It could if KSA and Canada production falls....;-)

In all seriousness though, due to financial deleveraging and coming depression, Mexico becoming a net oil importer is probably pushed back a couple years, though I expect their price elasticity to oil is lower than richer countries (higher amount of demand is needed). But once this country realizes the precipitous nature of Cantarell ++ (and it has been written about in WSJ and other mainstream places), we are going to have some real problems..

Once production starts declining, the three key factors that affect the rate of change in net exports are: (1) Consumption as a percentage of production at final peak; (2) The rate of change in production; (3) The rate of change in consumption.

Of the three, #1, consumption as a percentage of production, is the most important variable. And Mexico--like Export Land (final peak to zero net exports in 9 years), Indonesia (final peak to zero net oil exports in 8 years) and the UK (final peak to zero net oil exports in 7 years)--is in the "Red Zone," i.e., consuming about half of production at final peak (2004 for Mexico).

Mexico's net oil exports in 2004 were 1.9 mbpd (EIA, Total Liquids). I estimate that they will be down to around 1.0 to 1.1 mbpd in 2008. At this rate of decline, Mexico would be approaching zero net oil exports in around four to five years. However, the Cantarell decline is pretty steep, and subject to what consumption does, it's possible that they could get close to zero net oil exports in as little as two to three years.

And Venezuela's net oil exports have been dropping at an average rate of 100,000 bpd per year for 10 years. While hope springs eternal, at this rate of decline they will be approaching zero net oil exports in 20 years.

gail -- I doubt this will significantly change the future flow rates. I'm unclear exactly what they mean by "oil well repairs". Perhaps it's just a bad translation of the term "workovers".

MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones Newswires), October 14, 2008

State-run Petroleos Mexicanos has launched a tender to build four offshore oil platforms for the giant Cantarell field where the company hopes to stabilize production levels that have dropped by around a third over the past year.

In a statement Monday, Pemex said the four platforms will be used in the Akal section of the field for oil well repairs. Interested companies must deliver project proposals to Pemex between Nov. 5 and Nov. 14, depending on the platform.

Cantarell peaked in 2004 at nearly 2.2 million barrels a day, over 60% of Mexico's total production at the time. Now it barely produces a third of total production at under a million barrels a day.

Mexico is getting hammered. Slowdown in USA means that migrant remittances are falling. Oil production and exports are crashing. And the drug war, fueled by cash and illegal weapons from the USA, has brought violence from the hinterland into the capital.

Eight were killed and over 100 injured in a bomb blast during celebrations on the eve on Independence Day (Sept 15) in a plaza in Morelia.

On October 2, Mexico's conservative president proposed decriminalizing possession for personal use.

The destabilization of Mexico is one of the biggest security threats we face, in my humble opinion. (Which doesn't mean we need to invade, amigos. Rethinking prohibition, as these law enforcement officers are doing, would be a better place to start.)

And apropos the post, would we be safer if we imported no oil from Mexico through "energy independence?"