I will probably modify my talk on "Peak Everything -Non-energy Limits" to something more related to the last 2 weeks in the energy markets..it will remain a surprise (to me as well...;-)

To me the last two weeks demonstrated:

1)that too many investors got into energy without understanding it. Reflexivity is alive and well
2)impact of money > impact of hurricane shut in production (or anything else for that matter) on energy prices
3)marginal cost increases have so far only hurt expected earnings, not raised commodity pricing
4)the 'belief' in peak oil probably took a major psychological back seat
5)fannie mae bailout, GM easy loans, etc are even more examples of steep discount rated behaviour - e.g. living for the moment irrespective of future costs
6)not only do we need high price signal for alt energy change, but we need economy to not be in dumper otherwise most people can't afford paradigm shift
7)wealth inequality is going to continue to increase
8)the average ASPO attendee will be poorer in monetary terms (but perhaps have more knowledge...)
9)that if you watch hurricanes, markets, and TOD, while drinking beer you will gain about 1 pound/day

One factor which I would not discount is forced selling of energy positions, in order to raise cash to meet other obligations.

yup. see #1 and #2 above. i think prime brokers are forcing their clients to reduce leverage too (e.g. if a large hedge fund had $3 billion in capital - they could control $15 billion in energy (or other things), but now the broker is telling them - only 6 billion, meaning if they had full positions of short finance stocks and long energy (either commodity or stocks), they now HAVE to unwind...which is:
a)sending bad signal to policymakers
b)making incredible long term investment opportunities for others
c)making it less likely they will send bad signal to policymakers next time up...
d)scaring the crap out of people

Bill Gross of PIMCO has posted his Sept newsletter which goes a long way in explaining what is occuring in all markets.

http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm

David

i pretty much agree with his general explanation -this has been a deleveraging and has impacted the markets that were most leveraged (in short term).

It is also there is a spring in his step while writing that - PIMCO was one of the only buyers of mortgages in past few weeks ahead of FNM/FRE bailout, they had windfall yesterday in the billions (mortgages tightened 2 point and only widened today about 6 ticks)

I am not sure Mr. Gross understands energy howerver. I wonder if he will be attending ASPO - last year I would say about 1/6 of attendees were hedge fund types...

I came across this article this evening which may be of interest to you. Don Coxe writes BASIC POINTS for the Bank of Montreal and has been very bullish on oil for the past +5 years.

This article gives another aspect to what is occuring in the markets.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GAM.20080910.RHEINZL10/GIStory/

9) that if you watch hurricanes, markets, and TOD, while drinking beer you will gain about 1 pound/day

This effect was first noted in 1978 by an obscure researcher by the name of B. Phatter. It's not generally known, but his paper Synchronistic Weather and Petroleum Events and their Impact on Weight Gain led to the modern day Jenny Craig.

Among his findings was the observation that wives didn't like bad weather, petroleum events or weight gain, especially on their husbands. Other researchers downplayed Phatter's paper as, "Bloody obvious" and "So self-evident as to be meaningless. Hasn't he ever had a girlfriend?"