...given the impact on production from financial turmoil:...

Hm, this is where I get a little confused. How does one distinguish "natural" (geological) decline from economically induced decline? It's probably hard to do, but it seems to me to be a distinction worth keeping (and making). I guess the most vivid example was the SU when an economically induced peak and decline preceded a later geological peak that is only occurring about now (do I have that right?)

Exactly this is what I thought of.

So the financial termoil is pulling back the curtain on ERoEI?

Right now there are many instances where obtaining credit is holding smaller companies back, which I'd say on the face of it operates independently of the geologic decline, or the current price of crude. Inability to obtain credit will impact supply, possibly eventually manifesting itself in a positive feedback loop; or the smaller companies and service outfits will find another avenue of doing business. Or the minor players will go under and be bought for fire sale prices - but will XOM want to tender a bunch of stripper wells?

How does one distinguish "natural" (geological) decline from economically induced decline?

There is no distinction. The economics have always been part of the picture. Less obvious, perhaps at high EROI and for the low hanging fruit - the easy oil.

cfm in Gray, ME