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411 comments on Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage
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411 comments on Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage
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GAIA Host Collective
I think panic food buying will exceed panic gas buying.
Recently I have reconnected with an estranged relative who works in food service.
Only after speaking with him about his work am I able to appreciate how far flung our food distribution network has become and how much demand it places on our fuel stocks.
Food shortages will follow unbelievably quickly upon the heels of any disruption to liquid fuel availability.
Based on recent UK experience it takes about 3 days before food stocks on hand are depleted.
The impact of this will be interesting. Instead of entering a "visual cornucopia" with the implied promise of everything available in any desired quantity, the food shopper will experience bare shelves and picking over other people's leavings.
My hunch is that this will have a very significant negative impact on citizen psychology. Not sure how this will play out in the elections. Cannot wait to hear what the presumptive US "Energy Czarina" has to say.
What recent UK experience?
I haven't noticed any food shortages.
You did have a transport strike in the past year or two.
The reporting on this side of the pond indicated that there were shortages of most goods within three days. It was posted on the DB at the time and there were a number of comments in regard to how the urban public was lacking knowledge of JIT inventory and of their exposure to stock problems with any impairment of transport.
"shortages of most goods"? I don't think so. The problem is nowadays one or two people find a shortage then it gets picked up by bloggers and the media who make it seem like the end of the world. In fact it was just shortage of a few goods, experienced by a handful of people.
I tried to explain at the time to guru carolyn baker that reports of food shortages were severely exaggerated, but the testimony of one who actually lives in the uk's second city just along the road from plenty of supermarkets didn't qualify for her as evidence that the media reports of some national shortage situation constituted hype.
In my experience there are regularly shortages anyway of the things I want to buy because the store has the "clever" idea of selling them half-price regardless of the fact that a regular customer such as myself would be happy just to get my regular this and that for any price.
My memory of the event was of no shortages in my area, but that the government gave in to the protestors when they were informed that widespread shortages were one day away, after seven days of disruption. There were reports of some fresh foods being hard to find, but certainly no-one went hungry.
Although I don't have the numbers before me, my state(MI) alone rivals the land mass of your fair isle.
http://www.world-map.nl/maps/political-world-map-2007.gif (big file)
Hell, even our cities are huge, the Detroit metro area is sprawled over 3 counties, it takes a solid hour, with favorable traffic, to cross it in any one direction.
That is why when I responded negatively to the poster a few days ago who was commenting that the Chevy Volts' 40 mile range was overkill compared to Toyotas plan for 8 mile ranged vehicles, a 40 mile range aint squat.
Add to this the almost total lack of any public transportation means that even should fuel allocation preference, in a disruption scenario, be given to food distribution, folks are still going to have a time getting to food.
An even better bet would be that there is NO plan held by the government for such an event.
The 40 mile all-electric range of the Volt would be very nice to have.
The question is though whether it will be affordable, as the financial environment looks......interesting.....
Drive or Starve Americans
Those that, even if given food stamps, cannot put food on the table without driving. Much less get to work.
What GM hath wrought,
Alan
I hadn't realised some of the pressures within the American planning system which favour extensivity in building:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/95447-housing-bigger-isn-t-always-better...
Let's hope some of these pressures reverse soon - after all, if you need public transport to get to work, it is a lot easier if you live in a relatively dense neighbourhood, so perhaps people will be more welcoming.
Cannot wait to hear what the presumptive US "Energy Czarina" has to say.
That's easy:
"God will provide."
"God will provide."
i propose the former and unqualified chairperson of the alaska oil and gas commission would say:
"god will provide, provided that man(or woman) will drill, drill, drill, screw the moose, caribou and polar bear they are not likely to vote for me, me, me and we all know it is all about me, me, me"