The memory wall has ben with us for many years, although it is getting worse. It is not that bandwidth (the ability to move data around), isn't also improving, its just that we are improving bandwidth at a slower rate than we are improving the capability to manipulate the data once it is inside the processing chip. I think one of the problems stems from the propensity of theoretical computer science to think of complexity in terms of logical (or floating point) operations to accomplish a task. But, as you have noted, in the real world, it is usually about the ability to move the data around, and algorithmic choices to enable more to be done with less data motion, are harder to quantify, and computer memory is getting very messy, with various types and levels of caches, memory buses, and memory chips, and disk atorage. It just doesn't lend itself to easy analysis anymore.

I think Moores law (which was always about the number of components (transistors) on a chip, not speed) will run for about your decade. Beyond that, barring some major technical advances, I think it begins to dramatically slow the rate of increase. That will present a major paradigm shift for the whole business model. Currently (I work in engineering software) customers are advancing towards exponentially more difficult computations, at some point the ability to make progress this way (at least by application of brute force), will be over, and further progress will become very hard. I suspect we will see this transition in ten to twenty years from now. Clearly the business model, of buying new hardware and software every couple of years because the old stuff is obsolete will have to change. Sortof the computaional equivalent of the end of growth.

IMHO I think Kurzweil is a fruitcake.

It will come to be seen that "human deep thought" is not really all that deep, and the current hardware (say, that 3.3 gigahertz chip with 4 gig of RAM of our humble 32-bit PCs) is more than up to the task.
What's lacking is a proper understanding of elemental human thought processes. When such is attained, coding will be one foot after the other, and the coders will be astonished at how few steps have to be taken.
For now, researchers like Lenat are on the wrong track.