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206 comments on DrumBeat: September 24, 2008
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206 comments on DrumBeat: September 24, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
The Day The Earth (Almost) Stood Still
Walking home after work last evening, there was almost NO traffic moving on the street. The street that I walk beside is one of the main streets in town, but is not super busy; it is rare for more than thirty seconds to go by without a car passing me going one way or the other. Last evening, I would go two, three, even four minutes without seeing a car on the street. It was a really strange feeling walking along that empty street, as if I had been transported forward in the future to a time when gasoline no longer existed.
It felt so strange that I asked several people in their yards along the way if I was just imagining it, or if traffic really was down that much. They all agreed with me that it was.
The few cars that passed me were all traveling slower, too. Usually they zoom past at five or ten miles per hour over the speed limit, but not last night. They were all obviously taking it slower and trying to conserve gas. For the past couple of days now I’ve been noticing more cars carrying more people than just the driver.
Where were the cars? Probably a fair number of them were still in line at a gas station, waiting for fuel and hoping that they would get some. I talked to someone I knew as I passed by on my walk to work this morning, and they told me that they had to sit in line for five hours yesterday waiting to get gas. For those not trying to get gas, I would venture to guess that they just stayed home. The local restaurants and fast food places must be starting to hurt for business.
We have often speculated here on what would happen when the gasoline supply curtailments actually hit. It has been fascinating to have a ringside seat to observe it happening on a small scale here in Western NC.
Good job, Observer. Keep it up!
They're all here, in my town. Gah. The Monster Truck Rally continues.
(excellent post, btw)
That sounds nice. I wish we'd have a gas shortage here. Then maybe I'd be able to ride my bike without fear of being killed or having things thrown at me.
I live in WNC also and have noticed both calmer and more frantic traffic. Just depends where the needle points on their gas gauge.
There has only been gas shipped to our station across the street 2 times in 15 days, a normally very busy gas-up. It has made the intersection a traffic jam as I walk to the grocery store attached. The local Asheville news had a piece about all the automotive stores being out of gas cans and siphons. People are siphoning gas from lawn mowers and less efficient vehicles to get to work. The one Hess gas station that seems to be getting shipments daily is supposedly going all the way to Willmington NC to get it, a 5 hour trip each way. Once a shipment shows up, it is cleaned out in about 2 hours.
Me, I am an unemployed civil engineer, I have no where I need to go with my little car with a full tank of gas. I can walk or ride my bike most places. My wife and I were planning a little near-cation to some things in North Carolina. Now even a short trip to nearby state or national park for hiking seems futile. I am surprised things are going as well as they are, no major fights or police actions yet.
There is an article about people starting to car-pool and such for work and of course are still running out of gas. The newspaper has made attempts to tell the public which stations have gas. By the time it is posted, and people figure it out, the station runs out, or their car runs out waiting.
http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080924/NEWS01/...
Received news a couple of hours ago that the Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College (aka AB-Tech) is shutting campus as of 9/24 @ 4:30 PM to remain closed through the weekend because of the gas shortage.
The Sam's Club got a shipment of gas earlier this morning and at least two people left work to join the line. There was apparently no rationing and one report of a dually pickup filling the tank full, then proceeding to fill two 6-gallon cans before driving off - $3.79/gal. Gasoline is on everyone's mind...you can't go 10 minutes without someone saying something about it.
One rider of the Asheville transit system (bus system) has reported an increase to a 10 minute delay due to increased ridership. I've seen more people walking in places I don't normally see them walking, a few more bikes, and a general sense of less traffic - though traffic on the interstate still doesn't understand the concept of not going 70+mph.
Lots of closures and cancelations being announced. It is sounding like they might not be able to continue to run the school buses past next week.
There was a press conference this afternoon, this has finally gotten the attention of local government officials. They are both promising that gas is on the way, and also saying that it would be at least another week until things start to get back to normal -- that's a mixed message if I ever heard one! The truth of the matter is that there is very little that they can do.
I think that the big lesson to come out of this episode is that Just-in-Time materials management is dead, and that the value of inventories has been proven. Inventories buffer systems from unexpected disruptions; eliminate the inventories and you eliminate the buffering, which means that any disruption becomes a very big crisis. It would have helped a lot if local governments and major employers kept larger (or ANY) stocks of motor fuel on hand, and if suppliers had maintained more and larger tank farms aroound the country. Yes, there is a cost to maintaining these larger inventories, but we are now learning that there can be some very big costs to not maintaining them.
