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164 comments on Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae bailout: Guess Who Wins
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164 comments on Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae bailout: Guess Who Wins
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Where are we going to get the money? Next year fiscal deficit will be about 500 Billion. These guys are nut -- I am sick of passing all the debts to the next generation.
Paulson is helping his friends out in this bailout. Too many bankers are heavily involved with the toxic mess that created the current crisis and yet they got the pat in the back. Sheesh -- what a democrazy we have here.
Democrazy is an apt description, but kakistocracy works as well.
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/kakistocracy
"Government under the control of a nation's worst or least-qualified citizens."
If you read past the pin factory in Adam Smith's WEALTH OF NATIONS, he ultimately says that the business class is the least qualified to run the government because they will ultimately tip all of the rules to their own profit. Sounds familiar.
Good point!
And Founding Father Thomas Jefferson believed that farmers were "the most precious part of a state," "the chosen people of God," and the only ones who could be trusted with governance, because they were self-reliant. For Jefferson, landholding and working the land kept a man honest and virtuous. The purpose of farming was not to generate excessive wealth, but to permit a decent independent lifestyle, and government’s role was to protect the freehold farmer. Through technological improvements—and not the slave labor and large farms that characterized commercial agriculture—ordinary men could “escape the tyranny of their social superiors.”[ii]
They're going to borrow the money. This isn't a taxpayer bailout because nobody's talking about raising taxes to pay for it. This is a bailout through inflation so the people who are really paying are savers and holders of U.S. dollars around the world.
Once the government can no longer borrow money from foreign creditors at reasonable interest rates the Federal Reserve will begin to monetize the debt by just creating new money out of thin air. Welcome to the hyperinflationary depression. I think we'll call it The Greater Depression.
This is along the lines I was thinking. The government is "printing" the extra money needed for these banks. Through this additional injection of money into the system I'd expect the dollar to weaken and inflation to continue to increase, unless demand is somehow curtailed at the same rate that money is being created.
It would be helpful to talk in terms most people can understand. So my question is: What does this move do to the purchasing power of an American family with about the median income over the next few months to few years?
no matter whoever takes whatever moves, either the income will be diminished (through the massive unemployment and diminished economic activities brought on by the deflation) or the purchasing power of the income will be diminished (through the inflation).
...hyperinflationary depression.
Yeah, that's what I think. That's two catastrophes at the same time. But you're leaving out one more: war.
Davebygolly,
I know what a balloon going up is like and I know what it is like when it goes down but going both directions at once sort of stretches the imagination. Our pretty balloon has a hole in it and unless hydrogen in equals hydrogen out we can only have a uppy or downy balloon.
Now show me how that equilibrium will come about. Housing down, markets down, big bucket bailouts, ... Could be this moon but while I think the guys got the sentiment right thier direction is 180 off. I think they hadn't quite got the last of this out of their imagination.
You have to wonder why Japan and other nations have lent us so much money, already. There has to be a hidden political element to this.
In the case of Japan, maybe it's that we have our mitts on the oil spigot, and so they have to settle for a crappy return and ultimately take a currency loss.
Of certain oil producing nations, we protect their rulers and they buy our Treasuries, knowing that they must never, ever cash them in.
Hyperinflationary depression...exactly. John Williams called it back in April and so far it looks like he's been right on the money: Shadow Government Statistics HYPERINFLATION SPECIAL REPORT
Just for context the Japanese National debt is around 188% of GNP, and their population is due to age rapidly and fall.
I haven't got a clue how that compares to the various off-budget items and so on in the US, or what the off-budget items are for the Japanese.
When they had their crash in the early 90's they spent huge sums on public works programs, with perfectly smooth roads to nowhere.
What the heck is going on, and who is more broke than who I have no idea - but I suppose that is the point for those carrying out the shell game.
Dave, One also needs to consider unfunded liabilities when looking at a country. Americans have 5 times the amount of federal government unfunded liabilities than we have in federal government debts. Financial models that do not consider the growth-stunting effects of Peak Oil already show huge financial problems developing due to an aging population and unfunded entitlements. Former US Comptroller David Walker likens this problem to a fiscal cancer.
I laugh at McCain and Obama trying hard to get elected because either one of them is going to see this problem grow much larger on their watch as the Baby Boomers start to retire. Whoever gets elected is therefore going to be unpopular.
Yeah, but a lot of those unfunded liabilities will simply not be honoured - this is particularly true for intergenerational transfers.
Most of the liabilities for pensions and health care will either be inflated away to nothing or defaulted on.
International obligations are more difficult, or your credit rating goes, but Gramps may find himself with a much reduced life expectancy.
The size of the debt is a large problem but there's one that compounds that problem. The largest problem that NOBODY talks about is HOW WE FINANCE THE NATIONAL DEBT. The average maturity of the national debt is about three years. That means we have to repay half of the debt every three years by refinancing it with new debt. (Balance transferring from one credit card to another.)
If this was like the 1970's when the national debt was financed with 30 year bonds there wouldn't be so much need to worry. Just like if your home has a 30-year fixed rate you don't care how high rates go, you don't need to refinance. But if you were required to refinance your home every three years you'd be in deep trouble.
The current debt is almost 10 trillion dollars. (This doesn't include unfunded liabilities which is another HUGE problem I won't go into.) If the average interest rate paid is 3% the annual interest cost is $300 billion. If short term rates rise to 9%, then three years later (after refinancing half the debt) the average interest rate will be 6% therefore doubling the interest paid to $600 billion dollars per year. That's the MOST IMMEDIATE FED GOV FINANCIAL EMERGENCY IMHO.
It's worse than that. There is a short-term finance crisis as well as long-term.
Ronnie Reagan financed the arms expansion by issuing 30 year bonds.
For the last Iraq war the finance came, in an act of genius, by the issuance of 10 year bonds.
So of course they all mature within the next few years, creating a huge spike in financing.
I did not bother keeping the reference, as we are screwed anyway, but 09, 10, 11 and 12 are the years they mostly mature from memory.
Congress voted in July to raise the national debt ceiling by 800 billion dollars to 10.6 trillion basically to pave the way for Paulson to do this.
http://wedeclare.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/must-we-die-before-this-stops/
So those foreign countries which buy up our debt will finance it for us until our great grand kids pay it off. China loves to buy our debt, The bank of China is the top foreign preferred stock holder...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chinese-government-top-foreign-hol...
So we're borrowing from them to pay them... among others...