The option of surviving is not available to us as we are mortals, and mortals eventually die.

The length of our life is always uncertain. The fact that we will die is certain. Peak Oil and collapse only means that the likelihood of the length being less years and the conditions before death less pleasant. More than anything else we should cease the endless push to get ahead and live in the moments one by one. Act well to those who are close to us. I know that all sounds pretty trite, but I learned as a teen volunteering in nursing homes that there are worse things than death. If we just try to maximize years we may well miss the kind of things that make living something worth doing.

Steering large-scale events as well as possible into less-dire classes of outcomes, using whatever works.

The exact future of humans and the earth is inherently unknowable, but there are absolute things which can be known: extant biological options may be kept open for evolution's future or be foreclosed. To the best of our knowledge, the planet could be a great place to live for the next half-billion years if we don't muck it up. Thus, what's at stake may be real human lifetimes numbered the trillions, dwarfing the hundred-billion or so to have existed since our species evolved. Those trillions are in immediate existential danger now; and we're only one of thousands of species affected. What happens in this century will have huge consequences for the future of life, and I reckon that steering through this bottleneck with an intact planet will be our species' all-time greatest challenge. And again, I think we need to use whatever works to steer human perceptions and not let our capuchin-monkey predilections for egalitarianism and political correctness get too much in the way.

The way toward the future is to abandon the machines.

It's been long enough, the failed machine experiment, perhaps we should run it until the entire planet is destroyed. It must all go; the machine narrative, the machine heroes, the machine politics (in all senses), the machine wars, the clockwork economies, the machine rationalizations, the machine seductions, the machine false promises, the machine demands, the triumph of machines over all, the machine 'riches', the machine lies, the trivial and wanton destruction for its own sake ... the ultimate human - machine rape/suicide pact. In the finite here and now, the choice that is offered by the machine is to drive or have a job. Guess what most are choosing?

Via taxation reduce all fossil fuel use at a linear rate to one-third the present level by 2020. Adaptation to a new environment is possible given time and necessity to adapt. Such a reduction will result in unimaginable hardship for the vast majority and the early death for many. However, without application of radical forced change, we will continue with BAU resulting in mass die-off.

Revenue derived from fossil fuel taxation should be strictly allocated to projects such as: 1) Energy efficiency, 2) Non fossil fuel energy generation such as hydro, nuclear, thermal solar, etc., 3) Improved rail and water transportation systems, and 4) Energy research. Domestic fossil fuel energy enterprises should be nationalized and export of domestic production eliminated unless some export is required to maintain long-term production capability.

Cascading feedback loops resulting from these actions will force adaptation in all dimensions of political/governance, economic, and social life. Forced reduction of fossil fuel use is the only lever to effect the necessary changes in the time we have remaining.

As we work through the resulting problems, attention to social unity must be at the very top. We are hard wired to be family/tribe focused. A week of comments on TOD demonstrates how issues such as politics, religion, race, education level, etc., lead to alienation and inhibit social cohesion. I must come to a realization that my enemy is BAU, not the Asian, democrat, atheist, university professor. He needs me and I need him. If we don’t force ourselves to unify there is far less hope for any of us.

It's time to deify the Eternal City of Humanity.

What is it?

Or rather Who ... for She is Civitas, the Human Community , who will be and be for centuries and millenia hence. She, in addition to all that She will be then, will encompass us as we are now. And She must be worshipped and served for She is greater than we, and is far far greater than the sum of us and all before us. Greater in the mysteries of Life and Non-Life. Greater in the science of Void and of Matter. Greater in thought, deed, and emotion. Greater in every way!

Thus in the service of Civitas we must constrain our buying and selling for She demands tribute and refuses to be impovished by heedlessness, waste, ruin and plunder of all that will sustain Her ever more. For She is a jealous God! Though all have value, be ye mindful that all value has value only relative to Her.

Make way for the Divine Queen!

[Maybe add free immodium for tea partiers? ed.]

Goal: Slow or eliminate population growth by methods other than a rising death rate.
--Accomplish what little can be done by proselytizing for birth control methods from abstinence to abortion. Problems resulting from differential birth rates mandate that this be accomplished throughout the world.

http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competitive_exclusion_principle

The stone age was the only way humans have or ever will inhabit this planet sustainably and for better or worse our ancestors practiced it successfully for millions of years.

The expoitation of fossil fuels and other mineral resources has allowed our species to overshoot the carrying capacity of this planet many fold. If we wish to persist as a viable species we must begin the process of training people on primitive living skills and protect all remaining wild lands and habitat. A political revolution would be necessary to shift away from the suicidal growth economy to a more benign socialistic model that allocates essential resources while reducing resouce consumption on the order of 90%. See www.warsocialism.com. Obviously births would need to be rationed as well.

Learn to live with less and enjoy it more.

For the past half century we have been on a consumption treadmill baited by the promise of happiness. We have come to accept the false promise that if we acquire/use more in the way of material wealth we will achieve satisfaction, status and security. Somehow, however, the carrot always seems just out of reach no matter how fast we run or how much we spend. The carrot is in fact an illusion. Happiness is not a thing or a place, it is a process. "Finding happiness" implies that it is either lost or hidden. It is neither. It is all around us. It does not take material wealth to be happy. Indeed, obsession with conventional wealth and excessive possessions often obscure the obvious; happiness is free. All you really have to do is stop chasing it and simply accept it. A good friend once gave my wife and I a blessing that I share with you; may you always have enough. That is really all you need.

Become one with nature.

Always back a winner! Is there any doubt Gaia will be the winner? The odds are about four billion to four score in Gaia‘s favor. When you understand the reflection of the moon is not moon you are well on your way. And ’chair’ is not the thing you are sitting on. The past is but a memory and the future does not exist so the only reality for each of us is ‘here’ and ‘now’. With that completely in focus, it is really simple but I don’t need to tell you that, you are already one with nature and you would understand that if you ever wake up. IMHO Gaia doesn’t care so why should I? As Greer would say, in three hundred years it will be different than now.

Goal: Promote better relations after currency change (and debt unwinds).

Approach: Churches start teaching what "Forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors," really means.

Reasoning: If people, businesses, and governments are to live peacefully after losing what most feel is rightfully theirs, there needs to be some way of calming bad feelings, without the losers in the debt unwinds attempting retribution or war to take back assets corresponding to those lost.

"A bit of advice given to a young Native American at the time of his initiation: "As you go the way of life, you will see a great chasm. Jump. It is not as wide as you think." Campbell

"There is no place in this new kind of physics both for the field and matter, for the field is the only reality." Einstein. When we create duality in our thought and lives we have created opposition. To separate ourselves from the whole is to cut our options and erect the walls of our own prison. The goal is to evolve to that place where the energy that had been projected outward to correct the world is turned around to correct oneself---to get on our own track and to dance, in balance, between the worlds " An old Apache storyteller reminds us, "the plants,rocks, fire, water, all are alive. They watch us and see our needs. They see when we have nothing to protect us, and it is then that they reveal themselves and speak to us." Campbell

I cannot accept that it was all for naught, that invention evolved.

