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218 comments on DrumBeat: September 19, 2008
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218 comments on DrumBeat: September 19, 2008
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When I first met PO, the date was set at 2005. Now it is 2010. Rembrandt says it will be 2012-2015, so yes, it will take longer to happen then initially anticipated. (though what is 7 years?)
And Katrina hit NO as a Cat 4, not a Cat 5 huricane. Another time maybe?
Katrina hit as a Cat. 3, but she was a Cat. 5 earlier, and brought a Cat. 5 storm surge.
Right. Thanks for the correction.
Global oil production crossed the 84 mbpd line in 2004. In the 4 years since then global population has grown by over 300 million yet global oil production has grown by a measly 1.5 mbpd or so.
So putting that as a percentage, global oil production has grown 1.7% despite prices quadrupling while population grew by over 4.5%
This is definitely Robert Rapier's "peak lite" scenario and it looks like it is happening just as we are reaching the crest of global production anyway. And on a 200-250 year total production curve, what's a year or three difference in picking the exact peak date mean anyway? Mere semantics.
plus the net is far less. even if measured in dollars. we are at marginal cost of oil and gas (in north america) now. so we will continue to pull out the cheap stuff found long ago. peak date a)is not the relevant question and b)due to banking/finance crisis is cemented in - rembrandt will have to adjust his numbers later this year..
It looks to me like the jury is still out on the exact "Peak Date" with 2005 still being in the running.
Barring truly unexpected growth in production we appear to be solidly into a 3+ year peak plateau where the exact peak production date will probably never be known any closer than +/- 1 year in any event.
The peak of true significance is peak net energy. It doesn't matter if you increase production, if net energy declines mean that less energy is available to run the global economy. Deepwater oil, tar sands, heavy oil, and most enhanced recover techniques like water injection all require extra energy to get the same volume of oil.
We've been on a gross production plateau since 2005, but net energy has been going down since then, or maybe a little before. IMO, using basing one's understanding on gross oil production is the most common mistake in oil analysis.
"The peak of true significance is peak net energy."
I heartily second that, and would only add, as GreyZone discusses above, that growing population means that peak net per capita is already behind us.
Quibbling over the exact point of peak oil just confuses the issue. The point is, unless there is a sudden upsurge in oil production in the next couple of years, we are at peak oil right now and have been at that point for a little over three years. What no one expected was this plateau. It could go on for two or three more years but it is still the peak oil plateau and it is happening right now!
Non-OPEC production has been on a plateau for five years. However 2008 will be the year of lowest non-OPEC production since 2003. It appears that non-OPEC production is sliding off its five year plateau. World production however may have a while to run on its plateau but it will now be much harder to stay there since non-OPEC production is trending downward.
But don't fret about the exact month of maximum peak production because it simply does not matter, it simply clouds the matter and detracts from the fact that we are on the peak plateau right now.
Ron Patterson
I agree with Ron that we are on the plateau right now and that trying to time it precisely is not very productive. And a global recession/depression could even further cloud the issue by
The most obvious signal for most folks that peak oil is happening would be the price of gasoline. That seems like an external phenomenon. If the price goes down in a depression but folks can't afford it because they lost their job, well, that seems like a personal problem. Hyperinflation, on the other hand, would seem like a problem with the treasury but not necessarily with energy supplies.
It's difficult for folks to see the relationship between peak oil, banking and the economy especially when the MSM is telling them Peak Oil is 'just a theory'.
It's my personal belief that showing folks data graphics with production curves for various nations and fields is the best way to convince thinking people that we have a problem right now. I'm not sure how to convince the masses, however.
Happy Exploring!
-- Jon