Tell me about it. My dad and two brothers are oil men. I'm a farmer/rancher.

I'm sitting on a silo full of corn and a tapped out credit limit at the local bank. Do I sell the corn for more than it will cost me to replace it so I can plant more, or do I sit and wait for people to get hungry enough to allow me a profit on the work I have already done?

My dad/brothers have leases for natural gas projects now in moth balls.

They're preparing to drill a few potential oil wells, but I'd say this is just momentum at work--they had already been planned and initiated before the price collapse. The leases were expensive, acquiring a drilling rig and the necessary pipe and casing was also difficult and expensive.

Being Austin Chalk type wells he's drilling, potential production comes in a flurry and goes away quickly.

$145 oil was too high, too fast. $70 oil works for existing production but not so well for new hard to find and expensive future development. Existing production as we all know is in decline.

Hell, buying existing 3-D seismic studies run $40,000 a square mile in these parts.

In situations like this, the "winners" are those who lose the least. Look at the bright side. You and your family could be in the auto, housing or finance business.

In regard to my little corner of the oil patch, I'm doing the same thing that I was doing at $140 oil and at $20 oil, looking for small, but commercial overlooked conventional oil fields.

YOU CAN LISTEN TO A PODCAST (mp3 file) OF THE ABOVE POSTING BY GAIL THE ACTUARY AT THIS LINK:

http://rapidshare.com/files/156479234/TOD-gta-oct2308.mp3.html

Here's a big factor; coordinated interest rate cuts have reduced the profitability of the Yen (and Dollar) carry trades, where investors borrow @ the low rate in Japan and invest the funds in other countries with higher yields. The across the board reductions in interest rates are having a strong effect world wide on commodities:

Interest-Rate Cuts

The currency may also drop as the Australian central bank cuts interest rate to revive growth, reducing the yields for holding the nation's assets, Shah said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.5 percentage point to 5.5 percent on Nov. 4, according to a Bloomberg survey of 16 economists. The rate stood at a 12-year high of 7.25 percent in August. The country's interest rates made Australia a favorite for investors seeking higher returns using funds from a country with low borrowing costs.

The risk is exchange-rate fluctuations can erode profits.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1ZBc6K1VKxI

Here's another take from the Japanese viewpoint:

``We can't rule out the possibility that our accommodative policy has had some influence on overseas financial markets,'' Yamaguchi, who is currently an executive director at the central bank, said at a parliament hearing today in Tokyo. ``Some people say one side effect of our policy is the yen carry trade,'' in which investors borrow cheaply in Japan and put money into higher-yielding securities abroad, he said.

The central bank kept interest rates near zero percent for five years through July 2006 to spur economic growth and counter deflation. The monetary authority has since raised the benchmark overnight lending rate to 0.5 percent, still the lowest among the industrialized world.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXoln3JUe0Bg

Carry trades tend to cancel the benefits of accomodative policies as they encourage investment outside the countries that initiate the policies in the first place.

DUH!!!

Thanks! This probably explains part of the change in currency valuations.

I don't watch currencies in general. I watch the Yen-Dollar exchange rate. I've been puzzled by recent stories about the dollar going up in value, because it is definitely going down against the Yen.

I've also been puzzled by the reaction of gold & oil. It seems to me the dollar is dropping in absolute terms, just not as fast as Euro. It is notoriously difficult (impossible, really) to put an absolute value on a fiat currency. The closest thing is probably to use gold & oil. What I thought should have happened is that gold & oil stay relatively flat against the Yen, go up a bit against the dollar, and go up a lot against most other currencies.

That hasn't occurred. Since (like most people) I'm convinced I know more than the market when it comes to prices of things, it has led to some bad trades and a lot of cursing at the irrationality of the market (rational==agrees with me; irrational==does not agree with me).

There has been quite a bit of discussion about an apparent disconnect between "paper gold" prices and prices of real gold, if you can find it. The real gold is about double the price of the paper gold. See this CNBC Video showing Jurg Kiener, CEO of Swiss Asia Capital. He tells CNBC's Maura Fogarty & Rebecca Meehan that if the paper market collapses, gold prices may double very quickly.

...or do I sit and wait for people to get hungry enough to allow me a profit on the work I have already done?

<sarcanol> Don't worry about evil, wicked profit. If food keeps going up, there will be price controls after the election. People prefer shortages to earning and paying for what they consume. </sarcanol>

Well then, shortages they'll get.

Like I said, suicidal behavior.

Plant a green fertilizer like alfalfa.