But evolution sometimes works in fits and starts. Sometimes cataclysmic dyings cleanse the old to make room for the new. Though I have developed strong reasons to believe that the current species of Homo, our species, the one we arrogantly call sapiens, is now about to become part of that episodic cleansing, I also have reason to hope that the genus will manage to survive, in a new form. There is no way to know or predict what the selective forces of a new world, one resulting in large measure from our own follies, will produce from this raw material. But I can also hope that the spark of cleverness, the ability to invent, guided more strongly by true sapience will persist and learn to invent in much wiser ways.

Question Everything
George

Goal (given the constraints you laid out Nate): Keep the current system going as long as possible.

Plan: Natural gas rig count is 50% of what it was a year ago and production is flat! Yes debt is a real problem but the amount of natty we have will get us out of this economic slump and propel us into a new boom phase for the coming 15-20 years. We need to open all stops on drilling for NG and create legislation to transform vehicular transportation using NG. Stop the government Monty Hall campaign and get people off the dole and back to work. Growing and using our resources is the best way to alleviate poverty and some of these other social woes. For those that worry about environmental impact, get the prices right and hard working people like me will respond. Sorry, but focusing on coming 10-20 years is all we can do and all we will do.

Continue teaching that how the world occurs to us in our power as expressed in language.

The most powerful way to create collaboration — and it is only through collaboration that anything significant will be achieved — that I've seen is to have people recognize that the meaning they bring to their perception of the world is entirely made up in language and is in their power. The world has no inherent meaning. It means nothing until there is a human there to assign meaning. The pain, the struggle, the suffering (as well as the joy and fulfillment) are a function of the words we use. We are trapped by words and don't know it. "They" are not evil. "They" are not righteous. "They" are, actually, a bunch of molecules moving — and that's it.

Language is the house of the truth of Being.
Martin Heidegger

Alter the words and the being follows. We call ourselves human beings but we are, so far, not very good at managing our being because we haven't all learned that the access to being (for humans) is language.

I like the images.

One goal would be (re-) build the local community relationships (social, economic, political) while acknowledging (paying debts, forgiveness where possible, adjusting lifestyles,) current constraints and conditions to start a conversation with "Where do we go from here?".

I don't think it is possible to create a solution. There is no magic bullet or ten that Moses or his modern day equivalent shall descend with and announce to the masses. Rather (with luck), there will be hundreds, thousands, millions of individual solutions, 1/2 solutions, partial solutions that will get us a little further down the path without just kicking the can (of problems) down the road for someone else to solve. Once most people acknowledge the extent of the predicaments we are facing, and after we all change our underwear, then we can begin to work our way through them. What works for me in my town may not work for you in you town, there are all these idiosynchric histories that come in to play and must be dealt with by the people involved. When a group of people wherever, are all in agreement that we are all in this together, then ways will be found. If that does not occur, (and scale up eventually) to regions and larger political units and economic units, then it ain't gonna happen and the doomers will be able to say I told you so as they extinguish the last light of this go round.

How do you climb a mountain? Start walking, one step at time.
For me, if we can rebuild a sense of Gemeinschaft, that is the first hard challenge we must succeed at.
This won't help but I am not going to try and resist, but if we can retire a few boomer generation politicians (left and right) at all levels of gov't, I think that will help.

Quality from quantity. Seize control of our genes.
Impermanence and eternity.

We, and certainly not I, are not perfect.
We will never be.

Instead of allowing evolution to be a random walk, we must define the purpose of humanity.
Quality is real and independent of the Observer or the observed.
(Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. Persig)

Our purpose is to extend the life of Gaia as the Goldilocks Zone moves outward due to the sun's warming.

We are now flirting with it's inner edge.

Hey guys, remember me? the one who said oil was in a giant bubble and nobody believed me? oil went from $150 to $30 I think my best work was right here where mr simmons just about rang the bell on the oil bubble.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4287

peak what?

what happened to the natural gas cliff? remember south africa was going to be a disaster? I remember someone said there was going to be a civile war remember when the south was going to run out of gasoline? remember when atlanta was going to have no water? what happened to permanent blackouts?

in the face of peak oil I am an optimist of course. every day I see new developments in the clean energy field. we will get through "this" if there is even a "this."

I like this development:

Google develops prototype mirror for solar energy
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10460913-54.html

wal-mart improved their fleet efficiency by 35% which better their goal of 25% AND saved them $200 million. it's almost like kunstler doesn't know what he is talking about. he is a huge critic of wal-mart and he called google a bunch of children.

Wal-Mart to cut 20 million metric tons of greenhouse gas pollution by 2015
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/27/wal-mart-to-cut-20-million-metric-...

we will adapt.

Plan A is to be the last man standing as peak resource extraction stalls growth and debt unwind takes out all of the countries weaker than yourself first. In preparation, borrow as much money as possible from your competitors knowing you will default and they will hurt most. Use your reserve currency status and control of the largest financial institutions to pull forward phantom future wealth. Use the money to build the world's strongest military with bases near the world's remaining oil reserves, and to keep your citizens just happy enough not to threaten your power. When the unwind occurs, scoop up the resulting deflated resources with force or cash to breath new life into your domestic economy.

If plan A fails, have plan B ready to launch a massive nuclear attack on the most heavily populated consumers of the natural resources you need.

Divert everyone's attention from the real plan with a war on terror, a war on drugs, mock fights between members of the same but differently named political parties, and with promises of great health care and green jobs. Don't worry about climate change because your models tell you the unwind will solve the CO2 emmision problem and because your own geography will be least impacted.

Radical reconstruction of the U.S. transportation order is the best policy we can pursue and promote.

The cars-first transportation arrangement of the United States (which China is now rapidly copying) will make or break the species in this make-it-or-break-it century. If we permit the powers-that-be to continue to preserve it, even with a large infusion of so-called "green cars," we are doomed, thanks to cars-first's stupendous and stupendously wasteful energy requirements, its deep ties to military conflict in our heavily armed world, and probably also its greenhouse emissions effects. If we could mount a serious and adequate program for transcending cars-first transportation through planned urban and inter-urban reconstruction, it would not only provide a way to create millions of new public- and private-sector jobs, thus unifying a potentially very large coalition, but doing so would provide a practical, readily-understandable way for us to bring sustainability, energy constraints, and ecological economics to the center of the stage. This could generate a sense of political meaning and passion amongst a demoralized, frustrated population that is thirsty for these things. Getting this topic onto the agenda would also bring on a whale of a good fight with the U.S. oligarchy, which is certainly the single most dangerous social formation in today's world, on many different fronts. If we fail to press this topic, meanwhile, you can start making your Mad Max plans...

Easy answer: live for today, whilst intensely focusing upon tomorrow. Not the day after tomorrow, just tomorrow.

