I expect more stirring speeches followed by no real action.

We in Australia elected a guy just like Obama, only a pasty-faced bland accountant sort of bloke (we have an aversion to political leaders with charisma), so I recognise the signs. Warm fuzzies, nothing changes.

Being on the other side of the world might mean that you are somewhat removed from the details. Obama has recently said that "we need to rethink how we use energy" and "we are going to have to tighten our belts", not normally something a politician wants to address before an election. We'll have to give him time; Rudd may not be moving at the speed you desire, but he's certainly much better than the person who preceded him.

Expect him to ramp up fuel economy for vehicles up to 10,000 lbs, as he proposed in legislation he sponsored, and other actions related to other legislation he proposed, though noting that the situation now is different in many respects than it was 2 years ago.

Being on the other side of the world might mean that you are somewhat removed from the details. Obama has recently said that "we need to rethink how we use energy" and "we are going to have to tighten our belts", not normally something a politician wants to address before an election.

I'm well aware of the details of what he's said. Since Australia likes to crawl up the bum of the US, we follow US affairs closely here, they'll affect us a lot.

What they say doesn't mean much. After all, Dubya said "America is addicted to oil", and announced funding of research for "clean energy". Sounds impressive! Ah, of course, now the drop in US oil consumption is explained, it's not a recession it's just all that clean energy kicking in!

More than words, he has to take action, and he has to have the co-operation of the Congress.

Rudd may not be moving at the speed you desire, but he's certainly much better than the person who preceded him.

Absolutely. Someone who does nothing is better than someone who does harm. But we should not confuse "nothing" with "good". In our relief to see the arsonist taken away, we should not mistake the man staring slack-jawed at the burning building with an actual fireman come to put out the fire.

I wouldn't confuse what Dubya didn't do with what Obama will likely do; two more different personalities could hardly be found. First, Obama is not beholden to the oil and coal industry. Second, he's onboard with no only PO, but shortcomings of industrial agriculture.

The biggest problem with our energy policy has been to lurch from crisis to trance. And what we need is a sustained, serious effort. Now, I actually think the biggest opportunity right now is not just gas prices at the pump but the fact that the engine for economic growth for the last 20 years is not going to be there for the next 20, and that was consumer spending. I mean, basically, we turbo-charged this economy based on cheap credit. ... There is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy.

I was just reading an article in the New York Times by Michael Pollen about food and the fact that our entire agricultural system is built on cheap oil. As a consequence, our agriculture sector actually is contributing more greenhouse gases than our transportation sector. And in the mean time, it's creating monocultures that are vulnerable to national security threats, are now vulnerable to sky-high food prices or crashes in food prices, huge swings in commodity prices, and are partly responsible for the explosion in our healthcare costs because they're contributing to type 2 diabetes, stroke and heart disease, obesity, all the things that are driving our huge explosion in healthcare costs. That's just one sector of the economy. You think about the same thing is true on transportation. The same thing is true on how we construct our buildings. The same is true across the board.
For us to say we are just going to completely revamp how we use energy in a way that deals with climate change, deals with national security and drives our economy, that's going to be my number one priority when I get into office

http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/10/23/the_full_obama_interview/

If you are claiming that he will do nothing, you are simply making an unsupported pronouncement. Using Rudd as an example doesn't provide us with evidence of how Obama will tackle things. And unlike Clinton, Obama has a Democratic House and Senate. At least let him get into office and get a start before you criticize him for doing nothing.

I'm not criticising the moshiach Obama, I'm responding to the thread's question: "What impact do you expect these changes to have on energy policy in the year ahead? What legislation do you expect to actually get passed?"

My answer was "not much." This is nothing inherent in Obama himself, but in the political process, the media, the public will and so on - in democracy itself. Our elected representatives are followers, not leaders.

Thus my prediction that not much will be done. That's a response to the original question of the thread.

I realise that answering questions posed by people and speaking to the topic of an article sometimes distresses people, but I do try to do it from time to time.

I disagree, and that may be because I live here in the U.S. and have heard more of what he has to say.

In an interview during the summer with the late Tim Russert on Meet the Press, Tim Russert asked whether Barak Obama would release oil from the strategic oil reserve to lower fuel prices. What Barak Obama said is no, because "what do we do when gasoline prices are $8 per gallon." This suggests that he does understand the near future oil supply issue.

He has made reference to addressing climate change many times, so what I expect he will do is promote a policy that will address energy supply and climate change simulaneously.

He is also advocates conservation by speeding up the tightening of CAFE standards beyond what the Department of Transporation has proposed, which was published in a proposed rulemaking to increase CAFE standards to fulfill a requirement in a recent energy bill. I believe that Barak Obama has advocated that he would speed up the tightening of the CAFE standards to that proposed by the State of California, which would be roughly twice as fast as that proposed by the Department of Transporation.

