185 comments on DrumBeat: October 5, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Rebuilding Suburban Tyson's Corner
Home to 17,000 and work for 120,000+, 40 million square feet of parking. The key to transformation is 4 DC Metro stations.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/04/AR200810...
Best Hopes,
Alan
In a "rail saturated DC" developed by Ed Tennyson and I (as proof of concept that Urban Rail can be retrofitted to post-WW II sprawl), Tyson's Corner was the terminus for three light rail lines as well as the planned Metro line going on to Dulles.
From memory, the Purple Line would be extended past Bethesda MD to Tyson's Corner, VA. A planned Columbia Pike Light Rail line from the Pentagon/Crystal City would also be extended and terminate at Tyson's Corner and the Virgina Beltway Light Rail line would go from Springfield to Tyson's Corner.
IMO, all plans are well enough advanced that, with funding, all four could be open and operating within 8 years if funding was made available immediately.
Rail Saturated Washington DC
For a complete listing of a "rail saturated" DC (all lines economically justified with $20 oil)
1) Dulles Metro Silver Line to Leesburg - 29 miles $5.6 billion (up from 23 miles as planned today) $5 billion 80,000 AWOT 283,000,000 pax miles annually
2) Purple Light Rail Bethesda to New Carrollton - 15 miles $1.5 billion 70,000 AWOT 105,000,000 pax miles annually
2b) Spur – Silver Springs to Columbia –
2c) Extend past Bethesda to Tyson’s Corner -
3) Columbia Pike - Crystal City-Skyline-Tyson’s Corner – 13 miles $500 million 40,000 AWOT 36,000,000 pax miles annually
4) Capital Cities Light Rail - Shady Grove to Fredrick - 30 miles $1 billion 30,000 AWOT 98,000,000 pax miles annually
5) Centreville Light Rail - Vienna, Mannassas, Dulles - 20 miles $800 million 30,000 AWOT 61,000,000 pax miles annually
6) Richmond Hwy Light Rail - Huntington-Metro-Ft. Belvoir-Springfield Metro- 15 miles $500 million 20,000 AWOT 30,000,000 pax miles annually
7) VA Beltway Light Rail - Springfield-Tyson's Corner - 12 miles $450 million
70,000 AWOT 101,500,000 pax miles annually
8) Anacostia Light Rail - Bolling Field to Minnesota Ave Metro Station - 9 miles $300 million 20,000 AWOT 18,000,000 pax miles annually
9) H Street DC Light Rail - Minnesota Ave to New Jersey & Florida Avenues – 5.5 miles $275 million 30,000 AWOT 27,000,000 pax miles annually
10) Georgetown Subway - Bethesda-Georgetown @ Wisconsin (reroute Red Line for 2 stations and use in section of new subway)- P Street-Union Station – 6.2 +4 miles - $1.8 billion 50,000 AWOT 60,000,000 pax miles annually
10b) 3 station shuttle – Foggy Bottom (Orange & Blue)-M & Wisconsin-P & Wisconsin (Georgetown) Single track
11) Red Light Rail in Baltimore - Charles Center West to Social Security - 8 miles $350 million 30,000 AWOT 36,000,000 pax miles annually
12) Electrify Railroad - Union Station & Landover MD to Richmond - 120 miles $750 million 11,200 AWOT 164,000,000 pax miles annually
13) Extend Baltimore Light Rail Cromwell to Harundale & Marley - $90 million
3,000 AWOT 8,850,000 pax miles annually
14) Wilson Bridge Light Rail - Alexandria to Branch Ave Metro Rail Station – 9 miles $500 million 23,500 AWOT 34,10,000 pax miles annually (if bridge designed for LRT)
15) Charles County Light Rail - Branch Avenue to La Plata MD – 14? Miles $800 million 9,000 AWOT 23,150,000 pax miles annually
Ed also had a list of four projects to avoid, so this is not a "kitchen sink" plan with every possible option included, but one assembled with mature judgment. Raise gas to $9/gallon and those 4 projects might require further scrutiny.
Do the above and what will DC Metro VMT decline to ? Especially in an oil scarce era.
And apply to same approach across the nation.