Nate, now you want 300 words. I'll probably get to that tomorrow, as the Olympics are on TV right now*.

*Don't give me grief or I'll ask how the dissertation is progressing.

We must transition to a sustainable economy where all energy sources are renewable.

Infinite economic growth cannot go on forever on a finite planet. Human prosperity exists among the planet Earth's energy flows, and any economic theory that ignores this will eventually prove meaningless. In real terms, we human beings are at or near the limits to growth of our population, our food supply, and our other energy uses. Continued over-consumption will lead to a catastrophic collapse unless humans learn to live sustainably. Living sustainably means consuming the biosphere's stored energy no faster than the biosphere can replace it, and using only other sources of energy that can pay for themselves without unsustainable inputs from the biosphere. The latter may include wind, solar, and a few other sources, if they prove feasible in the long run; they may not prove feasible. Even in the best case scenario, human beings will have to consume far less energy than typical 'first world' residents in order to live sustainably. If we can teach and learn a global culture of sustainability, our descendants may have a chance of continuing to live a relatively pleasant life in the future. A global culture of sustainability has never existed before. We must conserve as much scientific and historical knowledge as we can to build such a culture in the future.

This exchange from The Road comes to mind.

Old Man: I knew this was coming.

The Man: You knew it was coming?

Old Man: Yeah. This or something like it. I always believed in it.

The Man: Did you try to get ready for it?

Old Man: No. What would you do?

The Man: I don't know.

Old Man: People were always getting ready for tomorrow. I didn't believe in that. Tomorrow wasn't getting ready for them. It didn't even know they were there.

The Man: I guess not.

Old Man: Even if you knew what to do you wouldn't know what to do. You wouldn't know if you wanted to do it or not. Suppose you were the last one left? Suppose you did that to yourself?

The Man: Do you wish you would die?

Old Man: No. But I might wish I had died. When you're alive you've always got that ahead of you.

The Man: Or you might wish you'd never been born.

Old Man: Well. Beggars cant be choosers.

The Man: You think that would be asking too much.

Old Man: What's done is done. Anyway, it's foolish to ask for luxuries in times like these.

The Man: I guess so.

Old Man: Nobody wants to be here and nobody wants to leave.

I think our goal should be 350 million people, as long as they are spread out globally.

How to get there: Release a biological weapon in an International Airport, with the goal of accomplishing that task undetected. If there is no detection, then the national orgin of the person is not known and no animosity can be directed at any one nation. The bio weapon would be designed to cull 95% of the world's population. It would take a sophisticated team of bio chemists to make sure that approx. 5% of the population will survive. In this manner, there are no wars, no radioactive wasteland, just people quietly dying en masse. It would need to have a long incubation period, like 4-6 weeks, so it can spread worldwide and infect just about everyone before there is any knowledge of a problem and leave no time for work to be done to develop a cure.

Then the planet would start to heal. Wildlife would start to multiply, the forests will come back, the CO2 levels will flatten and then start to slowly drop, temperatures will stabilize, yet humankind will still have yet another opportunity to get it right, by living with nature in a sustainable manner.

Call it 'Operation Take Two'.

At the heart of our cosmology lies the idea that we are separate from everything else. If we are to create lasting changes, we need to start to mend this rift within--and among--ourselves.

How best to do this? One key way would be to reignite our senses, that is, gain direct sensory experiences by being out of doors, observing (seeing, hearing, tasting, touching, smelling, intuiting) the variety of so-called Others, unmediated by anything or anyone else. These sorts of experiences are our best teachers, showing us how myriad others live, regaling us with their beauty, teaching us reverence, and filling the deep need we have for connection. As we do this, we can begin to work with other humans to restoke our imaginations. We need to tell ourselves different stories. Our language has led us to this place and we need to work with it to lead us to a place where we feel secure. Any of the issues we face now can be tied to our human desires to fill the holes within ourselves. Even if we could all wake up tomorrow with a better-designed monetary policy, devices that let us know exactly how much energy we were using (ancient or current), better-educated women (educated according to what? one must ask), these holes would still be with us. As rube cretin mentioned here earlier, our other relations, as the First Peoples called them, are waiting for us. I think they're waiting for us to grow up, to come back home.

Cherish what we have been left, walk lightly today, leave more for our descendants. Share.

Real growth can only come from using what the sun is bringing us today, not using the storehouses of the past, or borrowing from the future. Maybe 1/2% real growth is possible, certainly not 3% or 10%. But first we must shrink. A sustainable planet might have five hundred million people living in and near comfortable small towns, not unlike those of 75 or 100 years ago, with farms and crafts, and yes some technology. If tomorrow the world's wealthiest 10% cut consumption by 75% and one woman one child become a world norm, consumption could be reduced by a third and we would begin the only gentle way back to a planet that is sustainable for all life.

(There are many steps that need to be taken, so I'll just add this one that hasn't been stated explicitly above.)

Implement the Oil Depletion Protocol based on conventional oil only.

I intentionally left out the Tar Sands, CTL, and "Oil Shale", as these are predominantly too expensive and would impart too much in the way of climate change impacts. For those who are unaware of the ODP;

http://www.oildepletionprotocol.org/theprotocol

• The world and every nation shall aim to reduce oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate.
• No country shall produce oil at above its present depletion rate.
• No country shall import at above the world depletion rate.
• The depletion rate is defined as annual production as a percent of what is left (reserves plus yet-to-find).
• The preceding provisions refer to regular conventional oil—which category excludes heavy oils with cut-off of 17.5 API, deepwater oil with a cut-off of 500 meters, polar oil, gas liquids from gas fields, tar sands, oil shale, oil from coal, biofuels such as ethanol, etc.

Perhaps the most important goal we can strive for right now is a closed loop energy cycle to power our bodies, i.e. an agricultural cycle with no waste.

Note: This plan says nothing of a closed water cycle but that is a topic in and of itself.

Response: 289 words
Our current system, to mention nothing of mechanized equipment required, relies on massive petrochemical fertilizer inputs being dumped onto our farmland, with some of it being used by the plants to form the carbohydrates, proteins, and lipids that power our bodies. The leftovers are then washed into the nearest stream or river and eventually reach the sea, causing algal blooms along the way. Our waste undergoes a short treatment process and is then also dumped into the sea. The result is pollution, widespread soil depletion, and utter dependence on petrochemical fertilizers. The solution is to close those two ends and use that material to replenish the agricultural system at the other end, the soil. The engineering challenge is in processing massive amounts of human waste into humanure. The faster the waste is turned into manure, the less space would need to be set aside for storage of that waste. The social stigma that would likely go with that would require us to use humanure only to grow livestock feed, and to use livestock manure to grow crops for human consumption. Weed harvesting from watershed effluents can also be used to recover the soil nutrients that get washed out of an agricultural basin. Thus the nutrients would be recycled repeatedly through the system, being used as a carrier for the chemical energy required to power our bodies. It would also then be possible to quantify the rate at which food energy and associated nutrients can be supplied based on the amount of material we are able to process and how much land is set aside for agricultural purposes. From those data we could accurately predict the maximum sustainable population and create a legal basis for unfortunate but necessary population controls.

