![]() | Hurricane Ike and Oil Refineries/Infrastructure Damage Models Thread #3 (21:00 EDT 9/11) | The Oil Drum | POLL: CLV08 went through $102/bbl..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will... | ![]() |
212 comments on DrumBeat: September 11, 2008
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212 comments on DrumBeat: September 11, 2008
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I agree. The theory assumes (almost) BAU until the singularity happens. I say "almost" because he does allow for some disruptions, just no major disruption that will alter the course of progress. Peak oil will be a major disruption.
There is another very serious flaw in his theory, to my mind anyway. It simply assumes that Moore's Law is valid and will not reach any physical limits before the singularity happens. But we live in a physical finite world and there are always limits. Just because we have not reached them yet does not mean they do not exist.
Current top computer clock speeds are about 3.3 gigahertz. (Most run at much lower speeds because of problems encountered at this speed.) Trying to go higher leads to a lot of physical problems. That is not to say they will not go higher because they almost certainly will but not that much higher. Moore's Law is about to hit a brick wall as far as clock speeds go.
Going off topic and technical for a moment, the bigger problem for lots of workloads at the moment is the memory wall
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAM#Memory_wall
Essentially, depending what type of computation you're doing the dominant time contribution may not actually be calculational operations but waiting for data to be shoveled onto/off-of the chip/cache memory. (I'm actually sitting at work right now pondering how to mitigate this for a particular problem.) This is a big problem because, at the moment, there's very little support for automated code modification to ameliorate this effect. Likewise there's no particular problem getting theoretically greater computing power/dollar (the "generalised Moore's law" most computing people care about) by putting multiple processing cores in one package. The difficulty is actually having programs which can actually use a substantial fraction of the theoretically available capacity due to the aforementioned memory wall and the related problem of ensuring consistency of shared data available to multiple processing units ("locking"). The primary difficulty with getting greater computational abilities is the difficulty of writing the software; indeed my doubts about the singularity model are not based on physical limits, for which there are plausible technologies going at least up to the level postulated for the singularity, but that I'm not seeing anything like the progress in augmenting human deep thought with computational aids (which are needed for things like writing software to take advantage of the newer machines). Implicit in Kurzweil's writings is a feedback loop that I just don't see there.
Incidentally, people don't realise how seriously the generalised Moore's law is taken in computing: in my "assume the scenario that a severe energy crunch isn't happening now" planning, I'm working on projects that will only make sense practically if we get 10 more years of Moore's law (which translates to roughly a factor of 100 times more computation/dollar). (But then there has been a factor of 10000 increase since my first PC 20 years ago so this sort of thing has happened before.)
The memory wall has ben with us for many years, although it is getting worse. It is not that bandwidth (the ability to move data around), isn't also improving, its just that we are improving bandwidth at a slower rate than we are improving the capability to manipulate the data once it is inside the processing chip. I think one of the problems stems from the propensity of theoretical computer science to think of complexity in terms of logical (or floating point) operations to accomplish a task. But, as you have noted, in the real world, it is usually about the ability to move the data around, and algorithmic choices to enable more to be done with less data motion, are harder to quantify, and computer memory is getting very messy, with various types and levels of caches, memory buses, and memory chips, and disk atorage. It just doesn't lend itself to easy analysis anymore.
I think Moores law (which was always about the number of components (transistors) on a chip, not speed) will run for about your decade. Beyond that, barring some major technical advances, I think it begins to dramatically slow the rate of increase. That will present a major paradigm shift for the whole business model. Currently (I work in engineering software) customers are advancing towards exponentially more difficult computations, at some point the ability to make progress this way (at least by application of brute force), will be over, and further progress will become very hard. I suspect we will see this transition in ten to twenty years from now. Clearly the business model, of buying new hardware and software every couple of years because the old stuff is obsolete will have to change. Sortof the computaional equivalent of the end of growth.
IMHO I think Kurzweil is a fruitcake.
It will come to be seen that "human deep thought" is not really all that deep, and the current hardware (say, that 3.3 gigahertz chip with 4 gig of RAM of our humble 32-bit PCs) is more than up to the task.