Best Hopes for fewer VMT,
Alan
These all sound great - in fact one of the 4 stations near Tysons will be walking distance from home. In fact, they have already started the utility relocations that are needed.
Financing is my greatest concern however. A weakening economy, increased costs for the oil that municipalities are using (needed for heating, transportation and also for asphalt) combined together will make it harder to get these done. In the past the Federal Government helped to pay for lots of these sorts of things, but it isn't clear how much will be available in the future..
Right now they have also started construction of HOT lanes in the beltway. High-occupancy toll lanes, done with the help of private financing. It all strikes me as a huge wasted effort.
Continued thanks for this well-thought out advocacy, Alan.
I am a little curious about the negatives these got, and yet I didn't attempt to neutralize them with plusses. I does serve to remind me that there are strong views against what you've been proposing.. and yet if that's what these negatives are about, I'm disappointed that these objectors didn't show up and make their point.
Oh well..
I don't think Alan was downrated because of opposition to rail. I think he was downrated because people are tired of hearing about it.
I think it's more a case of having watched the King Henry Paulson Bailout, Socialism and Welfare for Bankers and Financiers Act of 2008 get passed and realizing the Perfect Storm has arrived, with the first hurricane force winds coming ashore and wondering, "WTH is this guy thinking? Where's the money supposed to come from?"
And maybe a little light rail advocacy fatigue...
Still, I'd not encourage Alan to stop. Were a solution possible (It's not), he'd have the right idea.
Cheers
I love the fact that the actual name is TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program). Very appropriate, since it's designed to cover up the problem, rather than fix it.
Apparently they did change the name: the original proposal was to call it the Congressional Relief for Assets Program.
Were a solution possible (It's not),
Silver bullet vs. silver BB.
In the real world, it is not "solution/no solution", it is a matter of degree.
We are decades too late for nearly complete mitigation. The issue is what do we do now, since we cannot reverse history.
Public works are a standard gov't response to recessions/depressions. Let us focus then on what will help towards the future.
In a wide variety of scenarios (backed by historical examples) rail and electrified rail will make things "better than they would have otherwise have been".
It is not an issue of BAU, it is a matter of what workable tools we will have to work with to create a new social and economic order.
The more, the sooner, the better.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Don't worry, like I said, you've the right idea for keeping the world as it is, it's just a decade or two too late. The one big issue I have with your plan is that it really does encourage BAU of some form. IMHO, BAU in any form leads back to where we are now eventually. That's not a solution, it's slow suicide.
We have to think not just outside the box, but look for an entirely different box altogether. I think that means small communities connected electronically, autonomous/free regions no larger than current states, etc., etc., etc.
But are present locations the right locations for such a socio-political organizational structure? Many likely are not. Your rail could be the tie that binds, but if it comes first, it will bind us to the present. There's plenty of petroleum for a world not based on it to use judiciously for building something like the rail system you envision later.
Anyway...all this off the top 'o me head. In a hurry to get to the baby and get him in the bath, so... with a grain of salt.
Cheers
Is the perfect the enemy of the good ?
The tunnels and embankments built by Chinese labor for the first Trans-Continental railroad are still in use, but the USA of today is little like the USA of the 1870s.
I took an 1897 subway to ASPO-Boston every day. In 1897, oil was used for lubrication and lighting, but Edison had something that might work better for lighting. Explaining the usefulness of the subway to Peak Oil mitigation would not have made much sense to the builders (how will subways save on lighting ? or lubrication ?)
Yes, some percentage of the new rail infrastructure will be used for just a few decades, but some (most IMHO) will be long lived. That is more than can be said for much of the infrastructure being built today.
Best Hopes for Long Lived infrastructure,
Alan
I wasn't talking about longevity, Alan, but locations.
Cheers
Every post of mine, on any subject, got down rated today. A fan I suppose :-)
Alan
Well in support of your contributions, I'll give a somewhat off-topic comment. I believe you along with others are predicting exodus from suburbs/xburbs. One additional variable in this discussion that very recently occurs to me, and I don't have figures - but it is where the McMansions are - is that a lot of the people who are upside down on their mortgages may live in the burbs. They are, in a financial sense trapped, they can pay their mortgage but if they move they are suddenly 200,000 dollars poorer and perhaps with a negative net worth.