Nate,

It shows a woeful lack of understanding of basic economics to claim that debt is a zero sum game. To claim that one party must lose is absurd.

Bond and credit markets exist precisely because there are mutually advantageous trades possible between potential borrowers and lenders.

Since the Apocalypse Now crowd on the Oil Drum loves to indulge in fear mongering (left wing fear mongering as opposed to the right wing fear mongering of the former Bush Administration), I can see no greater Apocalypse than the disappearance of credit markets and hence debt.

Simplify your life, before it gets simplified for you.

10 Ideas To Change the Future

1. Restore real honesty and real transparency in Government. We need politicians who believe the American people are intelligent enough and mature enough to understand the issues. No President should ever tell a lie to the American people. From Bush "no new taxes" to Obama "transparency" in the health care crisis it doesn't work. Lack of integrity never works. A person's personal power relates to their personal integrity...so why would we want a President without personal power.

2. Make energy priority one. Make use of many resources to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, for instance natural gas as per the Pickens plan can help power buses. Solar and wind need to be expanded. The two birds with one stone is to tax energy use by gradually implementing sales taxes on energy and use those funds to subsidize alternative energy. This will impact both the supply and the demand side of the equation. The American people have to understand that either their money will go to our Government to get us out of this energy delema or it will go overseas.

3. Fix social security and medicare. These are unfathomable and unfunded liablities. It is not doing a favor to the American people to have them believe they will be supported for 30% of their adult life with income and medical care. When social security was passed by Roosevelt the average life expectancy was 65. It will not be popular to tell people the Government can not support them for 30% their adult life because one you give something to someone it is hard to take away. People have grown to expect this as a right. There has never been a change in age eligibilty that has affected those under age 55. However, real world reality must overcome unrealizable fantasy. We can not ask our children to give up their future to support our retirement. It is not fair and it will never work.

(Stop reading here if you want as per contest rules)

4. Fix the healthcare crisis. Government must take the approach that it is the cause of much of our healthcare crisis. Government in various forms has caused an astronomical increase in the cost of delivering healthcare and in some ways reduced Americans coverage rates. The Federal Government has passed on the under-reimbursements of medicare for the aged, medicaid for the poor to those under 65. It requires free care for perhaps 20 million aliens with no consequences and the system has to pass on those costs. Many States require mandated coverage for chiropractic, unlimited mental care and invitro fertilization which are absorbed by those who don't use these services. Medical malpractice lawsuits need to be more limited. The U.S. has more lawyers per capita than any other country. The extra cost of is born in terms of high insurance premiums for doctors, discouraging doctors from practicing, higher cost of services for the public and worst of all defensive medicine. Some studies show that 25 cents of every dollar and 1/3 of all tests are spent on defensive medicine. While there needs to be compensation for the injured there does not have to be unlimited liabilty. Eliminate laws that prohibit insurance from being sold over state lines. State overregulation in States like NY have caused millions to be uninsured because they cann't afford the premiums under the State mandated systems (ie NY does not even allow age discrimination so it costs a 20 year old costs $300-$600 to insure). Do extend Cobra benefits by creating a longer but modified transitional period, do use Federal funds to subsidize to an extent the cost of State guaranteed insurance pools for those with preexisting conditions, do, do have the States create a model health insurance act, do not allow partial drug coverage (people purchase 2-3000 maximums without understanding the risks) rather make it simply full coverage or "yes full or no", do not allow insurance companies to drop the insured due to claims or raise premiums based on claims already in place in many States). Do allow children to stay on parents policies until age 28 or until no longer a dependent.

5. The U.S. Federal Government must quickly determine whether or not we need to take immediate action on global warming. The U.S. can not depend on the U.N. or International Universities or on many vested interests on both sides of the argument to find the truth. The U.S. Government and the U.S. President must take a hands on approach to evaluate all the evidence fairly and determine the best course of action. If it is an urgent problem then it is likely that technology rather than international cooperation will be part of the solution because it will be difficult but not impossible to get the developing world to prioritize the problem.

6. Create a new world order. Don't eliminate the U.N. but deemphasize it by creating an Organization of Democratic countries (ODA). Eligibilty will be based on meeting a "World Constitution - Guidelines for Freedom".

7. Put in term limits for Congress. Politicians need to focus on what's right, not on re-election.

8. Phase in a modified National sales tax (that wouldn't apply to food and clothing but would apply to energy) and reduce income taxes. Half of Americans no longer pay income tax. Everyone needs to contribute at least a little . The Government needs to think in terms of incentives. A sales tax by its nature discourages spending while income taxes discourages productivity.

9. Simplify Government. Trust the people. For instance, why do we need so many programs to help the poor and why are there so many bureacracies? ...because the Government doesn't trust the people to do the right thing. One or two programs (ie. subsistance and unemployment) paid in cash will simplify and put faith in the people.

And pass a line item veto or a "modified line item veto". The Congress may not be willing to give up too much power to the executive branch in an outright line item veto. The modified line item veto would allow the President to veto specific items and the Congress would have the power to override the Presidential veto but the override would have to be in a secret vote (the only time a secret vote would ever be used in Government) so vote deals could not be made and Congressman could vote their concious as to whether to cut spending without fear of political repercussions.

10. Use the communications pen rather then the sword to encourage international peace and cooperation. We need to communicate better to the world that we do not seek to impose our way of life or values on them and mean it. However, we also need to better distinguish between our friends and our enemies. We need to use communication as a better weapon against our enemies. For instance, we could drop leaflets on Iran, who is at war with us anyway, which was done in Berlin during WWII. We need to clean up our own house and stop acting as if we know all the answers for the rest of the world. We need to communicate and act in accordance with the principal we simply want the people of the world to have the freedom to choose their own values.

By acting as a model of success we will have the chance to change our futures and that of the world.

First hard reality: We - all of us - must live within our means.

Second hard reality: Our means will be shrinking in the future as non-renewable resources deplete and we are left with strictly limited renewable resources.

Everything we really need to know, and everything we really need to do, flows from those two hard realities. These apply across the board, at the micro scale of individuals up to the macro scale of nations and the entire globe. Accept these fundamental realities, and things simplify considerably.

Any effort to deny them or to pretend that we can somehow get around them is doomed to failure, and will inevitably result in having even fewer means available in the future than there would otherwise be.

When one accepts these hard realities, then numerous things start to become quite obvious:

Energy: The transition from non-renewable to renewable energy resources is inevitable. The sooner we all get on with it, the better. Those renewable energy resources are less concentrated (as Greer pointed out a couple of days ago), and the reality is that we are unlikely to be able to come up with sufficient capital to enable us to replace non-renewables on a 1:1 basis. Living within our means will therefore imply living with far less energy. Thus, it is going to have to also mean being far more efficient in our use of energy. One need not worry a very great deal about how to make this happen - the coming energy scarcity will force it to happen, one way or another. All things considered, though, those who accept the reality and get ahead of the curve in making the necessary adaptations will fare better.

