193 comments on DrumBeat: October 12, 2008
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193 comments on DrumBeat: October 12, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Credit’s Crunch & Car Sales (linked uptop)
("And with the speculators’ departure, the price of oil is collapsing.")
This was written by Ed Wallace, who hosts a local auto centric Cornucopian radio show every Saturday morning in the Dallas area, that is pretty much 100% supported by auto related advertisers. Mr. Wallace is on record as saying that we won't peak for at least 50 years and says that we need to vastly expand our road network in the US.
In any case, he attributes most of the fall off in car sales to a decline in foot traffic in dealerships, not a credit crunch. In other words, car sales are falling because of lower demand. But notice that he attributes the oil price decline to speculators leaving the scene, rather than lower demand.
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/07/net-oil-exports-and-iron-triangl...
Net Oil Exports and the “Iron Triangle” (July, 2007)
Who is delusional here? Credit's Crunch &Car Sales
When traffic slows down at new car dealerships, the first customers you miss seeing are the best informed with the best credit. For whatever reason, people with good credit who are aware of the world around them are the ones to first show due caution. What is left for dealers are those of lesser means – the kind of customer whose credit elicits higher decline ratios for new loans. Credit rejects were that much higher because there were so many fewer people with exceptional credit applying for automobile loans.
The price of oil (and soon cars) is falling rapidly, but people have no money.
A few do, of course, and the result of any downturn (blip, depression, what's the difference) is to enrich a few at the expense of many. Pretty clearly, Peak Oil has set a ceiling for Peak Money. The "derivatives" were a desperate bid to deny the physical reality of money/food/energy. Their collapse will necessarily bring us back into some rough balance -- at the expense of billions whose lives will be upended, possibly ended.
My main question is the timing of all this -- is it just coincidental that it all comes apart at the end of an 8-year administration? Is it just co-incidental that the last investment bank standing is Goldman-Sachs? Was Sec. Paulson really blind-sided and totally surprised by the rapid collapse of everything?
Was there maybe just the teensiest push in one direction or another by some powerful players?
I saw a once/twice run item in Bloomberg's scroll of GM,
Ford, Chrysler facing bankruptcy. The next morning, Saturday,
replaced with GM in merger talks with Chrysler.
With Ten Year yields rising with every US gov't move now,
who is going to issue LOC's to finance car dealers, much less
loans to dead broke consumers.
This is the watershed moment where the monetizing of everything out to infinity collides with the peaking and decline of the energy growth that makes/made the monetizing possible.
Kind of like a drowning man grasping desperately at another drowning man for support.
Kinda reminds me of the old "Power of Two" a ways back when two loser computer companies (Univac, and Sperry-Rand) merged. I refered to the combo as loser squared.
I suppose if they merge product lines, then similar products from both companies can be combined (i.e. lots of engineers can be declared redundant). But it is hard for me to imagine short term benefits, and this close to bankruptcy.....
That was Univac and Burroughs. Sperry-Rand had owned Univac for many years. As I recall it was liquidating itself at the time.
Houston Chronicle a few days ago ran an article about the lottery ticket sales have declined around the state. They are ignoring the ecomnomy/credit crunch, and instead are blaming low sales on scratch off designs. The Texas lottery commision will rededign the lottery tickets to attract more buyers.
and lastly, about 2 weeks ago i went to the antique shopping event in Roundtop TX, and not many people were there, vendors have noticed less people shopping, to the tune of more than 50% from 6 months ago.
The Oregon Symphony for the past three months has offered two-for-one ticket bargains, which were unheard of nine months ago. Today's newpaper ad inserts have kiddie and adult Christmas toys already heavilly discounted. I'll be looking to see what the impacts are if any at several of the annual fundraising events I attend in Oct. and Nov.