269 comments on Creating a Post-Peak Future Worth Living Into
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269 comments on Creating a Post-Peak Future Worth Living Into
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GAIA Host Collective
I'm fascinated with Peak Oil..but I believe in human ingenuity more. We base our assumptions on the outcome of Peak Oil by what we can see now & do now. 20 years ago, we didn't have an inch of the technology that we do now..and many of us could never have dreamt we would. When man IS forced to adapt or "die", he will. We can & will wean ourselves off fossil fuels...probably to a much brighter future. It may be smaller, with less people on it, but that can be achieved in a single generation by limiting the number of children that are born (ugly thought, but perhaps required).
I'm a long time IT person..and many years ago I would sit in envision the things computers might do one day. Most of them were written off by the mainstream as "impossible" or "not feasible" or "too expensive". Today..many of those ideas are mainstream. Did you ever imagine you'd make phone calls on the Internet ? Did you ever imagine you'd be able to listen/watch media on a digital file ? Did you ever imagine we'd have the technology to do what we do today ? Of course not. But, society was driven, much of it because of the potential profit.
Alternative energy will be much the same way. If we WANT all those wind turbines, we'll get them. The earth produces more energy in a day from solar/tidal/wind than..all the fossil fuels that have ever existed on earth.
...of course the road getting there is going to be rough...
Perhaps 1 or 2 months of sunlight exceed the energy content of all the fossil fuels that ever existed on Earth. If fissionable and fusionable materials, such as Uranium and Deuterium, are included, I think Sun delivers about 10,000 times more energy over the next 4 billion years. Sun is definitely the primary energy source.
solar constant: 1353 W/m2
mean radius of Earth: 6.378 * 106 m
World energy consumption in 2005: ~500 EJ = ~5 * 1020 J
The estimates of remaining worldwide energy resources vary, with the remaining fossil fuels totaling an estimated 0.4 YJ = 4 * 1023 J
Earth receives: 1.7291 * 1017 W
During 1 day Earth receives: 1.49 * 10 22 J
First of all this is based on the false premise of what has been will always be.
Second, the history of life on this planet is replete with examples of highly adaptable organisms that actually died when the circumstances permitting their survival either changed drastically or ceased to exist altogether.
It seems you assume that the smart ass little primates that we are are exempt from the basic laws of thermodynamics. Humans seem to believe we will forever be able to outwit nature due to our technological and cultural ingenuity.
Despite that assumption, there is nothing that actually supports this.
All of the schemes for extracting and producing energy, be they fossil or alternative, don't amount to a hill of beans if you can't produce and distribute enough food to adequately feed the continuously growing population of the world. So whether you accept this fact or not, there are currently massive die offs already happening due to starvation in various parts of the world.
Those people are *NOT* adapting.
Of course if by "Adapt" you mean come up with a plan to voluntarily and drastically reduce the human population of the world I would love to hear your thoughts on how that might be achieved.
Every technological solution that allows more people to live on a planet of finite resources, will only compound and delay the problem. There is nothing that I have seen in any culture currently existing that indicates we understand the need to completely end growth now. So there is absolutely no doubt that the laws of nature will therefore limit the so called adaptability of man.
Best wishes for a sustainable human culture.
I think the problem with many people who say that "technology" will allow us to overcome Peak Oil, or that Peak Oil cannot happen because we will "adapt" is one of unsaid (or even unconscious) assumptions.
I believe the assumption of people that say Peak Oil will be overcome or even say that Peak Oil will not happen is that life will go on (but without us humans), or that people will adapt (but without many people less) or that we will find a replacement (there will be no choice since there will be no more of the stuff).
I think that when many people say that Peak Oil will be a catastrophe, they mean to say that adaptation (yes, we most probably will adapt) will be extremely painful and that many will not make it.
So, yes, if we *want* those wind turbine, we *can* get them. Now, will we want them in time to be capable of building them or are we going to wait until we need to shed half of Earth's population before we can build alternatives?
See? it's not that we "can't", it's just that many people actually want the most of us to be able to continue living and actually think that people dying *is* a catastrophe.
Anti_Elvis,
I don't think the problem is one of not being 'bathed in energy' but one of society being entirely addicted to more extreme/concentrated and easily accesible (high EROEI) forms of it. To use an analogy its a little like saying a crack cocaine user could simply start eating all the coca leaves in the forest as there are literally tonnes of them out there...
What we need is a plan to get us from 'A' to 'B' -a transition plan. Unfortunatley the main issue at the moment is not that we don't have a plan, but everyone thinks we are heading towards destination 'C'.
[Edit]In response to FMagyar I would say that I do not believe it is in the fundamental nature of any species to "end growth" be it organic (yeast) or a higher form (man) -we rush towards consuming all...
Nick.
Nick,
We have a plan?! Whoa, I don't think I got that memo. Pray tell what exactly it is. I'd sure like to be in on it.
First let me agree with the gist of your statement.
However, when you (subconsciously perhaps) attempt to distinguish between organic yeast and (inorganic?) higher form man, you prove exactly the point that I was making, which is that Humans have this false belief that they are above these lowly organisms because of their superior intellect, culture, technology etc.. etc..
like yeast we do not posses the capability to live beyond the natural limits of the carrying capacity of our natural resources. We are a product of and dependent on,the natural world for our existence and can't break natural laws with impunity any more than a bacterial bloom can expect to continue it's exponential growth on a finite substrate.
Then again, given that humans, (some anyways) are capable of realizing that we are heading down an unsustainable path. We could,in theory at least, make a conscious collective choice to change from our present course. Though that means we would have accept the reality that growth cannot be sustained and then take that to it's logical conclusion.
No matter how you slice or dice it I have yet to hear of anyone who is willing to speak openly about the consequence of such a choice.
So, what was that plan 'C' again, that you were referring to?
Cheers!
FMagyar
I meant it to mean: we do not have a plan but more importantly we are going in the wrong direction anyway.
...and yess we are like yeast.
Now for that plan...
Well, off the top of my head and as a 1st step I would say the main thing we have to do is rapidly transition an increasingly large chunk of liquid fuels away from ICE / car / ground transport usage. I watched Obamas energy speech in Michigan last night on YouTube and he seems to have the right idea...
The cost of liquid fuel is going to go up and up but I think people will still pay a high price for the utility in some cases -e.g. Business Class cost flights.
At the same time we should beef up the Electrical distribution capabilities and start to prepare for the decline in Gas/Coal with nuclear and renewables.
Its going to be a 30+ year transition.
Nick.