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58 comments on ASPO VII - final thoughts
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58 comments on ASPO VII - final thoughts
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In 1929 the US had a stockmarket crash, but it wasn't until the Dustbowl came along that farmers actually lost their farms in large numbers. But we talk of "the Depression" and not much of the Dustbowl.
The lesson there is that a single crisis isn't enough to knock a country to its knees. It's the combination of different crises that really hurt a country.
For example, France suffered a military crisis in 1870-71, but paid off its reparations within a few years.
But Germany's military crisis of 1918 was combined with a social crisis (civil wars) in 1918-19, and economic crisis to boot - and they didn't recover until after they'd dragged themselves into another military crisis a couple of decades later.
How the US will go we still don't know. But at the moment it's only a financial crisis. An environmental, military, or social crisis is needed to combine with it if it's to cause a genuine collapse which is worthy of being named "Depression" or whatever.
The naming of the whole collapse just goes to whatever the first crisis was.
... and these were of course inter-linked, with, for example, the wide-ranging fight on the Eastern Front in WWI leading to economic difficulties all through Mitteleuropa, undermining the ability to buy German manufactured goods.
Just as the impact of the Dust Bowl in driving farmers into bankruptcy was much more severe, coming on the back of the steep dive in the price of commodities in world markets after the Panic of 1929.
Kiashu, actually I'm not sure that's true, at least in the US. The Dustbowl has a huge resonance - as part of a seperate but simultaneous crisis.
That said, your point brings us back to Dennis Meadows, the World 3 simulations, where the chronic problem was not any one crisis, but the fact that even in fairly optimal scenarios, eventually what is lost is teh ability to cope. I think we're getting very near that point.
I'm really happy to see people asking the question of whence goes ASPO - I've been arguing that ASPO is going to have to start engaging itself with the long term - and the solutions, not the problem - if it is to remain relevant. ASPO is one of the most remarkable collections of minds in the world - it is time to turn your attention to the practical realities of adaptation.
IMHO, of course.
Sharon
Hi Sharon, I agree that the current ASPO approach by itself is insufficient.
But it doesn't follow that ASPO should try to do everything itself. For one thing, ASPO is not a huge organization. It needs to stick to its focus or risk overextending itself.
For Solutions, we need a panoply of organizations, movements and efforts. Each will have a different set of members.
At the recent ASPO-USA conference, the demographics leaned heavily towards white male professionals. The main thrust was quantitative and large-scale (government and industry). I was surprised at the number of people interested in investments.
Some talks were devoted to Solutions, but in general I found them the least satisfying (e.g. high tech improvements to car designs).
Maybe there should be a section of ASPO for right-brainers. It would be nice to be able to talk about soil ecology, permaculture and movement building (my favorites) or the commonsense survival strategies that interest you.
I think it would be possible to approach these subjects with the rigor that is ASPO's strength.
Opening up ASPO to different approaches might make the organization more of a Big Tent, and help members widen their perspectives.
I wouldn't hold my breath though. Fortunately, there are many other venues for right-brainers.
BTW, congrats on the books and the recent rash of publicity.
Bart
Energy Bulletin
Bart,
I think you have (in low tech terms) hit the nail squarely on the head. There are a large number of can do (early retired, very bored) engineers out here who have been outsourced in favor of computer simulations. While we enjoy the rapidity of a computer simulation, we know that it will provide a "safe" solution for the bean counters, not necessarily the elegent one that originally built our infrastructure. Since we are so left brained, we need right brain types to run point. Give us scope, scheudle and budget, and we can deliver.
PS Although female, well dressed, soft spoken and totally helpless when it comes time to open the door, the male demographics are so entrenched I am usually adddressed as "Sir" when in a technical meeting.
Irre -
I know of no way to send a message to one TOD user - so - sorry to others for this post:
contact me at yeskriscan at gmail.com or youtube kriscanshow - if looking for some important peak oil work.
Cheers!