This gets back to that optimism article that I posted below. JIT looks great on paper - IF everything works perfectly, all the time. In the real world, things don't work like that; in the real world, things go wrong. Assuming that nothing ever goes wrong is the management philosophy of an idiot.
With the pushback against "price-gouging" (AKA free-market pricing), there is very little incentive for end-retailers to keep extra inventory on hand. When the system is functional, the JIT folks benefit, but when TSHTF, retailers who keep excess inventory are effectively prevented from seeing any kind of profit for their foresight.
Wise planning just means selling out of everything at the same everyday low prices a couple hours later than the competition.
I forget where I first read this, but full credit to the author of:
JIT--> Just Isn't There
Sadly, I haven't been able to convince any local motorcycle/scooter dealers to jumpstart my Hell's Angels' gas-station idea.
To help foster Peak Outreach: it would be cool if someone would hand out Peak-books [Simmons, Deffeyes, Heinberg, et al], or TOD & EB printouts, to those waiting in the long gasoline queues. Then, when they finally reach the gas-pump: collect the materials, then give them a quick, but simple quiz. If they pass--> small discount on the gas.
I bet they will drive their now refueled cars straight to the library or bookstore, or immediately home to log onto TOD, EB, LATOC, DIEOFF, etc.
A whacky and freakishly good idea. (looks at author's name) Oh yeah, it's gotta be Bob!
My saga went like this:
Last Sunday before last(14th) we lost power at about 9:30 AM..By we I mean most of western Ky. At least 4 counties were shutdown. The remains of Ike came up the Mississippi valley and totalled a huge number of trees. Not mch rain but the power never came back on for my immediate area for 4 very long days. Many lost all their frozen and refrigerated foodstuffs. We lived in the dark for all those days.
I worked on several large generators in order to help many neighbors and just barely managed to save most of my freezer contents.
Then this last Saturday I had to go with my son to Raleigh, NC..hitch up a 6x12 uhaul trailer and load many of his and my wifes belongings and haul them back to Ky.
Little did we know about the run on gas and the crisis in the southern states.
It was like a trip thru apocalypse. Weird and scary.Reminded me of 1973 somewhat only more personal.
As we pulled out of Raleigh at midday on Sunday we had a full tank. We soon found out what chaos was all about. No gas in Asheville. Finally found one station with very slow pumps and huge lines. Managed to finally get topped off. They were soon out. Took one guy over an hour to get 15 gals.
Then on the road but wiser. We made it to Knoxville. Passing stranded autos as we went along the highway. No gas in Knoxville.Driving on and now almost on fumes we found one station in the boonies with enough to get us a start towards Nashville. Guess what?
Nashville was closed down far as gas went. We managed to get up to Clarksville , Tn just about the time we were running out.
My son was aghast and now he realized that what I had been saying all these months and even years was finally coming true.
The financial situation hit him right in the head. He has a masters in Accountancy and is a CPA and also works in DC. He was shocked..shell shocked.
I knew it was just the past catching up with us. I said "we drive far as we can..then we stop while we still have a reserve for in the morning when someone fills a stations tanks."
I was just hoping that we didn't lose it along the way.
The CB was strangely silent. At 5 AM Monday morning we pulled into the farm.
The huge trees were still being chainsawed up. A neighbors brand new pole barn was a total loss. Others escaped damage but they will now look differently at our coming situation. There is a huge amount of anger out here. You see all our lineman and cherry pickers were sent south to Texas. No one apparently was capable of following a storm track and judging the obvious!!!!
Gas is now available but the previous weeks there was fights and altercations in the two small towns in my county. Something I thought would not happen but it did and it will again and again.
Airdale-nothing can stop what will be.....
What can be said then about the utter folly of those we trusted to govern us...and what has been done to the gifts of God of the Heavens and this once good green Earth?
airdale, good to have you back safe and sound. Cheers!
Slightly off topic, but related to societal changes...
I run a gardening maintenance business. I decided to test whether people were really making big changes in preparation for rising food costs. So I put an ad in the local paper, part of which offered to do vegetable gardens. There are no other ads running which offer vege gardens from the 30 ads, so I thought I stood a good chance of generating some good business. Response from the ad was incredible, however, only 1 person requested I do a vege garden.
Where I live is the very wealthy Northern beaches of Sydney. Property values are so high that most people are really only concerned with maintaining the value of their homes I concluded.
On a side note, a customer of mine is a professor of geology, so I asked him what his take on peak oil is. Interesting conversation followed and he said almost certainly it is real. Not that I needed to ask of course. I told him to have a look at this website.