The Oil Drum | Day 2 in Sacramento at the ASPO-USA meeting and The Hunt for Black Gold Open Thread

42 comments on Day 2 in Sacramento at the ASPO-USA meeting and The Hunt for Black Gold Open Thread

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mdsolar on September 25, 2008 - 11:26am

China will likely take over as leader in producing solar panels this year. But, the bulk of the market remains silicon and thus is not dependent on rare earth minerals. The thin film sector (which can use rare earths) is growing faster than the silcon sector and that growth is centered in the US. The relative growth rates may become more equal as silicon supply shifts into gear for solar being a larger market than computer chips. The rare earth issue is pretty much a canard for the overall industry.

Chris

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tonyw on September 26, 2008 - 3:45am

Chris, when you say "The rare earth issue is pretty much a canard for the overall industry" do you mean that rare-earth based products will not be able to be scaled up due to their scarcity? I have read that China has already tied up over 90% of rare-earth minerals.

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mdsolar on September 26, 2008 - 8:06pm

I mean that there are methods that do not rely on anything scarce that will come down in price to be well cheaper than coal. If, in the absence of scarcity, the thin film methods that do rely on the scarce elements would be even cheaper, it does not matter much. I would guess that China is using a lot of rare earths because they manufacture a lot of electronics. Indium in not technically a rare earth but it could prove to be a constrain on CIS and CIGS thin film solar cells: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell#Copper-Indium_Selenide

Chris

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42 comments on Day 2 in Sacramento at the ASPO-USA meeting and The Hunt for Black Gold Open Thread

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