Other Resources, and the Stuff they make: What applies for energy also applies for other material resources, and the things that are made from them. As the non-renewables deplete, we are going to be left with only what we can produce renewably (from biomass) or can recycle. The limitations that this imposes means that the material basis of our culture is going to have to downsize considerably. We are going to have to transition to a culture where there is just a lot less "stuff", everyone is going to have to live simpler lives, and what little there is will have to be built to last and be carefully maintained and kept in good repair. Again, this will happen, because there will be no choice.

Money and Debt: An economy that is shrinking is an economy where debt of any type, held by anybody, is a deadly millstone around their neck. I don't know how existing debts are going to be settled, or more likely repudiated. However, it is obvious that the era of debt is about over. In an economy that is forced to live within its means, and especially if those means are shrinking, having an expanding, inflationary money supply is the last thing you want; it will only result in misallocation and waste, which is exactly what you don't want. It will undoubtedly require some painful and costly lessons before national governments finally learn their lessons; most likely, they will end up being replaced by new governments that have learned the lesson and do get it.

No time for more, but this should lay a good foundation.

elicit & assist in the formation of community, & local decision-making by making authorizing 'more' democratic global decisions by local groups of 100 or less.

declare global holiday wednesdays for crisis education and voting. 'clicker' type technology would be how votes would be tabulated.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/higher/a-new-electronic-voti...

clickers would be passed out by local/pop. density. after a period of wednesdays of study of distributed materials such as nate's above, multiple choice options developed by governments/central banks of the world would be presented for voting. initial voting/decisions would be regarding a global currency reset/reboot.

....ok, a few obstacles, yeah; but hey our US pres was a community organizer at one time so maybe he'll use that model & work it here & pass it on to world leaders as the best way forward.

in some ways i think an oil crisis now is to be preferred over a financial crisis as it would focus us 'locally' more.

Give up the idea that we are individuals, and instead accept that we are really members of a collective, or various collectives, collectives based on common interests; rival and competing collectives, struggling for control over and access to resources, which we need to live, but which are becoming scarcer.

We are already, at least in many parts of the world, rapidly moving away from the paradigm of "capitalist growth" towards something else entirely. The post-growth society, where access to resources won't be allocated by the "capitalist market" but instead by ones position in the "bureaucratic market" which isn't really a "free market" at all.

One can argue that "capitalism" and the growth model have been breaking down for over thirty years, and that the current crisis of capitlism is a transitional phase from growth capitalism to non-growth capitalism, or neo-fuedal capitalism, "merchantalism" reborn!

The state is now stepping up to take control of the "free market", but it's a state that is under control and serves the new, unfree market system. Representative democracy, hand in hand with this, is being replaced, as it has to be, with unrepresentative democracy, but that is merely a detail in the changes we are going through, icing on the political cake so to speak.

How then do "we", whatever "we" really means, move from the unlimited growth paradigm, of the democratic, consumer society, successfully to the limited growth, post, consumer society? That is, without most of us being turned into serfs in a new form of fuedalism?

Well, it won't be easy! The chances of success, that is, most people in the rich west maintaining the luxurious lifestyles they've become used to, is slim. The age of the affluent middle class, the American Dream, is over, and won't be coming back anytime soon.

Theoretically, if we lived in a "democratic" society change, political and economic change is possible, because power resides with the people or the majority, only we don't live in democratic states, and radical change isn't possible, for voting is one thing, power is something else entirely. Power is connected to ones access to economic power, ones wealth. Like they say, a billion dollars is worth more than a million votes.

Change, or the opportunity, or the possibility of change, can only come through, in theory, political power; a change in those wielding political power, and through it the direction of society, taking the reins of power away from the rich and powerful and reshaping the world for the benefit of all, not just our rulers.

But, the ruling elite need to be so weakened and their grip on power loosened before any alternative collective stands a chance of seizing power from them, and how that happens, without a collapse, with all that implies, is beyond me.

What good questions!

My perspective has been lately influenced by reading William Catton's "Bottleneck..." and James Hansen's "Storms....".

For me, our predicament boils down to this:

First,we are ungovernable and unmanageable. That is, we humans cannot govern or manage ourselves.

Second, we cannot manage or govern the planet.

This does not mean that we should stop trying to do the best we can in terms of relating to each other or the planet.

On the contrary we must try to find ways to live in the best ways we can so that we can help the next generation or so to survive. (Remember the "7 generations" idea and all that.)

None of us lives in the best ways we no how and even fewer of us take the time and energy to understand how best to live. The matter is ultimately quite a mystery.

We are happier if we try to nurture the next generation. This seems to be hard-wired into our brains.

Finally, we do not control outcomes. Like it or not we impact others and our planet in powerful ways. We do not know all about that. Nor do we know about all the other forces ebbing and flowing on our little planet, solar system, and universe.

We know far less than there is to know. We see "through a glass, darkly." We stumble through our lives wearing the equivalent of an old-style welding helmet and a deep sea diving suit. Even the best of us with the best intentions do this.

The worst thing seems to be that most of us get caught up in pride and do not realize how little we know and how much damage we can do.

As a practical matter, we ought to note that we in the USA have been perfecting the fusion between big government and big business into what B. Gross called "Friendly Fascism." We have the best politicians and courts that money can buy.

This gets down to philosophy and religion. Why are we -- individually and collectively -- here? I like -- still -- Kurt Vonnegut's answer:

"We are here to help each other through whatever this is."

As to the things we do that go terribly wrong, and the things we do not understand or control, I still like Vonnegut's famous phrase:

"And so it goes.."

So while I stumble along doing the best I can I lament for our ignorance and corruption while I rejoice in the glimpses of what looks like Truth and Beauty. I experience a deep brooding joy that I cannot really explain.

From one Beggar to another, I like to make note of places that welcome me and where I find sustenance. Can of beans and pot of coffee over a small fire, that sort of thing. Online too?....heh, heh!

More Transparency- People behave better when watched by a crowd.

The premise of TOD is that governments and corporations are hiding the truth about society's energy supply from the citizens. There is alot of truth to this assertion because all major energy projects are at least partially subsidized by governments. Which individuals benefit the most financially from projects is obscured. Al Gore barnstorming for global warming while simultaneously working to throw contracts to alternative energy companies that he holds privately through his venture capital firm is just one glaring example.

I don't believe that there is an energy supply problem. I forsee a smooth transition to alternative energy sources. Unfortunately, I do not have access to basic information which requires my predictions to be based on assumptions which may turn out to be wrong.

My most radical transparancy proposal is to eliminate cash and make every transaction public - all purchases - all payments - all barter. I believe most people would be alot less selfish if the sources of their wealth were known to everyone. Healthy, able-bodied people would work harder since normal people are embarrassed to sit around doing nothing while their friends and families work for a living. I realized my suggestion would have many unintended consequences and I don't recommend getting from where we are today to a more transparent future too quickly. The radical idea is meant to provoke thoughts.

