223 comments on DrumBeat: September 6, 2008
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
223 comments on DrumBeat: September 6, 2008
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
- Oilwatch Monthly November 2009
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
- The Bullroarer - Friday 20th November 2009
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“The infrastructure of suburbia can be described as the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world.”
—JH Kunstler
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
Re: Ike tracking above.
I think it's still expected to recurve but New Orleans seems under threat again as of latest (5am EDT) update. The whole of Florida and from the panhandle right along the coast to the landfall point of Gustav is currently in the 5 day cone. Galveston will be in it soon enough unless the models shift back east.
Some more imagery links
Noaa http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
Navy http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Hadar http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0....
Storm2k Ike discussion
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102847
I would think that evacuees are going to have problems getting the gasoline to drive away from the storm(s).
Even if they could, they won't.
"After a helicopter trip over the Baton Rouge area, Public Service Commissioner Jimmy Field said the storm knocked down 20 of the area's transmission towers that follow the Mississippi River along the 80 miles between New Orleans and the capital.
"This was a perfect storm, if you wanted to destroy as much of the generation and the transmission alley that we have," Field said.
Entergy Corp., the region's top power company, agreed with Field's prediction about the Baton Rouge. By contrast, the company predicted that power would be fully restored in New Orleans on Monday."
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D93092700.htm
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/trackmap_zoom1.html
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2008/IKE/images/Storm-09-Sp...
I'm putting Ike into Pascagula as a Cat 3.
Mobile, Cat 3
Bite your tongue. :)
Ed. Pensacola. No cats. One beagle.
Oklahoma City, Cat 1
Massive quantities of gasoline (some diesel) is going into generators. 31% of Louisiana w/o power as of last night. As power is restored, the generators often move to those still in need. Add the gasoline burned coming back and driving further to make groceries (I am fortunate with my 2.5 block walk).
OTOH, all but one refinery now has power and, according to Gov. Jindal, all went into "warm shutdown" that allows for oen day back into production once labor, natural gas, crude etc are available. Labor force is an issue at some refineries.
Distribution from refinery to station may be the weak link. Also "gas on the road" has been depleted.
Best Hopes,
Alan
11am update continues to make the threat to New Orleans more credible.
NHC just downgraded Ike to Cat 2 minutes before recon went in and found a strong Cat 3 with one surface reading supporting Cat 4. Looks very bad for Cuba right now.
Take care Alan (and everyone else in its path).
Been Lucky so far (knock on wood) this year, the 11am report has it going 162 miles south of me. Far enough that it should just be a little wind and we could use some rain.
Hanna took a nice curve off to the east around us before heading over to the U.S. We had about 30mph of wind from her.
Good Luck to all
Ed
5pm update is out. Ike track still homing ever more tightly on New Orleans vicinity. Latest NHC has a Cat 3 approaching the coast with the extrapolated track right over the city. Fortunately there's still a huge error cone but still...
As of now, Ike has just been upgraded again to a Cat 4. Someone is probably getting their arse kicked at the NHC for incorrectly downgrading it to Cat 2 earlier today without evidence. What is so unusual is that they normally would err too high with the comment "perhaps a little generous" rather than prematurely downgrade.
Alan, is their talk in NO of another evac yet?
I think Gustav and Ike are going to cause real inventory problems in every catagory
Over 90% of GOM oil production is still shut-in. With Ike heading for the GOM by Thursday will the operators bother to start up only to have to shut down again in 72 or 96 hours?
If Ike does come into the GOM and cause evacuations it could mean that GOM will be shut down for three weeks, if the markets can handle that disruption then we can say there is plenty of oil and NG in the market.
With respect to oil spot prices I wonder if some refiners have backed out of the market in the short-term, they lost a week of production due to Gustav, possibly another week to come, and the oil they had ordered prior to Gustav (as long as it wasn't GOM oil) will still be on the way.
I assume the refiners will try and make as much gasoline as they can in the next few days to help with the evacuation plans, it should help in New Orleans due to proximity, not sure about Florida.
Latest numbers from MMS (Sept. 6)
Most rigs / platforms now have crews (according to the same release)
Meanwhile, Entergy reports:
Total Customer Outages 400,611
Total Customers Restored since Sept. 1: 563,327 58%
Add back releases from the SPR. Enough to raise inventories to the desired level, slightly above MOL.
Alan
I tried to follow the Gustav predictions in TOD, but ultimately I found it very confusing -- were any of the models predicting Gustav behavior highly successful? Which ones worked?
GFDL. OHPC. And The Hurricane Center.
but they kept wanting to push gustav to the West.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml
Watch the models as an aggregate.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png
The CLIPS, SHIPS models are there to complete the spectrum, it
seems to me.
The relevant models are generally:
GFS, BAMM (BAMMS = shallow, BAMMD = Deep), UKMET, CMC, GFDL, NOGAPS.
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/modelsmap_zoom1.html
Thanks-- I've bookmarked them.
Ike's history from 01 Sep to 06 Sep 2008:
And a visible satellite image that's close to the time of the last statement depicted in the above graph (approx 1500Z):
The CDO appears to be washing out the eye to a large extent.
-best,
Wolf
The eye has cleared out far more noticeably on the latest image (1555). Also recon finding pressure well down and winds well up. Consensus on storm2k is last NHC update (Cat 2) seems bad (which is very rare).
Edit: Recon just issued a corrected pressure reading "Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)...(Corrected)"
Further edit: NHC upgraded again to Cat 3. Recon now just supporting Cat 4 so they may have to upgrade again before it hits Cuba although it is likely to weaken quite severely over Cuba (unless it just skims the island).
EDIT as now redundant
Typed a longish reply then closed the tab. Bah. Keeping it short
Official stuff at NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
Current as of (21:30GMT/UTC/Zulu) status is
Real time updates are posted at Storm2k Ike discussion
Storm2k also has recon threads, model threads, met forecast threads but if you read the main discussion thread for a bit you'll find links to just about everything relevant.
Good satellite image collection at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
Thanks Undertow- appreciated.
I edited out my question as I did a bit of hunting around, but the info you have given me is very useful!
Interestingly Ike is currently heading dangerously close (to the south) of the British overseas territory of Turks and Caicos on its way to Cuba as a Cat 4 (when the NHC had dropped the forecast to Cat 2 earlier today).
Wunderground shows two weather stations on the islands which will be interesting to watch.
The HAM site shows a really grave situation:
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2008/atlantic/ike/modelsmap_zoom1.html
HAMweather Tropical Center: Hurricane Ike Forecast Models
Winds of 144mph hitting Cuba, which is a very high Cat 4, and the expected track going unerringly towards New Orleans.
Looks like Guantanamo Bay may get a bit of Ike coming down on it. I hope the people are evacuated, but the structure is destroyed...
Does anyone know what the hurricane contingency plans are for Gitmo? I can't imagine those tents are hurricane-proof.
I'm sure Castro would let everyone just stay in his guest house! (sarconal added, of course)
And sure enough, the 5am update has Galveston in the 5-day cone of a Cat 3. The next 24-36 hours or so are going to be crucial in figuring out where this thing is going and what Cuba will do to it.
Florida Keys still in danger. Evacuation going ahead.