The world has had 4 years of exponentially rising crude oil price while production remained constant. In spite of an huge financial incentive, the producers could not get it up. That is a powerful indicator that the world is at or near peak oil making all other explanations unlikely.

The crash in crude oil price that occurred in the 1980's was brought about by conservation and increased production from non-OPEC countries. Increased production from OECD countries does not appear possible this time leaving only conservation. Once the low hanging fruit is picked conservation becomes harder and harder.

As for plug-in hybrid vehicles saving the day, I would feel more reassured if the auto industry and Bush administration had not thwarted California's zero emission mandate and they had been on the streets for the last 10 years. In the U.S. conversion of the transportation system away from crude oil has not yet begun and will start late (if at all) during a major economic downturn. The conditions are not ideal.

Your argument can also work against you. What if you are wrong? Doing nothing to prepare for peak oil means we will crash and burn on the falling edge.

"Your argument can also work against you. What if you are wrong? Doing nothing to prepare for peak oil means we will crash and burn on the falling edge."

Oh, I have never and would never argue for "doing nothing to prepare", if by prepare you mean reducing fossil fuel consumption. There are easily 25 huge reasons to reduce fossil fuel consumption and peak oil is just one of them. If the price drops, and it looks to the public like the threat of peak is gone, they will probably go back to being comfortable if they can...but being comfortable may now mean using less fossil fuel.

We are about to test something very important: Can fossil fuel consumption stay down even in the face of decreasing prices? Or is the flattening and decline in fossil fuel consumption purely a price related thing? This is big. I don't know the answer yet (I have guestimates, but that's all), and niether does anyone else. But the oil producers as well as the oil consumers are watching this one closely. Their future, as well as ours, may be at stake.

RC

The key is the kinds of cars that buyers drive off new car lots. The well-used lots will only get the cars that were originally sold as new. Many relatively poor people are driving huge, gas guzzling SUVs because that's what sold well to middle-class surbubia about 5 years ago. Not many years before that they were driving the Geo's and Hyundais of a few years earliere.

If we have a couple of years of low pricing, there is an opportunity to wash out upside-down SUV values, rotate through a generation of gas-guzzlers, and get the system well-primed with smaller cars and hybrids. This would be a good time for a gas-guzzler tax on high-consumption vehicles and a rebate for efficient vehicles, but that won't happen.

The immediate problem is that you can't buy many hybrids, CNG vehicles, or high-mileage diesels simply because there aren't enough made, and they don't cover the vehicle size range. Where are the hybrid or diesel/CNG minivans?

Better still would be to use this lower prices to roll out a lot of public transport growth -- if fuel costs less and deflation makes labor and materials less, this is a great period for infrastructure growth.........except that few cities or states can afford it.