As exemplified by the comments in this thread, the cause as well as solution to most problems is all too easily ascribed to "Them" and not "me", so my goal is to concentrate on "Me" and actually doing something instead of just talking about what "They" or "We" should do - hopefully winding up 2 steps ahead of the bear and one in front of "Them".

To implement my goal I need to decide which problem I can actually prepare for, or at least hope mitigate to some extent. I take into account my personal situation, assets and abilities as well as liabilities. Once I've decided on the set of problems I think I can handle, I make a plan and work it. Of course each of us has a different view and a different toolbox so what I worry about and plan to do is bound to be somewhat different than others' but while many are looking over their shoulders, OOing and AHHing and describing the bear's claws and length of teeth in great detail and making charts and equations describing how fast he can run and of course when and if he'll really start to run, I want to be taking baby steps in a different direction. But that's just me.

Harnessing "teachable moments" from "oil price volatility” is my suggestion. Helping people understand that sticker shocks at the gas pump (of the recent past and shocks on the way) are caused by PEAK OIL could help voters in democracies come to their senses as to what is at the root of the present mess.

Unfortunately, other "teachable" issues regarding why energy profligacy is bad suffer from the "frog in the slowly heated pot" problem.

It doesn’t matter how many scientists agree that we're killing our beautiful planet, if a majority of the electorate does not agree a climate disaster by 2040 is something that we need to be concerned about now.

Similarly, most voters consign the impacts of Peak Oil to the distant future. Anyone that has given it a few moments of thought are usually reassured by the argument (and fact) that if we're at Peak Oil, then half the oil is still left in the ground.

Most voters see Climate Change and Peak Oil as distant intangibles. Problems that our kids and grandkids may need to figure out. Getting to the paycheck at the end of the month is the most tangible issue facing most of us.

By contrast, instability in energy pricing is a major problem that is self-evidently with us here and now. Many TOD readers understand that this volatility is a direct consequence of Peak Oil. The TOD constituency also largely gets that volatility in oil price is probably the “wrecking ball” that is laying waste to our capitalist economic and democratic political arrangements.

If a wider part of the electorate could be educated that RIGHT NOW:
1) Volatility in energy prices is being caused by Peak oil and that
2) This instability is causing the collapse of our civilization in a hurry;

…then maybe our political elites would give up their meaningless “liberal” vs “conservative” arguments and start grown-up debates on what we are going to do.

A further benefit may be that the media stops describing activities such as accumulating Olympic medals in speed skating (fun as it is to watch) as “historic”.

Retire all personal debt, including mortgages, as fast as possible which is currently 12 months from today for me.

My perception is that historically wealth was the ownership and control of land, buildings, ships, businesses and food production. The control of those assets allowed accumulation of more of the same. Debt historically was the opposite of wealth regardless of standard of living. Debt was a "pawning" or risking of owned assets as a way to raise cash and current lifestyle. My assessment is that debt was taken on when the owned assets were no longer paying for their upkeep or the person/entity was tying to accumulate wealth faster than the existing assets would generate it. In either case Debt was to be avoided because it risked losing control of hard assets slowing wealth creation even further. I view most people today confusing access to a particular lifestyle, through use of debt, as becoming wealthy. I think this applies to businesses as well as individuals since individuals run companies. Assuming a persons skill set allows for the accumulation of wealth without risking hard assets it seems foolish to risk the assets already controlled (by taking on debt) in an attempt to quickly increase lifestyle. My last statement is that almost no one I talk to views the world this way today. Virtually all are convinced that leverage and use of debt will make you wealthy or make the organization wealthy. I do not believe in this new ecomomic philosophy. Usage of assets without ownership is not wealth creation, which is my true goal in life.

The best bet for most is to grow their intangible wealth.
Invest in your health, your knowledge, your family, your friends and all forms of intangible wealth.
Work less, enjoy spending time for you instead of spending dollars.
Read a book ,meditate,walk,garden,be in contact with nature .
Share your knowledge.
Learn new skills.
Intangible wealth is worth more than money.
It can not be taxed , seized or stolen.
It does not depreciate.
It will follow you wherever you will be.

the suggestion of a solution requires the recognition of a problem.

until such time as all parties involved at ALL levels ( from the very pinnacle to mud cookie eaters in a metaphorical basement) recognize the problem and their contribution to it as typically dictated by local social stratification, it just doesn't matter.

there will always be persons with their own agendas at heart, despite the outward misdirection, that conflicts with the goals required to maintain a semblance of reasonable life on this planet. these people may or may not rise to positions of power that require certain trappings represented by wealth, technology and waste inherent in the loops.

without completely changing human behaviour to a new paradigm within a fairly short span, rejigging the global economy to un inforce digidollars and their representative suggestion of physical wealth, wealth trading practices that eat the young (very nearly literally), and superiority complexes consisting of the representative 'big stick' provided by a combination of all of the above we would need to do this (don't ask me how you would get everyone on board):

exit the front door of your home and turn left, pick up the first item weighing over 5 kilograms you see, if the person to your left has already left the home and gone left then you should now turn right to face the person approaching you with a 5 kilogram device. beat each other until one is dead.

this is the space human kind has left to use to move boldly into the future. everything else is utopian and completely unrealistic given the well known confines of standard human behaviour at all levels.

Arithmetic,population and Energy

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=81739

Watch these videos:
http://www.simoleonsense.com/jeremey-grantham/
At 1.3% per year population growth rate,there will be one human per square meter of dry land in 780 years and the mass of people will equal the mass of the earth in 2400 years.

For the USA: Autarky.

From the Wikipedia: Autarky is the quality of being self-sufficient. Usually the term is applied to political states or their economic policies. Autarky exists whenever an entity can survive or continue its activities without external assistance . . .

Approach: Move to a Command and Control Economy. Select technologies that can be reproduced within USA borders. Basically solve for a sustainable economy and society with a super linear programming model or whatever is appropriate using only available resources with the United States. All non-resource variables are endogenous. Limited individual rights but few economic rights. Moving towards such as state is only possible, IMO, when all other options look far worse. Think long term -- there are probably many things that could move us in the right direction by creating Critical Materials Priorities that require Federal approval for use. These could be expanded gradually over time. If there is time.

Hilary Smith

Goal/objective #1: Support, reward, protect, provide timely evaluation of, and timely approval/rejection for the discovery and early development of True Technical Breakthroughs by technical individuals in the private domestic sector through government policy and funding.

Goal/objective #2: Pass federal law explicitly restricting employer rights to the intellectual property of their few million technical workers. By law, make it possible for workers to freely research and innovate after work on their own time, with their own tools, without fear of theft by their employer, and without the fear, time and cost of non-compete clause defense.