What's lacking is a proper understanding of elemental human thought processes. When such is attained, coding will be one foot after the other, and the coders will be astonished at how few steps have to be taken.
For now, researchers like Lenat are on the wrong track.
That's probably true (although I fall into the camp of AI that thinks there is "the intelligence algorithm" is taking things too simply), but my point was that human cognition has various pattern recognition, abstraction, generalisation, extrapolative facilities which power creative scientific an engineering work. You can write something like Microsoft Bob/Clippy that attempts to augment my mind by making very simple suggestions (that most people think are more annoying than useful). But there's virtually no stuff that has actually been created that actually works so far that improves my "deep thought" abilities (eg, suggesting patterns in experimental results). If there were, a positive feedback loop enabling the creation of ever more complex technologies like Kurzweil suggests is plausible. But so far I don't just see it.
I cant agree with that at all. First of all, only the internal clocks of a computer actually run in the gigahertz. Overall, the speeds are limited by such things as a hard drive, which can only transfer data at around 100MB/s. Rather than looking at raw clock speeds of each individual component, it is better to look at the average number of Gigaflops of a typical computer. That number is steadily increasing regardless of clock speed. Gigaflops per watt is also a very important number, and also increasing exponentially.
And by the way, computers have totally changed the way we think. Even on a fundamental level. Kids growing up today are living in a world that is virtually alien compared to my experiences growing up. Brainwave patterns are being altered. Minds are being destroyed. Witness the result. A nation of morons, getting dumber every day, many unable to find the US on a map. Unable to use logic and critical thinking skills. Those that are able to use these skills are often unable to do so while using the right half of their brain. Half the population is suffering from lack of basic knowledge, as if mental pathways have been shorted out. The other half of the population that can process basic knowledge is unable to apply a right brain filter. This is a very grim situation, and most people fail to understand the scope of it. Of the two sides of the brain necessary to understand this, one or both have been suppressed. Either through chemicals (fluoride, mercury, lead, aspartame), drugs (from ritalin to ecstasy), electromagnetic (cell phones, power lines, cordless devices), and visual brainwave manipulation (tv & video & video games). It is a coctail of mental suppressants. All made possible by computers, either directly or indirectly.
Hard to say-the older, pre computer generation of Americans (55+) is mostly brain dead.
Try 57+ ;-)
Why I could tell you about PDP8s, paper tape punch, jammin in assembler, card decks, etc.
Color monitors interwhat - hahahahahaha.
Pete
Nothing like running a deck and putting a 360 into an endless loop. Man, that fanfold paper just kept flying out of that thing. Just amazing what a hole in a piece of cardboard can accomplish :-)
Just much better at playing possum.
I beg to differ on this. Human thinking, in my view, has not changed in its most fundamental ways as far as I can tell.
Many people still think there is such a thing as "truth" for instance beyond it being a linguistic construct. I think this idea has been around for a very long time and is the source of many arguments over time. There are many other fundamental human thinking patterns that seem to have not changed for as long as we have written records.
Witness the emotion that arises on blogs such as this one when people start to defend their thinking as "true."
I'll agree with both of you. People are fundamentally the same but electronic media has probably emphasized very different parts of our minds and brains than has happened before. The constant changes in images on TV and in the movies and on computer screens is constantly triggering reflexes in our brains that never got so much exercise before. In addition many of us are bathed in low level RF fields. I'm not saying this is bad, just pointing out that we are changing ourselves with our technology.
It's changed over time, but more as a result of modern society requiring different ways of thinking to succeed than as a result of computers.
In particular, people now are much better at abstract thought than people 50 or 100 years ago. This has led to the Flynn Effect, which is that scores on IQ tests go up substantially with every generation; it's not that people are smarter, it's just that they're more used to thinking in the way that IQ tests test.
But I agree with you that nothing significant has changed. Complaining about computers making kids stupid is just the same old "kids these days! why, when I was a boy..." rant wearing modern clothing.
