Any idiot can see the war in Iraq is about the oil.

I'll be the idiot then and claim it was over water.
(Why build 100 year bases for a 30 year product?)

Or lining the pockets of the military connected industries.

http://www.democracynow.org/2007/2/27/chalmers_johnson_nemesis_the_last_...

I tend to agree. The problem with the "it's about oil" argument is that it assumes a rational decision making process. Iraq has oil, USA needs it. Case closed? But - why was this logical train followed by such a disastrous and poorly executed decision to invade? Saddam was quite happy to sell oil, he wanted to sell more. The logical approach for the USA was to turn a blind eye to Saddam's human rights abuses and buy his oil, no questions asked (like they do with countless other favored dictators).

Instead, I think that the flawed invasion and occupation actually reveals an irrational decision making process. The story that Iraqis would greet the US with flowers as liberators, and immediately set up a friendly democratic state, points in a different direction. It points to the Iraqi exiles who shmoozed the Neocons and persuaded them Iraq was the ideal target for the PNAC project of domino democracy. This plan could also be sold on the basis of securing ME oil supplies, although the net effect has been to destabilise the region. And of course the industrial-military complex would be on board.

I think anyone who says "it's only about oil" is an idiot. Likewise anyone who thinks Afghanistan is about opium. Presumably, the Germans invaded France because of their desire to control the supply of Champagne and Camembert.

WRONG.

The problem was Saddam. The big Oil majors want to be the ones selling the oil and making the money as things everywhere else peak and go into decline. It's EXACTLY what Jay Hanson said would happen back in 1997 or so. That once we got close to the peak the U.S. would invade Iraq so that the friends of George Bush would be making the money not the friends of Saddam Hussein.

As far as Germnay's invasion of France being about wine: I don't know anything about this particular war but I bet 99/100 chance it was about either some type of lucrative resource and/or some type of lucrative trade route.

As far as Afghanistan and opium: you probably think it's just a coinkydink that the Taliban were able to almost completely eliminate it but that the U.S. using the best tech and best people somehow just "screwed up" and bada-bing bada-bang, the opium production goes through the ceiling? If you think it's about anything other than opium then I've got some Florida real estate to sell to you as it seems you'll buy pretty much anything.

Hmm...apparently you haven't noticed that Afghanistan is on the other border of Iran to Iraq.
Very handy is you did want to control a bit more oil as well as drugs.

The idea of single causation for any one historical event is a recognised fallacy, as a number of different influences may affect different members of the elite, and even chance events can have their input.

Even the siege of Troy can be seen either as for the love of Helen, or a socio-economic conflict to control the entrance to the Bosporus and important trade routes, and so on.

Exactly.. The reasoning is likely more complicated. The opium trade is a valuable asset to control, but so also is the distribution of the crude from the caspian basin. The control of the flow of oil is highly valuable politically and economically. After all, Afghanistan is right between Iran and other oil producing states, and China and Pakistan. After invading Afghanistan, there are milatary bases literally surrounding most of the main oil producing regions. The conflict in Georgia is most likely the Russian response to control the flow of oil from pipelines into Turkey. Its no surprise that we've been seeing anti-russian sentiment in the media!

And also not forgetting that possession is nine tenths of the law. Once you have possession you can make the law. Once you make the laws you have the potential to do pretty much as you like. Democracy anyone?

L,
Sid.

A confused and very weak argument, bob. You claim to show that "Iraq was not about the oil" by stating that it was "shmoozed ... Neocons {who were} persuaded ... Iraq was the ideal target for the PNAC project of domino democracy." but offer no proof that any significant neo-con decisionmaker cares one iota for democracy. The schmoozed neocons caused the disastrously comically under-manned under-planned post-war occupation, but not the incentive for the occupation in the first place, which I'm on record for having called as "the oil" a month before the start of the stupid event. It was clearly obvious then, and still is.

You may want to read up some more on PNAC, it wasn't 'Democracy' that they wanted to give the world. It was the US as the supreme military superpower and a stable middle east. According to them this could be accomplished by establishing permanent 'military presence' (100 year bases) in the middle east and the removal of the Iraq leadership, whether or not Saddam was the target.

I'm not saying it wasn't about oil, as a matter of fact I believe MOSTLY it was. But stability in the middle east could have been wanted for a lot of reasons. Ollie North warned us about Bin Laden long before 9/11/2001.

I used to assign things to 'conspiracy' a lot. I believe now that our leadership honestly believes that since they were elected/chosen/whatever to do the job and they are richer/smarter/more godlike than the peasant masses, that they will make decisions and no matter what follow them through because of course they are the right decisions. Iraq fits this description perfectly.

As for Opium in Afghanistan, when the Taliban was in charge the opium trade was all but destroyed there. Now the US is using local 'leaders' to help them fight the war on terror, much their money comes from the opium trade. Of course so does the Taliban's. I've been wondering if the troop increases there are due to actually trying to get the drug problem under control more than a need for more firepower.

As its obvious I am from Pakistan, close to afghanistan and there was taliban's newspaper published here and many people went to afghanistan from here to see how they govern between 1996 and 2001. All of those people reported that taliban had destroyed all the opium farms. Its an indisputed, well known fact that taliban destroyed all the opium farms, nobody ever doubted about it before you. Though taliban needed a lot of money to build war-torn economy of afghanistan and to buy weapons to secure borders they not used any money from opium.

If talibans were using opium money then they would have tons of money but they lived very poor lives (for eg ministers went to work on bicycles etc). Also if talibans were already using opium then how can its production be increased, it would only be sustained in that case. Remember that taliban had captured 95% of afghanistan by 1996 and for the next 5 years ruled a quiet peaceful country and all the war with northern alliance was at the northern border in only 5% of land occupied by northern alliance. Given that peace and 5 years of rule they would have cultivating and trading lot more opium than americans are able to do now in a war zone. So, the very fact that after american invasion opium production increased many folds proves that taliban were not using opium.