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246 comments on A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
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246 comments on A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
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GAIA Host Collective
Note that if an electric transport corridor runs through a suburb, that brings a large number of houses outside of walking range within electric bike range.
Indeed, if suburban house values continue to slump, as urban townhouse values in large numbers of cities slumped during the 1950's and 1960's, putting an electrified transport corridor through will be required to make the houses sale-able by making it possible to live in them without a car per person, which will open up houses to a substantially larger potential market.
The other thing that will happen, of course, just as with urban townhouses in the 50's and 60's, is a move toward multiple residence dwellings ... which may easily include a cluster of "tiny houses" in back lawn, complementing the garden plots in the front.
Until it snows. Or are all 300+ million of us moving to coastal California? Or am I unaware of some newfangled way we'll all hibernate?
There will be plenty of cars around, there is no need to throw them away, in fact if rarely used they would last for ages.
When the weather is too bad you can drive in, perhaps carpooling, and ride a bike or electric bike at other times, and still save much of your use.
The practical issue is that while this is true, the truth of it is quite unhelpful. Most of the expense of having a car at all is paid out whether one drives it much or not. If one drives few enough miles that a bike can make a serious dent in the car usage, one is probably not driving the car enough to make it pay, i.e. it will rust out before it wears out. And yet getting rid of the car is not an option for most people. In most parts of the USA, there are either long icy winters, or else a goodly number of days when it's not very smart to be outside riding any kind of bike in the full, roasting glare of the blazing summer sun. This last issue is, of course, why there were no really large cities in the South until after air conditioning - which doesn't work on bikes - came into fairly wide use. (Go to any large Southern metropolis, and observe how risibly tiny the pre-World-War-II downtown actually is.)
Um...not exactly, or at least nowhere near universally. In any area that has winter, there will be some use of road salt. In any area close by the seacoast, there will be salt in the air. Combine either of these with a moist climate, and cars will not last for ages. There's that pesky thing called "rust". Cars can last for ages in desert climates that have no real winter, although there are still lots of plastic and rubber bits that deteriorate and cost money to maintain regardless of whether one drives much.
What the cost of owning a car is is so much dependent on the vagueries of the tax system, insurance etc that it is difficult to comment unless you live in that particular country or county.
No one solution would fit everyone, and alternatives vary.
I don't think it is realistic to look at the worst of every situation - sooner or later you have to start working out what compromises you can make, and making the best of things.
For instance, you comment that it gets too hot in the summer to ride a bike in some regions.
Well, most people go to work in the morning, and come home in the evening, when the sun is not at it's peak, and an electric bike would mean that you would not need to pedal and get sweaty.
If that is where you live, if a car ride can't be afforded, you just have to figure out something - perhaps car pooling.
Alternatively it might be necessary to take digs during the week close to your place of work.
Or you might have to somehow get the money for a full EV, and perhaps make people pay for lifts.
In any case, where it is essential present standards of comfort and convenience can certainly be compromised.
I have a 21 year old farm truck that I bought used 10 years ago. It stays outside under no cover 12 months a year in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US. While I only use it ~500 miles/yr, it runs like a top with little to no rust and I expect to be using it for another 5+ years. It especially comes in handy during snow storms, so it sees more than its share of salt.
Velomobiles are all weather biking vehicles, with optional electric-boost hubs.
See an interesting video of an outing.
Notice that the velomobiles are basically trikes with a shell. We have a tandem trike and find that riding in the snow is only a problem after it gets 3 or 4 inches deep. If roadways are plowed, as they are here in Wisconsin, then using a trike in the winter is pretty doable. Road ice is fairly manageble with a trike. However, IMHO, I think trikes and velomobiles are just too dangerous for most winter riding because of motor vehicles. I could easily survive (and I'm a senior citizen) with a trike for most daily transportation needs if motor vehicles were not such a problem for my safety. I believe that it will take a real catastrophe before bikes and trikes are excepted as legitmate vehicles on the roadways - I don't see any type of rational transition. And yet, the vast majority of people could easily bike 20 or 30 miles a day and find new joy in life.
Exactly - just plowing is not enough. Without proper de-icing - i.e., usually, road salt - which is getting to be a serious issue in some Wisconsin cities, it's unsafe, without the protection of a car, to be anywhere near cars that may cut loose and slide at any random moment. And the unsafe zone can readily include the sidewalk.
In Madison (the capital) city policy is not to plow unless there is a large snow, and not to de-ice except on major streets. No doubt this is more congenial to the slimy vermin infesting the lakes, but it does make it extremely hazardous even to walk. Not only are there the sliding cars, but one simply cannot get very far without needing to try to walk cross the slick sheet of glare ice that, in winter, passes for a street. Studded tires even on a normal bicycle do work under some conditions, but they don't solve the problem of the sliding cars.
And also unsafe to be anywhere near cars that may cut loose and slide at any random moment if trapped within a car.
I have no doubt that such will be the case, and obesity, heart disease, hypertension, etc will lessen from the exercise.
Treehuger had an article: It's More Dangerous NOT to ride a bike. The nickel tour is that while you may be at greater risk of accidents on a bike, the health benefits of pedaling outweigh the accident risk by 4 to 1.
Why would snow prevent someone from riding an e-bike for, say, three miles? You are confusing short term reactions and long term adaptation. Since, objectively, snow is no impediment to riding a bike, that means that the general idea that it represents some massive obstacle is a projection based on experience of people who drive cars for transport and only use bikes for recreation, if at all.
My lithium battery doesn't like to get wet so yes precipitation will prevent me from e-biking three miles in the snow. Not that we have snow in Tucson. If I bicycle 300 days a year, so what I take the car in bad weather.
I find it hard to believe that a weatherproof battery container is a technological impossibility.
I was biking 14 miles to work last December, which was a bit much, but I don't see how 3 miles would be much of a challenge.
A waterproof container that can be openned and closed for charging and cheap. I'm out of bicycling mode because my battery blew up last week and I minimized the risks. If you want to go bicycling with wet brakes it isn't any of my business.
That's even less of a worry for any half serious commuter bike than snow.
The only thing that worries me here in Northeast Ohio is freezing rain. For freezing rain, I'll catch the bus most of the way to work, and bike that last half mile, even though its slower than riding all the way.
I keep my lithium ion batteries dry so I can ride 365 days a year in Chicago regardless of the weather.
I stopped driving because I don't need to. I've built a bike that can go 45 mph, a bike that can go 200 miles on a charge and a bike that can pull 1000 lbs of cargo on a homebuilt trailer. There are plenty of ways for us to move forward and prosper in a low energy world.
"Why would snow prevent someone from riding an e-bike for, say, three miles?"
the snow is 1 foot deep ? but what would prevent someone from walking those 3 miles ?
At least in this part of Ohio, the sidewalk snowplow takes a lot longer to show up than the road snowplow, and three miles is further than the sidewalk snowplow goes in most directions. Once the deep snow hits, it really is much easier to get around by bike than walking, even for things that are within walking distance for most of the year.
If the snow is a mere one foot deep, what conceivable obstacle would that be for cycling? Its not like anyone in their right mind would use a "road" bike for commuting on the actual roads in Northeast Ohio. The snow slows you down a bit, but for short distances, its just a matter of allowing five extra minutes.