We have become a nation whose economic system rewards sociopaths and clerks, with most people just pushing data around, or organizing it.
We need to become hunters and gathers again, not betting life on a pyramid scheme that all know, bit refuse to accept, will come tumbling down.

Yes and worse, what should it reward? We are paid according to the quality of or energy not the quantity , surgeon/laborer. If we had a calorie meter. . lets see i burned 5000 calories fixin your door Mrs. Johnson at .50 cents a calorie thats 3000 plus materials.
There is no justice we're all victims of circumstance for better or worse.
"become hunters and gathers again"
I dont think the transition will be a choice or smooth. It has been a long time since we lived that way and how many hunter gatherers can the planet support?we will be scavengers first,and the ones "rewarded" with survival may be those willing to eat there own kind.

'become hunters and gathers again...' How many hunter gatherers can the planet support?

ex-addict - Good question...let's look. Prior to the invasion of the Spanish in the early 1700's the Kumeyaay Indian Tribes existed sustainably as Hunter Gatherers in the Desert Sage Biome from Baja to the Laguna Mountains and extending east as far as Escondido for over 10,000 years. Recent excavations place these developments as far back as 20,000 years.

What were their populations? Estimates vary from a few thousand to as many as 19,000. What is the population of these same areas today? A: Ten Million or more. And don't forget that due to development all of those ecosystems would be unable to support even a few hundred. The only intact eco-systems in California are contained in 130,000 acres contained in the UC reserves (35 secluded intact reserves maintained by the University of California Natural Reserve System).

Kunstler coined the term "Wile E. Coyote Nation". What that means is there's no getting back to where we were before without a great crash.

Conclusion: We're going to either make this civilization thing work or we will go extinct as a species.

Joe

Conclusion: We're going to either make this civilization thing work or we will go extinct as a species.

If your parameters are economic collapse leading to social collapse, then I strenuously disagree. If you are including climate change of the +6 degrees C variety, then I agree. A new Ice Age less a snowball Earth scenario also would not lead to the demise of the species. What are your assumptions?

The 6C+, Snowball Earth and global nuclear war are the three scenarios I could see leading to the demise of the species. Other than that, we are too adaptable, too creative and too able to terraform the planet to go extinct otherwise.

In a complete collapse scenario you would still have groups, both large and small, banding together to survive. If the planet can support farming, people will farm. What will NOT be possible until after a massive die-off and some years of regrowth of the ecosystems will be large bands of hunter gatherers. It would be hard in most, but not all, areas for more than small populations to be hunter gatherers for at least some years.

However, fish populations indicate the rebound of animal populations can happen quite suddenly once you leave them alone. But the oceans are relatively intact ecosystems compared to land ecosystems. I suspect they would rebound faster for that reason and because of the sheer numbers of offspring many aquatic lifeforms have. On land, the population growth should be slower for the opposite reasons: the ecosystems are wrecked over a large area of the earth and most lifeforms - animalia, anyways - breed fairly slowly by comparison.

Of course, much depends on the speed (and type, but let's ignore that for a moment) of die-off. A sudden collapse of the human population would remove constraints on flora and fauna quickly and likely result in a relatively fast rebound of life. However, the ecosystems would need time to balance, so any stocks would not be reliable for some time. Still, say one to five years for a stable food supply excepting climate impacts. If die-off is slow, then one would expect the environment to be even more severely degraded by people taking desperate measures to simply survive. Billions of out of control people would spell a massive die-off of flora and fauna, too. With the additional environmental degradation, destruction of ecosystems and depletion of flora and fauna to minimal levels - and the extinction of many - it would take longer for ecosystems to balance and would help drive the human population to very low levels.

Or maybe not. I'm writing this with only my own thoughts to back it up, so...

Cheers

The 6C+, Snowball Earth and global nuclear war are the three scenarios I could see leading to the demise of the species.

