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114 comments on Jeff Rubin: Oil Prices Caused the Current Recession
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I used to debate creationists in the public forum. I have debated some of the best. Then one day a science professor said to me: "These people are idiots, they should be ignored, not argued with." And the more I thought about it, the more I saw his point. Creationism is a dogma and no logic is strong enough to penetrate dogma. I do not argue with them anymore, not even on the internet.
I feel the very same way about conspiracy theory wingnuts. They are so wrapped up in their conspiracy theory dogma that no logic can possibly penetrate their thick skulls. They should be ignored, not argued with.
I don't argue with creationists either. I consider it to be a complete waste of time. Most of those whom I've observed arguing with creationists aren't biologists, but are people who get their info from talkorigins.com. This website is pretty good but its PTB have their pet biases & misconceptions. When I hear these biases & misconceptions being parroted by those who do argue with creationists, it becomes apparent where they get their info. In the past, when I've objected to or corrected these biases & misconceptions, I've often ended up arguing with the anti-creationists, which gives the impression that I'm a creationist myself or at least sympathetic with their ideas. I've given up on trying to instruct people online and in fact have given up the landline, DSL & internet at home. Simplify, simplify.
The religious nuts are sure in their knowledge-they know the age of the universe, heaven follows life on Earth (for the chosen), etc. etc.-they aren't interested in any info that might shake their rock solid belief system-just like you.
I have often changed my most firmly held beliefs. In fact I am always looking for data that will prove me wrong. That is the only way anyone ever learns anything.
An example: Concerning the great extinctions I was once the strongest advocate of the impact theory. I debated the the concept endlessly on the internet. Then I hear a lecture Vincent Courtillot , Universite Paris 7: "Mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic: a single cause and if yes which?" found on this page: Princeton University Archived Lectures That convinced me. I turned on a dime. The second greatest extinction coincided exactly with the second greatest volcanism, the Deccan Traps and the greatest extinction of all time, the great Permian Extinction coincided exactly with the greatest volcanism of all time, the Siberian Traps.
The lecture persuaded me to buy his book Evolutionary Catastrophes. Now I know people who still cling to the impact theory simply have not heard Courtillot's argument.
I have no sacred cows, no sacred dogmas, no firmly held beliefs that cannot be changed if the facts dictate. That is because I do not have a belief system other than that I believe only what the facts support. However I do have several hypothesis which are never held very strongly. They are mostly "perhaps this might be the case". Then after thinking about such a hypothesis I usually discard them as "not bloody likely".
Ron Patterson
When you get whacked hard on the forehead the concussion occurs on the occipital lobe. At the end-Cretaceous India was an insular fragment of Gondwana south of the equator in the Indian Ocean. Chicxulub rang the Ocean Planet like a bell, rupturing the crust on the opposite side, resulting in the Deccan Traps. Similarly, the Siberian Traps resulted from a massive impact at the end-Permian. Both basaltic outpourings were the result of bolide impacts - Chicx being an Fe-Ni bolide, hence the Ir enrichment and the end-Permian object most likely was a water ice comet. Large impact craters a quarter of a billion years old exist in Antarctica and in the Indian Ocean NW of Australia. Volcanism may have contributed to the extinction events but both volcanism & mass extinction were precipitated by ET impacts. Please don't conflate correlation with causation.
Problem is Darwinsdog, that the impact happened a couple of hundred thousand years after the volcanism that caused th Deccan Traps had already started. The iridium layer thrown up by the Chicxulub impact is found smack in the middle of the Deccan Traps. A lot of volcanism before the impact and a lot of volcanism after the impact. You are making the exact same argument that I made before I saw the lecture and read the book. Watch the lecture DD, it explains it all.
The volcanism lasted several hundred thousand years.
Ir concentrations in the Cretaceous - Paleogene boundary clay varies from .1 ng g^-1 to 100 ng g^-1 worldwide. Rocchia et al. state: "A search for iridium in 47 samples from lava flows and inter-trap sediments in the Deccan yields negative results. Concentrations are not statistically different from zero, with a minimum detection level on the order of 0.1 ng.gā1 (ppb). This does not help to constrain the debate on the internal vs external origin of KTB boundary events..."
Rocchia, R., D. Boclet, V. Courtillot, and J. J. Jaeger (1988), A Search for Iridium in the Deccan Traps and Inter-Traps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 15(8), 812ā815.