That's because, in most cases, there is. The problem is that most people don't realize that they don't know it.
To take a simple example, I've seen vehement arguments on gun control, with both sides arguing that their position reduces crime and the other position increases it. One of these sides is factually correct, but it's quite clear from reading the arguments that nobody involved knows which side that is; they just know which side they like, and have confused that with it being true.
For any question about the state of the physical world, there is generally a true answer. The problem is that people too often confuse physical questions ("will gun law X lower crime in area Y in period Z?") with moral questions ("is gun control good?"), and it's a lot less clear there's any kind of objective truth about the latter.
Exactly - too many people are defending their thinking, and not their argument.
They've confused a moral question ("is current society good?") with a physical question ("is it possible to transition away from oil?"), and so they're having exactly the same kind of muddled, nonsensical arguments that you always find when that happens. It's basically plugging your ears and shouting "I believe!" over and over, and it's about as useful and as persuasive as that sounds.
If one wants to actually figure out what's going on with the world, one should:
Note that one's beliefs don't actually enter into the picture anywhere. That's not accidental; when it comes to the physical state of the world, your (or my) beliefs are irrelevant as compared to the evidence.
If you're curious, you can add an additional step in between #3 and #4:
That's purely an internal updating step, though; it shouldn't actually change what evidence you have or what hypotheses you come to.
Doing this will give you an argument to a conclusion that is based on evidence, rather than opinion. What's key about that (aside from the fact that it's a lot more likely to give you access to the physical truth of the matter) is that it's enormously more persuasive than an opinion-based argument, as you don't need to convince the person to accept your moral judgements. A proper evidence-based argument should require no effort on your part to convince people - anyone with an open mind can see for themselves how the conclusions follow from the data.
(This, incidentally, is why the scientific method was so important. It's not so much about doing science as communicating science.)
I like to indulge in a little hyperbole myself, but really...
I think I have a little perspective on this.
Being bored in retirement, I started taking classes last year at my local community college after being out of school for 30 years. I admit I shared the common misperception that today's kids are fat, lazy, and stupid. But, you know...just t'ain't so.
First,I did not find rampant obesity that I expected. I suspect there are marginally more overweight kids than 30 years ago, and those kids may be farther outside of the bell-shaped curve than overweight kids of 30 years ago which may skew our perception of them as fat, but...nope, for the most part 18 year olds have the same perfect bodies they've always had.
Second, I did not find them to be lazy once they had some real creative stimulation. It seems accurate, however, to say that they seem less motivated to study and work hard than kids of 30 years ago when they are not really into the subject.
Now, as for stupid...well, that is just silly. It does seem true that they have been 'taught the test'. But I found them very quick to pick up on critical thinking skills once exposed to them- such concepts as 'positionality' or 'cultural relativity' or the scientific method, these kinds of skills may be unfamiliar to them and yet they do latch right on to them once exposed.
Also, they have strengths that correspond to their weaknesses. To say they are 'computer savvy' is actually to allude to complex sets of skills that would floor students of a generation ago. For example, I have yet to meet a student who could not type at what to me seems blinding speed, and that morphs into being able to input a wide array of complex symbology almost effortlessly. I have seen 'average' community college students able to manipulate complex video-editing equipment skillfully after a 10 minute tutorial.
I agree there is a dire situation staring us in the face and they are going to be overwhelmed by the scope and scale of the problems , but when they fail it will be the result of my generations criminal selfishness and not because their generation is brain damaged.
I teach biological/ecological/environmental science (and an occasional critical thinking class) at the undergraduate college level.
I do not share your rosy evaluation. Critical thinking skills are sorely lacking, to a mind-boggling degree.
"Brain damaged" is a loaded and not so useful term. I don't know what to ascribe the slackness of the students I see. I'm not placing blame. Likely it is a package of environmental and cultural impacts.
But it is scary to behold, and really hard to deny.