These two goal/objectives are extracted from my first ever public essay. It can be viewed at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13953.html (or request a copy from s.morra@tx.rr.com). It is titled "An Engineer's Solution for Sustained Economic Growth" (or "Golden Goose Dies. Takes society with it. Has the Last Laugh"). Try "backing away from the trees and look at the forest" for the last ~150 years to see how to get out of this jam, including oil.

Increase the price of garbage pick up in every suburb and city by 250% for every garbage can past the first one each week. Continue to enforce penalties for burning, littering, etc.

This will cause people to think more about their consumption and eventually cause the public to demand that the corporations quite wasting so many resources on packaging of their goods.

Raise the cost of energy (electricity) and gasoline by 100% through taxation.

This will cause people to think more about their consumption and to ration their own use. The increased revenues could reduce our debt.

(I sold my car and ride a utility bike. I sold my house in the 'burbs and live in the country and have a 7Kw PV system, and I don't have garbage pick up. So if everyone lived more like I live, it would lessen the load on the planet. I think ultimately there will be a natural decimation of the population and that we are all just killing time and playing mind games until either a) we die as an individual [yes, it will happen, I am convinced] or b) we reap the natural consequences of our wanton destruction as a populace. I'm not really concerned about which will come first.)

Say goodbye to the oil god, say hello to the sun god!

For about 500 years, ever since people started to become dependent on coal (then later oil) ever increasing populations created ever more fear and greed and panic that there wouldn`t be "enough". I firmly believe we can blame WWI WWII and Vietnam War (also Iraq, other modern wars) on oil---war is the consumer of last resort. I think the reversal now (and perhaps forever) in energy availability is a profound relief for everyone on a private and personal level, including those in the government. We will probably see things improve because human relations will improve. People will be happy to share again when they are not so worried that someone else is going to grab a larger slice of the pie that is just sitting on the plate. All that excess won`t be there to covet. When you live with lower rate energy flows from the sun, you share with others and take it slow, for example letting nature do the work of cleaning the water, and so you don`t mess it up in the first place. It will take time to get there. We will appreciate the sun again as never before....

The paramount need for sustainability is Deliberative Democracy.

The root of all of our problems lies with our inability to dialogue at the political level. Related to this is the lack of incentives for the average citizen to learn about the issues that affect him/her. Deliberative Democracy is a method of decision making that draws the citizenry into the debate (since a certain amount of power gets filtered down to their level), while keeping the debate civil. This is not theoretical. Many jurisdictions have tried this with excellent results (witness the recent provincial citizen assemblies drawn up to look at constitutional change in B.C. and Ontario).

The mass media is currently a stumbling block, since it tends to distract with baubles. However, Deliberative Democracy is sometimes able to break through the logjam. Several years ago, in a senatorial race between Mitt Romney and Ted Kennedy, the citizenry was drawn in to discuss the issues at hand, and the resulting wider viewership was larger than that for either the Superbowl or the O.J. Simpson car chase.

I've studied Deliberative Democracy quite thoroughly, and if I could make one recommendation for reading up on the subject, it would be Changing Maps: Governing in a World of Rapid Change, which was led by a distinguished roundtable and was published by Carlton University Press.

There is a way out. It was figured out by the science community and published in 1934 as the Technocracy Study Course.

Energy economics... biophysical economics (without using money), connected with ecological economics..., the invention of M. King Hubbert, Howard Scott, the Technical Alliance from Columbia University, Frederick Soddy, Alfred Lotka, Richard Tolman an American mathematical physicist and physical chemist, among others. Technocracy and thermodynamics
These ideas represent the flowering of American culture and thought from the 20th. century.

It drops Adam Smith throwback economic ideas which track back to a time of low energy conversion. The basis of the Price System is a throwback to Middle East contract society based on human labor.
That time is over.
Technology, robotics, engineering design, eliminates purchasing power by eliminating jobs. Human labor productivity is no longer a factor.
Kilowatt hours do not need to be monetized.
Money measures the abstract. That will no longer do. Resource destruction for money is pointless and destroys sustainability.
A Technate would operate within a given resource base and consuming would become a right of citizenship.
Energy accounting eliminates both the basis and the need of all social work and charity. It would reduce crime to but a small fraction of what exists today.
If we don't like the war, the poverty, the misery, the waste, the crime, the disease, and the corruption which the Price System spawns, why do we stick with it? Viable alternative is possible.

Waste not, want not.
It is an old adage, outdated, something our grandparents who lived through the hard times said, from a puritan age that no longer applied.

Yet I am shamed by my waste, and am forced to try to define it. Is driving a car a waste? Living in an air conditioned home? How about if I love my dogs and feed one...or two...or three? At what point does my love become waste?

The astounding waste that occurs with no gain in lifestyle would be definitional. If I must drive, or feel I would not have a full life without driving, am I getting the best use out of the resources which allow me to drive?

If I feel that air conditioning is imperative for comfort or for health, do I avoid allowing the cool air to leak useless through the gaps and into the atmosphere?

Are the arts a waste? What is the return on energy and thought invested in Beethoven’s 5th Symphony, painting “The Last Supper” or a Gothic cathedral?

Can efficiency be art? I think of paths not taken. On ebay there is a car for sale, a Lancia Appia from 1954, a four door sedan, beautiful and comfortable. It will carry 4 or 5 people. The car is 1 liter engine (60 cubic inches, a beautiful V-4). With today’s technology, an engine of .5 liters (30 cubic inches) a ten times reduction from the sizes commonly in use would do.

Would a tenfold reduction in consumption be helpful? The gap between no technology and even a bit is the difference between barbarism and modernism. The next step to gluttony is all too easily made.

There is not enough energy, water or soil in the universe to fund gluttony and idiocy.
Roger Conner

RC

Increasingly, if it isn't already the case, politics; in a post consumer-led, market, non-democracy, will cease to be defined by the "right" "left" dichotomy, which on the mass scale was arguably a myth anyway; politics in the era of scarcity; of jobs, credit, growth; politics will increasingly revolve around "up/down" rather than old-fashioned "left/right."

I was let go from my construction job in Sept. 2008 and have collected a gov't unemployment check since then. Diagnosed Alcoholic. 3rd DUI, lost my license for 5 years. Eligible for re-instatement in 2013. Lost title to my vehicles. Since 2008 I get around by bicycle, and this is difficult, but I have added racks and lights to make my journeys safer. Living in Wisconsin makes it a challenge in Winter, but I have adapted, as long as it is 20 or above, and not too windy, no problem. I have lived in a tent. Went UpNorth Wisconsin to live with friends and found it to be a mistake. One of the most interesting experiences I had was living on a dairy farm near Fairchild WI. What an eye-opening experience. Never got paid (in fact, it cost me) in money, but received a treasured and valued experience. What small dairy farmers must endure... only to be going broke and working insane hours... should make us all be ashamed to pay so little for the dairy we consume. I also helped to construct (concrete work) a MASSIVE new dairy barn at a commercial operation.. The Labor is all ill-paid Mexicans living in poor conditions. It just cannot continue this way, nor is it (as we all know) resource sustainable. Massive human population reductions are necessary. Human population growth must be checked, either voluntarily, or through natural processes. The current economic model is broken and cannot be repaired.,,If I loan you 10, yet require 11 in return... this is an unconsianceable contract. Somewhere, on one of these threads I read of a "Gifting Society", and believe it can provide an economic answer. Socialism in action. I do believe the industrial age is unsustainable and rapidly coming to a close. For my friends, I now provide remodeling services in exchange for food and shelter (barter) however realize that the current mode of oil fueled luxury living is coming to an end. Jefferson argued for an Agrian society, and I believe he was right. The collapse of agriculture, by whatever mechanism or happenstance, will bring human population levels back onto check. We are in a catch-22, No Corporate Farms, No Fuel, No Cheap Oppressd Labor, No Food!. Eat your Computer??? Gold??? Stocks??? Bonds??? You will eat your children and neighbors!

