You've talked to Jay so my response is my gut feeling...I don't think self-deception is likely. He could be intellectually wrong and not see the error. However, I haven't seen anyone really poke holes in his position. But, there appears to be an underlying insecurity on his part since his fall-back position on the forums was that "I've studied this more than you."

Finally, his actions appear more in line with someone who has experienced, at least, the beginning stages of enlightenment. Truly enlightened people almost never are on the forefront pushing their ideas. People interested in this might search to see if the Zen parable, The Oxherder, is somewhere on the internet. This is a series of ten pictures outlining the path to enlightenment.

I'm sure Jay would throw up his arms at this. But, what the heck.

Todd

Nate,
Great post!
I found that many of mine understandings of the future came from reading articles on dieoff.org, but I found it hard to recommend it to others as I felt that the understanding of realities were worlds apart. Many people are in for some tough revisions of their world beliefs in the near future.

On trading “lower worth” energy sources with those of higher worth, like oil, is something that in my opinion already is taking place.

Look at China and its growing coal consumption to produce electricity which fuels (or fuelled) their growth in industrial output, generating huge trade surpluses which again is traded to increase imports of energy sources of “greater worth” like…..oil.

One simplistic way to look upon that is that China is now effectively trading indigenous coal for oil imports.

I dunno Nate, I think the connection between electricity generation and oil/gas production is a bit more complex than just saying "we use very little oil in oil production".
When we start building power stations, wind turbines, solar panels, hydro etc and their support networks with electricity then you can say the above.
Until then we are dependant on oil for electricity generation or more precisely the means to gather, construct and maintain the components, even a small amount of oil missing in a vital connection would spell the demise of meaningful oil production.

As you described in a reply above "why was he able to read over 3,000 books on these subjects and connect threads that most people still find opaque"........... Hanson sees the connects a little more clearly than others.