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65 comments on UK Industry Taskforce Sounds Alarm on Peak Oil
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65 comments on UK Industry Taskforce Sounds Alarm on Peak Oil
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Over the past few weeks I've been seeing references here on TOD to decline rates significantly higher than the 2 or 3 percent I'd somehow come to expect - and why did I come to expect that??? It strikes me that a 5 or 6 percent rate - or something close to 10 percent - would make for very rough sledding. Perhaps the lower rates implied a full-bore effort at replacement, but with energy depletion taking out the financial system and destroying the ability to replace energy sources, the decline rate only gets steeper with every misfortune.
Has anyone else been noticing the stories about higher than expected depletion rates or is it my eyes only?
cfm in Gray, ME
Dryki, I've posted a few times recently: Colin Campbell is still talking of an all liquids average decline rate of less than 1.7% (ie 1.35 Mbpd) from 82 Mbpd in 2010 to 55 Mbpd in 2030. Is Colin wrong?
not if he terms it an 'all liquids decline rate', but for a geologist that is kind of odd terminology because it mixes geologic natural depletion (on oil) and economic growth of something else (unconventional and biofuels)
When will some agency do cost tranches for all these fuels? How much can we bring to market at X price and with Y non-energy input costs (land, water, etc.)
1.7% on all liquids seems too low.
We do need a pseudo decline term for syncrude and ethanol based on the nat gas energy inputs. This would in a sense capture the ERoEI at the same time.