Realistically, only the snowball earth scenario leads the the extinction of humans. The dieoff from +6C might be high, say 50% to 90%, but some groups would survive and eventually repopulate the earth. Similarly the global nuke war, would leave some areas survivable, especially isolated areas in the southern hemisphere (which would get much less radiation & short term global-winter type climate effects). Even in a high radiation scenario, humans would still be able to live and reproduce, even if cancer reduced the lifespan significantly. Chernoble, is a great boon to wildlife. Perhaps the life expectancy of a few of the animals is a bit shorter than it otherwise would be, but without lawyers suing other animals that has little impact on the survival of the species. Global nuclear war, is much less severe than even a small (say 2KM diam) asteroid impact.

ccpo, nice thoughts and no problem that they are just yours, others think like quite like that.
I'm working my hypothermia solution. I'm remote, and I fully expect an exodus to the cities. I think the general thought that people will head to the cities in hard times is accurate. Hypothermia draws resources from the extremities to keep the central core running as long as possible. Frostbite, fingers and toes go first. Got a few burns myself from the maine mountains.

My thought is that this is not a bad thing, I'm a toe planning to survive. Figure I've got a foot warmer hidden. While all the attention is targeted on the core, it actually frees up resources for those who are really remote. When these people head to the city , they aren't cutting wood, or shooting the wild turkeys.
Heck the wild turkeys take bird seed from my hand.

Government, military, will all be focused on the greater piles of people, the need to control runs strong. I'm very happy to see people leave. It frees up even more resources for me. It means the existing government, whatever that turns out to be, is very busy just getting food to them all. I'm small and insignificant, and they will never see me. They will be concentrated on the core and not the toes.

First fire tonite, cleaned the chimney today, stove black and new gasket. Don't really need it, it's just comforting to see the system work. About 38 degrees here now.

As I get older, I do get slower, next years wood is cut but it isn't all split yet. How many of you have 2 years of energy stored , for heating your house?

Do you even have any system in place that warms you without spending $$ and getting a delivery? And I also mean rely on the grid, paying your electric bill. How long can you rely on the job to give you $$ and how long can you rely on the grid? Your heat pump does not work without electricity. If you don't pay the bill you are SOL. Lots of BAU here and thinking that is cutting edge.

Peace to you all

Don in Maine

Don,due to a windstorm that dropped a couple 3 big fir trees next to my house.I have around 3-4 years split and stacked.And covered..

Lots of 5 and 6 gallon pails in the barn.

I am the senior Inspector type in my dept.25 below me,however ,[not the highest paid]The former ceo/owner told me once that I would be there when they shut the door,because the management knows who does the work[nice

I am 20 miles outside Portland,at the edge of the bedroom communities..between 2 old logging towns around 5000-10000 pop.I live at the end of a dead-end road,I know the neighbors,mostly old,retired,and self-sufficient.W/150 fruit trees,huge garden,spring,and such,I worry less than most.

I think we will make it until its not a issue to make your house payment.I have a feeling we will have some financial Armageddon in our not to distant future.

This sounds really weird.I have stopped obsessively focusing on this bailout/preps ect. and began to resume construction work on a small sailboat.I have been so absolutely outraged/spun up at the affairs of the last two weeks that I ,in the interest of my mental health,am doing something I enjoy,this allows me to shift my attention,and decompress a bit.

I still have a few things to finish up...some dental work,and new glasses,but I am better equipped than 99% of the people I know,and am simply living my life...

I refuse to let this bull#&$ screw up my head.

Yes, I, too, have had a bit of a shift over the last few days. Funny thing is, I anticipated financial meltdown during this time frame. Doesn't make it any easier. Until it happens, it's possible it won't, right? Until this happened, I had thought there was some small difference between Obama and McCain that made it worth voting for Obama. I was waiting for the election results to determine whether the US was a viable choice or not. That difference is now down to almost nothing, and the chance of us making our home in the US is getting quite small. Fortunately, we have options.

I find myself relatively disinterested in what happens next. I can't find much reason to think it will make much difference. My key event now is martial law. Will it come or not? Given how much in the pocket of the financiers Obama is, I no longer see his being elected as a possible trigger for ML, but see it as likely if either 1. the crisis deepens suddenly and/or 2. the people of the US miraculously begin to become more activist.

