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112 comments on DrumBeat: September 7, 2008
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112 comments on DrumBeat: September 7, 2008
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I don't suppose we have any way to know if that article's info includes decline, eh? Using the assumptions of 6% decline, as you state, 86mmb/d for '08 and only 1% increase in demand per year we would need 40,000,000mb/d by 2015. Using 2005, I also get 50mb/d needed.
It's critical to know if the writer and the study are including decline or not. If they are claiming those numbers with decline included, someone is lying through their teeth, or they are going to go all out then we'll have a massive crash in production.
Cheers
Well, I don't know if it's any good, but adding up the upcoming production from the Gulf states mentioned in the megaprojects list would result in about 8.5 mbd new production coming online in the years 2008-2014. Assuming in good faith that the list has a minimum of completeness regarding major projects (and that my calculation isn't wrong) I think it seems not very likely that the proclaimed increase is decline-adjusted. But then, what do I know?
You probably know more about forecasting future oil production than Proleads does (but they know that marketing and promotion is the bottom line).