

Criminy...

First of all, like the 4 degree C climb we're on right now,

we won't notice the 3rd and 4th degrees because by then we'll
be living in the Stone Age.

Second: Scientists don't model 4 degree C rises for that reason.

All the models that predict more than a meter's rise use fossil fuel consumption at least an order of magnitude greater than the resources that appear to exist if you use the HL modeling that we all here buy for oil consumption. Scary results might be a good way to get attention but that does not make them realistic.

Further fossil fuel consumption is totally irrelevant to the total sea level rise, though it might effect the rate.

If the average temperature of Greenland is sufficient for the ice pack there to melt more than it gains, then sea levels will rise until something happens to reverse the melting or the ice sheet is gone. It is warm enough right now, no further oil consumption needed.

The speed of the rise will depend upon how fast the ice melts and whether/how much ice simply floats on the meltwater straight into the ocean to melt there. More CO2 might speed things up.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst, as always.

Further fossil fuel consumption is totally irrelevant to the total sea level rise

Hmm...

The speed of the rise will depend upon how fast the ice melts

Which will be influenced by how much the temperature rises. Which will be effected by how much CO2 is put in the air by burning fossil fuels.

The extent of the melting is not now known. If the trajectory of CO2 emissions peaks at around 460ppm as the HL of fossil fuels says it will according to Dave Rutledge at CalTech, then the temperature rise will max at about 1.6 Degrees C and then start to decline. The Greenland ice cape will not all melt from that.

I don't remember what Rutledge exactly claims, but from previous discussions here I do remember this: his assumptions are not very believable.[Edited to b nice.] I'm fairly sure, for example, his predictions do not include 6C for doubling of CO2 nor the releases of carbon and methane from permafrost and seafloor hydrates. (Please correct me if I am wrong.) Anything not including those - carbon in the permafrost is now calculated to be equal to 100% of the total carbon now in the atmosphere - is out of date, if not buffoonery. Perhaps he'll update his work. I'd suggest people not post it until he does.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080901084854.htm
Thawing Permafrost Likely To Boost Global Warming, New Assessment Concludes
The study, by Edward A. G. Schuur of the University of Florida and an international team of coauthors, more than doubles previous estimates of the amount of carbon stored in the permafrost: the new figure is equivalent to twice the total amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The authors conclude that releases of the gas from melting permafrost could amount to roughly half those resulting from global land-use change during this century.

http://sapoton.idoo.com/m.html

...Warm and wet

Ed Dlugokencky, the scientist at Noaa's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) who collates and analyses data from atmospheric monitoring stations, agrees that the 2007 rise has a biological cause.

"We're pretty sure it's not biomass burning; and I think 2007 is probably down to wetland emissions," he said.

"In boreal regions it was warmer and wetter than usual, and microbes there produce methane faster at higher temperatures."

Dr Dlugokencky also suggested that the drastic reduction in summer sea ice around the Arctic between 2006 and 2007 could have increased release of methane from seawater into the atmosphere.

Gas ring. Image: PA

A further possibility is that the gas is being released in increasing amounts from permafrost as temperatures rise.

Researchers will be keeping a close eye on this year's data which will indicate whether 2007 was just a blip or the beginning of a sustained rise.

Methane concentrations had been more or less stable since about 1999 following years of rapid increases, with industrial reform in the former Soviet bloc, changes to rice farming methods and the capture of methane from landfill sites all contributing to the levelling off...

The amount of the gas held in oceanic hydrates is thought to be larger than the Earth's remaining reserves of natural gas.

http://www.thelocal.se/14032/20080830/

http://www.alaska.edu/uaf/cem/ine/walter/thermokarst.xml

http://www.aftertek.com/arctic-ice-meltdown-caused-by-release-of-methane...

As a note: your baseline researcher for climate change should not be an outlier. I suggest Hansen (though some likely consider his conclusions outliers) as he has been... um... what do you call it?.... Correct!

Cheers

Rutledge does not include more recently discovered feedback loops as he uses the MAGICC climate model for this predictions.

MAGICC (used in the third IPCC assessment; http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/) includes some but no means all feedback mechanisms.

More here:
Peak Oil and Climate Change Q & A
http://www.inspiringgreenleadership.com/blog/aangel/peak-oil-and-climate...

This is a (fairly large) omission in his analysis, in my view.

The more recent version has been updated but I haven't examined whether it includes the pertinent feedback mechanisms. Perhaps someone else will chime in. Buffoonery is stronger language than I would use because I think that Rutledge is authentic in his commitment to advance the thinking in this area.

As a note: your baseline researcher for climate change should not be an outlier.

Rutledge is not a climate change researcher. He has made the best case I have seen for remaining fossil fuels.

I have not studied the climate models but I know that if they assume 13 times the coal that we can actually expect to consume then they have to be wrong.

Regarding outliers, it is possible for nearly everyone or for a big, respected faction to be wrong. Look at the debate on nuclear power.

If people can't understand Peak Oil, or discover the Export Land Model independently by simple logic, fat chance they will ever understand the complex infrastructure effects of a six-inch rise in sea level in many American cities and low-lying coastal areas. Heck, even I don't, which is why I once downloaded a long Federal planning report for the Gulf Region on that very subject. But my hard drive crashed and I can't recall where I obtained it.

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report/sap4-7-fin...

My your hard drive live long and prosper.

Quick edit - it's no wonder your drive crashed - thats a 10MB PDF!!

Here is the summary:

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report

Thank you.

Yeah, I remember it being pretty big. I have sworn to use only flash drives to store files from now on, so I hope I remember to grab this when I get home.

I wouldn't... flash drives are less reliable than hard drives.

Just make sure you have two or more independent copies of anything important. The more important, the more copies, and the more independent they should be...

It's simple: the world is a giant bathtub. More so where there are bays, inlets, etc. What happens when you slosh in the tub? What happens when you add water and slosh in the tub?

Cheers

The Federal report was about very detailed (and expensive) effects like increased road repairs, conduit repairs, pipeline repairs, etc in Louisiana and Mississippi and Texas. You move that shoreline, and lots of property still inland gets affected. Bad news for the refineries.

A very slow gradual rise in sea level could be adapted to with some infrastructure improvements. What is more likely is melt water from the top of the ice cap falls through cracks and then lifts and lubricates the cap causing a sudden surge of ice into the ocean. All that ice flowing in to the sea in perhaps one summer would case a fast sea level rise and could be a global disaster. Hundreds of millions of people would need to move to higher ground over the course of a few months would create an extreme economic burden for every nation with ocean front property.

These are the very sort of un-understood dynamics that make the climate researchers throw caveats into their studies. Earthquakes triggering mass slides is another possible factor.
Research and time will tell.

I wonder where we can find World maps on-line that depict the new shorelines after sea level rises of 'only' 2.6-6.6 feet?