Not actually teaching, or having some sort of objective comparison to the past it is hard for me to judge if it is really getting worse. But, we as a society, I think are at increasing danger from a lack of the teaching of critical thinking skills. It seems to me that reversion to ideology, and simple gut feelings is becoming much more common than it used to be. And this at a time where the society we live in is becoming more complex. Couple that with a democracy that has to cater to the most common (thinking style) classes, and we are creating an idiocracy.
I think our problem stems from an enlightenment assumption, that humans are naturally rational thinkers. This is just plain wrong. At best we have powerful emotional brains, with a thin layer of rationality. Unless a person is taught how to avoid the many pitfalls, and places great priority on constant evaluation of his thinking, he is going to be dominated by irrational thinking. This stuff needs to be taught, no later than junior high. Doing it in college, means too great a proportion of the population is never exposed to critical thinking.
I'm just an amateur in this field. I wonder if the people aren't the same but it's the world that has changed. Before the sixties knowledge existed on paper or on film strips. Somewhere mid-century we got television then computers and the internet. People now have to deal with a firehose blasting information at them all day. Perhaps the way kids have turned out is the human way of dealing with the ever shifting information presented all day long. It used to be that countries existed on a map on the wall and they stayed constant all year long. Now you get zooming, spinning, morphing 3D maps and six months from now when technology changes it will all be different.
I think there is a need to differentiate information from entertainment. A large part of the firehose's output is sheer entertainment. The graphics and frequent changes of screen often do little more than obscure the facts. Furthermore - we are exposed to this "infotainment"(many thanks to Kunstler for the term) in a passive state - the term couch potato did not evolve in a vacuum. The passivity of our interface with this sort of information stream discourages the development of critical thinking. Which is its whole purpose - no advertiser wants a critically thinking audience.
And actually, the interface between technology and humanity has changed very little recently. Most are driven by a pop-up-window-menu format. Once this is conceptually modelled by the user - it is possible to move between tools and rapidly gain a modicum of expertise.
Think about it - the same type of interface which allows you to change the settings on your TV is also used to navigate this blogpage. Learn it once and you can transfer that knowledge to many different applications. The type of interface I use at triage is the same as the one I use playing a MMOG.
So I guess I don't think that the ability to use many programme-type tools is indicative of an ability with critical thinking - one can use a hammer to bang many different things. Nor do I believe that exposure to vast amounts of videostreaming implies an exposure to information requiring processing - mostly those producers want you to sit back and agree with their point of view.
Al
I agree, and as a college teacher of 25 years would add that I've seen geographic skills *improve* over this period. I have taught about once every one of these years some version of a regional geography/human ecology course. While the assignment has morphed a bit, on the first day of the course I've asked students to draw a map of the world, freehand, showing continents and locating about 4-6 places of current interest (Kuwait during Gulf War I, Bosnia during the Kosovo event, etc.). While the maps are still not very good, overall there has been steady, marked improvement.
I do still favor, though, a constitutional amendment prohibiting the US from attacking a country unless at least half of the citizenry can locate it on a map.
While I don't lightly suggest amending the constitution, I whole-heartedly support your proposed amendment!
It's been reasonably clear in computer enthusiast circles for five years or so that clockspeeds couldn't progress much further in general-purpose x86 CPUs. Overclockers hit 6ghz on liquid nitrogen in 2004 on the Pentium 4. They hit it again in 2008 on the Skulltrail 2x4-core platform. I expect they'll celebrate hitting it again on the 8 core Beckton processors that are in Intel's roadmap.
The general solution to the speed wall has been to widen the pipe - more cores, more bus & memory bandwidth between them, better optimization, more instructions per cycle, more cache... the list goes on. In 10 years or so we'll likely be evaluating processors based on physical designs, instruction sets, and code that look fundamentally different from they've looked for the last 22 years. Shrinking, adding to, and speeding up the same x86-32 design simply isn't good enough anymore, because while we may keep increasing transistor density, we havn't been able to increase processor speed in a long time, and many code routines aren't multi-threadable. If we could have done so economically, it would have been infinitely preferable simply to double the speeds of microprocessors several years ago instead of adding a second core - which didn't benefit most apps.