Your assertion that "The iridium layer thrown up by the Chicxulub impact is found smack in the middle of the Deccan Traps" doesn't appear to be supported by Courtillot and his colleague's own research.
I own Courtillot's book, btw, altho it's been several years since I read it. Several hypotheses exist that purport to explain the K - Pg mass extinction. To my mind, none are compelling save the Chicxulub impact hypothesis. In fact, I believe that all of the previous major mass extinction events have been caused by extraterrestrial bolide impacts, with the exception of the currently ongoing anthropogenic event.
In grad school I modeled Milankovitch cycles as sine waves and again as terms of a Taylor series expansion, overlaid the cycles to see if any synergisms corresponded with mass extinction events. They didn't appear to do so. This result caused me to rule out orbital forcing as a cause of major mass extinction events.
I believe the sun rises every morning at 2am. I have been proved wrong every time I set my alarm clock for 2:15 am, eager to rise and start my day at sunrise. I've had to wait for the sun until 6 or so. I have not given up my belief however because, when I sleep in to 8am, the sun is up and has been since 2am. I do not believe in intelligent design because of one simple fact; water does not run uphill. I've spent half of my life irrigating pastures, shovel in hand, trying my best to get water to flow uphill. No luck. In addition, I believe the earth was created, complete with all of it's creatures, six seconds ago. Prove me wrong. Best from the Fremont
Don't forget my favorite explanation for the dinosaurs' extinction - the Verneshot theory. It also may explain the 1908 Tunguska explosion.
The science professor who called creationists "Idiots" was speaking out of frustration, not informed thinking. I'm not saying I blame him, I don't. But I think it is very important for scientists to understand exactly what is going on in these arguments. I've seen a LOT of these confrontations. I work in evolutionary biology; paleontology to be precise.
There are two fundamentally different methods of reasoning which have been handed down to us (from the classical Greeks) that allow us to examine the world in which we live; the dialectical and the rhetorical. The dialectical line of inquiry (scientific method; question, experiment, review data, conclusion) is the language of science. The rhetorical line of inquiry (argumentation based only upon the abstract and the logical) is the language of the legal profession, the church, philosophy.
Both of these lines of questioning are very powerful analytical tools, but they operate by two entirely different rule books. For a scientist (a dialectician) to debate a creationist (a rhetorician) is akin to a boxer agreeing to fight a samurai.
Real world examples of the devastating effect of rhetoric used against the dialectic abound. My favorite was the example of how quickly and effectively Johnny Conchran destroyed the credibility of the forensic DNA evidence submitted by the prosecution in the O.J. Simpson trial. With only a few skillfully constructed logical ideas the rhetorician demolished the prosecution's argument; game, set, match, O.J. NOT guilty!
The best read on this subject is the book by the famous American philosopher, Robert Pirsig, "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance". It is a book every scientist needs to read and understand backwards and forwards. NEVER argue with a skilled rhetorician using dialectical argumentation; you will be sliced up faster than you can say, "evolutionary and developmental biology".
You are saying there are two ways reasoning. Of course there are, but they both do not lead to truth. A skillful orator does not always argue what is right, as you admit in your post. I have often heard religionists argue that there are two ways of knowing, the scientific way and the intuitive, or spiritual, way. However intuition is not knowledge.
I have debated some very good rhetoricians and always held my own very well. In fact I made most of them look very silly. But of course none of them ever changed their minds. A belief held on faith can never be dislodged with pure rational logic. Such dogma as creationism is usually set in one's mind in childhood. It is set as if in cement, never to be dislodged. But I think you are dead wrong on one point. They never make good arguments. Everything they say is usually based on authority.
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A belief held on faith can never be dislodged with pure rational logic
How about the irrational belief that world leaders, especially those from the oil industry, don't have a working knowledge of peak oil and its implications could possibly be making plans that are not public knowledge.
Now that is IRRATIONAL and based on an even further rooted faith. A faith that our leaders actually care about the people they govern and wouldn't off some in a second if it would help there cause.
I'm happy to see that faith is quickly eroding because it surely not based on any evidence that I have seen.
I feel the very same way about conspiracy theory wingnuts.
You totally abandon logic here. You have no choice but to become a conspiracy theorist after 9-11. The gov't forces you to adopt one or another conspiracy theory. And then it tells you not to believe in conspiracy theories! It is one of the greatest insults to the public intelligence of all time.
The 9-11 hearings were held in secret to protect all Americans (from themselves).