There is more than enough energy in easily accessible Uranium and Thorium to power an advanced planet-wide civilization indefinitely.

Moreover the technology for efficiently using that energy is available within 1.5 decades. We should make sure we use our abundant coal and NG reserves to keep civilization running until this technology is ready for deployment. The NRC should be quadrupled in size to hasten this. Our nuclear labs around the world should gear up to develop and test the variety of technological options we have. Here are a few links.
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/nuclear-faq.html
http://www.intellectualventures.com/TerraPower.aspx http://www.hyperionpowergeneration.com/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870379150457507937053846657...
http://www.gen-4.org/
http://www.ltbridge.com/
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf53.html

Choosing the best options that we humans are capable of adopting and implementing.

Politics is the Art of the Possible

The key, IMHO, is to create a plan that a wide variety of interest groups can support for disparate reasons. Rough draft shows that a major push for renewables & efficient non-oil transportation results in GDP +13%, CO2 -38%, oil use -22% employment +4% for USA in 20 years.

Something for everyone.

United Nations "Green Economy Initiative" is looking at options for regions of the world, with some data from me. Same numerical analysis.

For USA, have the Dept. of Energy sponsor a comprehensive review of all rational options (conservation, nukes, NG vehicles, HV DC, etc.) with a major organization providing data on a specific option (GE nukes, wind, hydro), Sierra Club (conservation), etc. Show results by the "Four E's" (economy, energy, environment, employment) for each option and synergies between them.

Baby steps will be implemented (in USA) till we panic. When we panic, a viable blueprint of the best possible options, under the circumstances, will be available.

I would like Hans Herren to be the face and voice (a la Al Gore) of the comprehensive plan.

Comparable studies for other nations/regions can be built on the on-going UN work.

Best Hopes !

Alan

Nate
I really liked your essay. Good summing up and I can see the evolution of your thinking. Maybe evolution is the wrong word - maybe "maturation" in its best sense.

I don't think you will see any comments you have not seen before, including this one: we will go through a very turbulent time and reach some stability in perhaps 30 years.

If you open a gate,lacking a complete and certain knowledge of what may be living on the other side,you are betting all the chips.

As Greeenish says , we are sentinient as individuals , but not collectively,and we have opened many gates and released many monsters.There are numerous gates yet to be opened, and monsters of unknown feocity are known to reside behind some of them.If we keep on opening gates with less than perfect knowledge, we will eventually release amonster that will devour us all.Thus it behooves us to play our cards as consevatively as possible;everything else is an academic question if we don't survive.

We need to establish a caste system based on developmental stages (as formulated by adherents to Piaget's theory, like Robert Kegan and Susan Cook-Greuter... see http://www.cook-greuter.com/9%20levels%20of%20increasing%20embrace%20upd...)

People would be divided into each caste by developmental stage. No one at stage 2.5 or below is allowed to vote. No one below stage 4 is allowed to hold public office. You must be a 5 or higher to hold the senior positions like President, Prime Minister, and Chief Justice. Inherent in the system is the ability and the desire for each individual to grow to the next development stage. Since very few people living at the higher stages embrace any religion, the true test of progress would be when religion disappears. Anarchy would only be attempted by those resistant to personal growth. Fortunately, persons at lower levels are also susceptible to advertising, peer pressure, and social status.

Go back to an all-cash society, make the money out of something which cannot be easily duplicated but can be easily recycled. Stamp them all with an expiration year. Low-end workers, like farmers, get paid directly by the government with new money; the government also provides some services which must be paid for, and the money spent on them is just destroyed and recycled. In between, it circulates around normally, except that people tend not to hoard it due to the expiration dates. Also, allow some trade-in for new cash, but only a limited amount per person per year. This system would probably have no need for taxes, and money would be tied almost directly to labor with no real chance for financial shennigans that inflate the wealth of money-brokers relative to everyone else without producing anything useful. Of course, this would require a highly socialistic government to work.

This way, being and staying wealthy would be a lot of work - probably too much work to coerce government into doing things which benefit nobody except you. And it's more likely to be useful work, to boot. Did I mention that inherited wealth doesn't last either?

I can do it in one word, from which all else flows: SHARE

The implications are vast, humane, in accord with religion, in tune with evolution, and productive of equality and more fun.

Goal: building community.

How: A group of people who live in geographical proximity has the potential of becoming socially, economically, energetically and environmentally sustainable. We use what we call "The good neighbors vision". We have several modules: a second hand and produced locally shop, a community supported agricultural system, and an interest free bank. Everything inspired by Permaculture and Transition Initiatives.

My goal: Conversion of paper capital into decentralized natural, built, social and human capital.

I wouldn’t have even thought such a thing was possible until I sat down and struggled through wrapping my head around Catherine Austin Fitts’ concept of a Solari. A Solari is a public financial corporation whose sole purpose is to do just this — convert wealth-on-paper into real wealth at the community level, for the benefit of everyone. It works like this: the Solari builds a database of all the capital flows in a neighborhood, then advises both local government and private investors where to invest in the neighborhood to save money and better the community — that is, build up natural, built, social, and human capital. After a year or two the database becomes something of a case study in how to increase local wealth and it takes on value in its own right. Then based on the value of the database, the Solari issues stock at two levels: A-stocks can only be held by people who live in the neighborhood and they confer voting rights, but no dividends. B-stocks can be held by anyone in the world, they pay dividends but confer no voting rights. Holders of A-stocks have only indirect personal incentive — without dividend payments, their payoff is in bettering the community and their obligation is to drive up the value of B-stocks, which happens through bettering the community. Holders of B-stocks get their payoff because their stock value goes up, and their dividends come from money the Solari makes investing in the community. Thus the Solari is able to pull global capital into a neighborhood and convert it into decentralized natural, built, social, and human capital.

*Be observant, and take note of, current events that disrupt communities and societies.

The earthquake in Chile took out all basic infrastructure and badly disrupted the JIT (just in time)delivery of goods and services. Looting gangs roaming cities and armed citizens protecting what is left of their lives.