I can almost hear the former Lehman Brothers banker with his house in the Hamptons. "Two weeks ago I was a 'Master of the Universe' making 400,000 dollars a year. Today I am unemployed, my savings (in Lehmans) wiped out, my 1.5 million dollar home worth 1.1 million. If I move I am 300,000 dollars in debt.
Don't know how it factors in, but I suspect many, many people will not wish to leave the suburbs as to do so will involve a "mark-to-market" correction of net worth.
Oh and the Asian Markets have tanked. Sorry. Good luck to all.
PDM
I tend to agree somewhat.
Although Alan's plan is quite feasible and on the surface quite doable it presumes to predict the future and how the populace will react in the terrible times which many also predict is just about on us..
How do we know how major population centres will react. Will they, with their shiny new electric trains and transport systems welcome the countryside with open arms? Look at shanty towns in cities throughout the world. They grew slowly.
Would we be lucky enough to get a orderly progression to that mode of living in major cities? I think it's the best we can expect.
The expectation is, as times get tough, as work is hard to come by and families begin to get hungry, they will move.
They will move back in with families, they will move to where there is an expectation of a better life of simply just a life.
How this migration and exodus takes place is open for conjecture. Building an inviting haven with all the trappings of a lifestyle to be envied, may be asking for trouble.
As I have stated in the past, IMO the time for pro-activity has long passed. We need to conserve our resources and funds to be able to react to the dynamic times ahead.
Will there be welfare, or soup kitchens? At the present time the USA is fed by less than two percent of the population, probably similar to a lot of western countries dependant on technology to support the mode of living they have grown accustomed to.
The proposed expanded and electrified rail systems will be great in a world of BAU but I don't expect that.
In reality, IMO what is about to unfold will in no way be mitigated by any grandiose engineering schemes.
We need to stop thinking that electric trains will be taking business suited gentlemen to the place of nine to five work or families to visit grandma and Disneyland or vacations on the Riviera.
Lets go with what we have, lets see what unfolds and be ready to act and react positively. That's not to say we don't make plans. We have to be prepared to act to fairly predictable scenarios but also be aware that most of what is about to happen will take us by surprise.
The alternative is of course is to build and expend all we have now. We can maybe give the present generation half a chance. The next generation can go @#$% themselves.
Look at shanty towns in cities throughout the world. They grew slowly.
Hoovervilles sprang up in a matter of months/a couple of years. I suspect the same for Shruburbs.
New Orleans still has sugar refineries, coffee roasters, tea packaging, hot sauce bottlers, etc. as well as the port and medical center that once had workers get there by streetcar. We easily could do so again.
Many cities in the USA have plans to build or expand Urban Rail, plans that could start physical construction in 12 to 36 months (see jobs) and be finished in 12 to 42 months (a couple of subways would take longer than that). Why not build them ? And then keep building as long as social organization holds together.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Bandits;
Your opposition to Alan's proposals seems to rest on characterizations that I don't think fit at all with his suggestions.
He says electric light rail, you say 'Shiny new electric trains and transport systems'
He says TOD, or Transit oriented development, and you react with BAU, 'Business suited gentlemen', Disneyland and the Riviera, and the implication that people have to accept the countryside. It's completely out of line with what he is talking about.
TOD means many suburbs and towns would gradually reorganize to take advantage of transportation to get to jobs, to cities or factories, get around the county or the country as really needed. It's pretty much the bare minimum expected of our neighbors in Europe, but Americans treat it like some Fancy Pants notion, maybe because they haven't had any experience with how easy and normal it can be to go to the train station, get a ticket, and read a paper or a book, and get out in the place you needed to get to.
"Lets go with what we have, lets see what unfolds and be ready to act and react positively."
No. Don't just expect to React.. look Ahead! Look at tools that work, and make more of them now. PREact. PREPARE.
'Be Prepared.. That's the BoyScouts' solemn creed. Don't be nervous, don't be flustered, don't be scared. Be Prepared!' Tom Lehrer