Cheers

Don,

Glad you are so well prepared. I, unfortunately, am not. There's land available, but I can't convince family a change is needed. We've a little money, but a very small amount when considering what we need to do. If worse comes to worst, we'll go to my brother's small orchard/farm, but the size isn't really sufficient.

It would be possible to buy a piece of land pretty much anywhere for a few thousand dollars and work the soil into good farmland ourselves over some years while putting in a straw bale or cob-type home, for example, but we'd be isolated from family, if so. No community to speak of. Not ideal, but a last resort.

My concerns for the remote hideaway approach are three: availability of what may become critical goods/services, such as medicine, medical care, tools, etc.; too small a group for self-defense; and the government going all Roman on us and confiscating land for food production. Forced/indentured/peasant food production. After hearing Martial Law being used as a threat to get the King Henry Paulson Bailout, Socialism and Welfare for Bankers and Financiers Act of 2008 passed, I have little doubt it will be invoked in the not distant future.

Best of luck,

Cheers

At least one of TOD staff members has expressed that concern. That those who know how to farm will end up as peasants. We aren't at "peak population control" yet; the US government is likely to have methods far superior to the Romans'.

We aren't at "peak population control" yet; the US government is likely to have methods far superior to the Romans'.

Not peak control, but peak technology. As we now know, the surge worked for at least two reasons, neither of which was the number of troops. One was the ethnic cleansing and the other was the new technologies they are using in Iraq. Wasn't the story about a melted bus in Baghdad posted here at TOD? We also know legislation for new-fangled Manzanar's is in play, that troops are now being prepared for use on US soil vs. US citizens.

Not a bad time to be an expat.

Cheers

I was thinking of more subtle technology. Like drugs and other mind control techniques.

Heck, look at how advertisers get us to enslave ourselves by spending money we don't have for things we don't need. All while using relatively benign methods. Methods may be less benign in the future.

we will be scavengers first,and the ones "rewarded" with survival may be those willing to eat there own kind.

If you would like to see how a post-apocalyptic world will look like you won't have long to wait. Cormac McCarthy's movie version of his post-apocalyptic thriller The Road will be released into theaters on November 28. Apparently apocalypse has hit the big time as it features A-list stars: Viggio Mortenson, Charlize Theron and Robert Duvall.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/movies/27road.html

What is Cormac McCarthys' rationale for the collapse? He never explains that in the Novel: Global Warming, Peak Oil, Nuclear Fallout...take your pick.

The director of “The Road” is an Australian, John Hillcoat, best known for “The Proposition,” and many crew members were Aussies as well. In conversation the “Mad Max” movies, the Australian post-apocalyptic thrillers starring Mel Gibson, came up a lot, and not favorably. The team saw those movies, set in a world of futuristic bikers, as a sort of antimodel: a fanciful, imaginary version of the end of the world, not the grim, all-too-convincing one that Mr. McCarthy had depicted.

“What’s moving and shocking about McCarthy’s book is that it’s so believable,” Mr. Hillcoat said. “So what we wanted is a kind of heightened realism, as opposed to the ‘Mad Max’ thing, which is all about high concept and spectacle. We’re trying to avoid the clichés of apocalypse and make this more like a natural disaster.” He imagined the characters less as “Mad Max”-ian freaks outfitted in outlandish biker wear, he added, than as homeless people. They wear scavenged, ill-fitting clothing and layers of plastic bags for insulation

The end of the world... Sounds like fun!

Joe

Gee...I read The Road some time ago. I can't recall a bimbo in the novel.

Though I must say Theron is nice to look at but?

This movie if true to the book will be a 'killer'. Scare the shit out of the audience.

The part about the gangs storing the others in cellars to feast off them at leisure was rather disturbing. But the real plotline was about the fathers very real attachment and concern for his son.

Overall it was overpowering and extremely dramatic. Not for the faint of heart.

Airdale

Charlize Theron only has a few scenes in flashback. In the novel the wife (Theron) had committed suicide before the events in the book take place.

The Road is wonderful and heart-wrenching. A heavy read. It knocks the mercury out through the top of the doomometer--fitting for the mood of our times. I hope and fear that the movie will stay true to the book.