If memory serves, Rita was initially projected to hit South Texas, and it ended up hitting the TX/LA border area.

A reminder of the damage caused by the 1900 Galveston hurricane, as it moved inland (note that it became a hurricane after it moved past Cuba):

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/1900hurr.htm

Most accounts of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 stop here and focus on the human tragedy that hung over the devastated city. Although the storm winds likely dropped below hurricane force shortly after the storm moved inland, the storm continued its destructive path into Texas, before crossing the southern Plains states and finally recurving to the northeast to pass across the lower Great Lakes. It eventually reached the Atlantic Ocean after crossing over the Canadian Maritime Provinces and Newfoundland on September 12-13.

Along the Texas coast and just inland, the towns of Texas City, Dickinson, Lamarque, Hitchcock, Arcadia, Alvin, Manvel, Brazoria, Columbia and Wharton suffered great damage and loss of life and property. Over half of the buildings in Houston were damaged. Along a path two hundred miles wide, wind and rain blasted inland Texas from the Gulf to the Red River Valley. The inland towns of Hempstead, Chapel Hill, Brenham and Temple were ravaged.

Nuclear plants are designed to handle tornado type winds -235 mph plus. The Turkey Point plant was right in the eyewall of Hurricane Andrew, and I seem to recall that they measured 145mph before the anemometer failed. Most have containment berms and other protective measures that would keep storm surge from being much of a factor.

Take a look at:
http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/gen-comm/info-notices/1993...
and
http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/gen-comm/info-notices/1993...

Key lesson "learned" from Andrew is that while containment and safety systems do ok, all of the support equipment gets trashed so the plant is down for an extended period of time.

Texas officials spent all day Tuesday debating whether they should issue a mandatory evacuation (1,000,000 people) for the Rio Grande Valley, and instead pulled the FEMA people out and moved them to Austin "out of harms way."

Meanwhile, the forecast track has changed.

Since Rita, I've heard a lot of people say "We're staying right here" if it happens again. It was insane putting people out on a highway (and away from food and shelter) when they would have been better off at home. I think it's going to take a Katrina level problem, rescuing people from their rooftops, before an evacuation order is taken very seriously, given how poorly the forecasting has been.

On Sunday they were evacuating the Florida Keys. A couple days before that they were talking about Miami getting wiped off the planet. Yesterday it was Brownsville. I know I'm jaded, but it's just too fluid right now. By tonite they'll be saying Beaumont is in the crosshairs, probably.

The nuke plant is a good ways inland...about 30 to 40 miles at least. No storm surge problem there. Been a while since I drove by it but I remember lot of concrete so I'll guess wind won't be a problem for the plant proper. The transmission lines are a whole different game though.

After watching the latest N.O. evac seem somewhat unnecessary and remembering all the horror stories from the Rita evac I suspect many won't leave. But I just watched the latest loop of Ike. He's really assymetric...the east side is really strong and wet. Even if he hits 120 miles SW of us there could still be some serious problems here. Especially with electrical loss. Lots and lots of trees around Houston = thousand of downed lines.

That would be like five people. We're talking South Texas, not exactly the fitness capital of the world :)

That said, the latest update of Jeff's Wunderblog should sober up anyone along the coast taking this too lightly.

The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic scenario of what could happen to Texas from Ike. These models intensify Ike right up until landfall, hitting between Corpus Christi and Port O'Connor as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. The HWRF predicts a 120-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. An 80-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 30 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 15-20 foot storm surge. As seen in the maximum storm tide risk map for the Texas coast (Figure 6), a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide will bring a 15-foot storm surge to Corpus Christi, Port O'Connor, or Galveston. Maximum surge values will be higher at the heads of inland estuaries that act to funnel the storm surge as it rushes inland. Ike is already generating tides 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

The scenario above is a little less extreme than what the worst hurricane in Texas history wrought. Hurricane Carla of 1961 was a massive Category 4 hurricane that filled the entire Gulf of Mexico, and brought 145 mph winds to the coast near Port Lavaca. Carla drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I doubt Ike will measure up to Carla, but it could (5% chance).