193 comments on DrumBeat: October 12, 2008
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193 comments on DrumBeat: October 12, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
"he attributes most of the fall off in car sales to a decline in foot traffic in dealerships, not a credit crunch. In other words, car sales are falling because of lower demand. But notice that he attributes the oil price decline to speculators leaving the scene, rather than lower demand."
I have mixed feelings about the Panic of 2008. In Calgary, median house prices are slowly declining but only about 5% to 10% depending on neighbourhood. This is not due to sub-primes but because all the speculators who bought pre-build in 2007 are now trying to unload all at once. Yesterday I noticed that 7-Eleven still has signs up begging for workers at $11 per hour plus benefits plus retention bonus.
Some oilsands projects are being scaled back, but this was going on before the excrement hit the rotating impeller blades, and is due to excessive construction costs. Conventional oil still pumps, albeit only at one-third of Alberta's peak production in the 1970s.
I went to set up an estate account last week for $121,000. CIBC said they could fit me in for an appointment on the 21st of this month; I ended up going to a credit union where it will only take them a week to accept my money. So Canadian banks, at least in Calgary, don't seem to be hurting if they are in no rush to set up new accounts.
At the moment, the effects of the "meltdown", or whatever you want to call it, are spotty. There are, and will probably always be, relatively wealthy havens. Calgary might be one of them, but I wouldn't bet on it.
There were a lot of rich people in the USA in the 30's, and lot of them continued to accumulate wealth all the way through.
The Baltic Dry Index is in cardiac arrest, in danger of flat lining.
"Update 12:10 AM: Confirmation comes from the Financial Post, "Grain piles up in ports" (hat tip reader Vox Sanus):
The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.
Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.
"There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy."
So far the problem is mostly being felt in U. S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada.
"We've got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it's going to get a lot worse," said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver...."
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/international-trade-seizing-up-du...
h/t mininggold @ Libertypost.
This pro-farming article predicted the U.S. cannot produce enough corn to meet demand:
http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story...
The USDA predicted high year end grain stock piles, although there is increased risk of frost damage due to late spring planting:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5icdx5w6HrbtM5RxjufzJ1Yxj0YPgD93NLFM80
This Peoria article indicates $4.60 corn prices are much higher than the pre-ethanol $2.30/bushel averages:
http://www.pjstar.com/business/x2004894008/Farmers-reaping-strong-demand
Another writer reported an expected 14% decrease in demand for livestock feed corn. There was a culling of cattle from herds and an increase in beef output as the price of corn reached $8.00 per bushel.
Ethanol demand is down due to decreased driving.
Southern farmers face worst season ever
8 Oct 2008
Victorian farmers are asking state and federal governments to repeat the $20,000 cash grants to irrigators and 50 per cent subsidies on municipal rates that helped them through last year''s drought affected season. Some farmers have received municipal rate increases of up to 68 per cent while irrigators must pay water bills in full, depite not receiving the full allocation. This season is shaping up as one of the worst in the state''s history as northern grain growers start cutting crops for hay, dairy farmers feedlot their herds and horticulture growers ponder their viability. Inflows into the Grampians and northern Victoria''s irrigation storages are at record lows following a failed autumn and disastrous September.
The Weekly Times, 08/10/2008
ABARE says the winter wheat crop is now forecast at 12.1 million tonnes, compared with a previous estimate of 15.5 million tonnes and the original estimate of 22.5 million tonnes in June. Exports have also been slashed by 18%.(http://www.abareconomics.com/publications_html/cr/cr_07/cr07_oct.pdf)
This forecast is under the one earlier this month from the US Department of Agriculture which estimated Australia's harvest at 13.5 million tonnes, compared to 21 million tonnes in September and 23 million tonnes in the first estimate in August. That will be updated in about two weeks.
http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/43893/Australasian-Investment-Review...
I suspect a lot of the "lack of demand" we are seeing is really tied to the credit situation. Either buyer's letters of credit aren't being accepted, or banks that have inventory themselves (of oil, for example) are finding it necessary to sell. There may also be some impact of speculators leaving the market, and short sellers covering.
I have a hard time believing current prices reflect "demand" in the sense we usually think of, it terms of what buyers would use in a properly operating market. Instead, all of the disruptions are having an effect.
Gail, I wonder if there is some increase in bank deposits from people liquidating investments and 'temporarily' parking their money in bank CDs and such. Might this help out at least some banks?