One further note. One reason why none of this has happened before is that there has been gridlock in Washington DC. What Barak Obama proposes to do is take his proposed programs directly to the American people so that they convince their lawmakers to take the action that he advocates.

Retsel

The US 'Stategic' petroleum resrve is a joke -it's a good job Bernanke isn't in charge of it because it would already be just full of fumes...

Nick.

Obama supports ethanol which demonstrates he is clueless about energy.

Obama's Evolving Ethanol Rhetoric, Washington Post, June 23, 2008

But the article says that he only favors ethanol as a stopgap measure until ethanol can be sourced from other sources.

For example, Coskata's cellulosic ethanol process is significantly more energy efficient than corn ethanol processes. There is also a cellulosic diesel fuel process which will be demonstrated with a 20 million gallon per year plant starting up here in the U.S. this month which could prove to be a major breakthrough in energy efficiency.

The support for corn ethanol is really limited, and the support for cellulosic biofuels is enhanced, by the Renewable Fuels Standard which was required by the Energy Bill that was passed last year.

Retsel

Robert Rapier has written on this -extensively !

I suspect you are not impartial:"cellulosic ethanol process is significantly more energy efficient"

Hmmmm hope to hear from you when you have some hard production data.

He has made reference to addressing climate change many times, so what I expect he will do is promote a policy that will address energy supply and climate change simulaneously.

There's just one tiny issue with that ... there is no such policy.

Woa, how can you expect the guy to implement a climate change policy when he is not even in office yet!!!! The other guy has to pack up and leave first, you know, the climate change denier....

Retsel

Kiashu,
Considering that the previous government did nothing for 11 years, I would call signing Kyoto, commissioning the Garnaut report, treasury modeling of a carbon trading scheme, setting a target date to start; a good start for the first 11 months. Meanwhile the opposition is saying don't do anything, wait for everyone else to act first!

They haven't done anything.

- signing Kyoto - paper and words
- commissioning the Garnaut report - asking someone else for paper and words
- treasury modeling of a carbon trading scheme - more paper and words
- setting a target date to start - and more paper and words

Nothing has been done, only paper printed on and words spoken.

"Bugger all" is a great improvement on "doing harm". But it's not that impressive. A few years ago the National Australia Bank had a couple of currency arbitrage dealers get out of hand and lose the bank $400 million or so. I wrote a letter applying for their job. I said,

"I promise to do nothing. I will just surf the net and play games and gossip with my workmates all day. By doing nothing, I shall make NAB exactly $0. This will be a $400 million improvement on last financial year's performance."

Amazingly, they didn't reply and offer me the job, because though doing nothing is an improvement on doing harm, most of us are looking for someone who can do good.

Kiashu,
By your criteria, no government ever does anything, they just pass bills, issue directives on pieces of paper or speak words.
Last year the NAB made a profit of $AUD 4 billion, mind you, they didn't do anything to earn that, they just made loans shuffled electrons and pieces of paper. I guess the people they did hire did a lot more than nothing!
What happened to those real workers that used to lean on shovels and dig holes at the side of the road, or peasant farmers that hand dig and plant fields; replaced by bludgers pressing a few buttons or typing instructions on a key-board. Can't understand why our standard of living is higher than most African countries, where fewer can read pieces of paper.

Last year the NAB made a profit of $AUD 4 billion, mind you, they didn't do anything to earn that, they just made loans shuffled electrons and pieces of paper. I guess the people they did hire did a lot more than nothing!

Absolutely. But their currency arbitrage dealers lost $400 million, thus doing worse than nothing. I offered to improve on that, but they weren't interested.

Likewise, by doing nothing, Rudd has improved on Howard. But we're still not very interested.

By your criteria, no government ever does anything, they just pass bills, issue directives on pieces of paper or speak words.

Not at all. Making legislation or regulation to prohibit, discourage, encourage or mandate certain behaviour is action. Reducing taxes or spending revenue to subsidise what they want to encourage, or taxing and tariffing what they want to discourage, that also is action.

Signing treaties and commissioning studies and writing dates on calendars is not actually doing anything. It's just a vague promise to maybe do something sometime in the future, perhaps if nothing else comes up, maybe, I s'pose.

Our standard of living is high for two reasons: cheap fossil fuels, and cheap Third World labour.

Cheap fossil fuels let us have machinery run cheaply, which lets us produce a lot of food and raw materials cheaply - the $1 loaf of bread, the $2.50 slab of steak, the 10c brick. Cheap Third World labour lets us have cheap manufactured goods - the $5 t-shirt, the $20 pair of jeans, the $500 computer, the $50 DVD player. Because fossil fuels and Third World labour are cheap, our minimum wage goes a long way.

Give us $500/bbl oil, $1,500/tonne coal, and Chinese working for $150 a day instead of $150/month, and our minimum wage starts looking pretty crappy - even the accountant on $100,000 will have to start making some choices.

Our wealth has little or nothing to do with the amount of words we print on paper or speak.