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95 comments on Jeremy Leggett discusses the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security
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95 comments on Jeremy Leggett discusses the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security
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Unfortunately, clean energy technologies -- wind, active solar, and nuclear -- yield electric energy, which does not solve the liquid fuels problem needed for moving tractors/combines, heavy trucks, trains, and ships, nor does it help with home heating much.
Furthermore, ample oil supplies are needed to maintain the highways (road bed and surface repair, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, bridge repair, and snow and ice removal). Without the highways, the power grid will fail, and then virtually nothing modern or mechanical works.
Without the power grid, the electric economy will fail. In addition, the electric economy will cost trillions of dollars/Euros in investment (the credit crunch is permanent due to Peak Oil), use much fossil fuels at a time when they are dwindling, and would take 20 years in research and development, planning, and implementation.
Before embarking on a plan to rapidly implement a trillion dollar/Euro economy, it would be wise to study the feasibility of the electric economy. At the same time, it is wise to begin discussing Peak Oil impacts.
Electric transportation is completely feasible for a large enough portion of the transportation sector (small cars, electric light rail, etc.). By switching these to electric as soon as possible, we can free up enough fuel, for decades, to power tractors, trucks, etc. while we work on alternatives for them.
Prove it! Wasting rapidly depleting resources on faith-based assertions is not likely to be a sucessful tactic.
Also I am dubious that Government will heed the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security since the members of the group expect to profit at the expense of others from a switch away from fossil fuels - many such groups are lobbying Parliament the whole time so this also may be an unsuccessful faith based tactic.
Since peak oil is an 'affordable-flows-for-transport' problem, not a 'profitable reserves' problem IMO any education of the Government should start on that basis and to be effective the education should come from people without a profits 'axe to grind'.
It is not clear to me how solar thermal panels or windmills, as examples, can adequately solve a liquid fuels problem - to get the Government to take notice we will have to show, and prove, that there is actually an energy problem and that there is an adequate affordable solution. At the moment I don't think anybody can do this.
So what do you suggest?
The alternative would seem to be a mass die-off, perhaps you feel that we should just be happy about that.
What I have concluded after exhaustive analysis of scientific studies is that the electric economy will hasten die off and take away attention, energy, and investment away from PREPARING FOR PEAK OIL.
Since your 'exhaustive analysis' appears to exist solely in your head, it's relevance to the present discussion is limited to your own perceptions.
No, it is readily available online, but I am not allowed to reference my work here, or else the editors delete my comments.
Yeah, that does not surprise me too much. I have vague recollections of your having repeatedly presented some fairly tangled mass of prose, with the data points connected tenuously and based upon unjustified assumptions.
I am sure that in your own mind you feel that you have 'proven' your thesis, and perhaps you will forgive the rest of us if we remain unpersuaded, and are likely to remain so no matter how many times you re-present your assertion that society cannot run without fossil fuels in the same ball-park as at present.
EDIT: Re-reading this, it is rather ungracious. You have made an effort to make an analysis, and I respect that, even if I do not think that the conclusions that you have drawn are solidly based and feel the work to be deficient, from what I have seen.
At least you could read it before making insulting comments. And how is it that if you google -- peak oil impacts -- my research comes up first out of over a million hits, and on the first page for -- peak oil alternatives ???
Not easy, without a reference. And I believe I have read it in the past, as as you say you have presented it many times here in the past.
However, I give you full credit for having carried out an analysis, even though I may disagree with it, and feel that your position is much more respectable than I had previously been led to believe, with statements without an analysis of any kind, as far as I could recall.
My comments should not be taken as insulting, merely as a disagreement with yourself on the inevitability of your conclusions, and my comments refer to your arguments, not yourself.
Well I just scanned it and I think Cliffs analysis is a reasonable as say ... Kunstlers or Heinbergs. I don't know that anyones predictions can be claimed to be the only possible version of the future and your constant assertions about electric cars is probably less likely than Cliffs conclusions about massive economic and social disruption. Current events would tend to point more toward the doomer position than "magical green all electric utopia" you believe is coming.
I don't believe I have ever said that electric cars will certainly rescue us all, as you seem to be saying.
When the subject crops up I refer to the4 present state of play and how much power they use, I do not prescribe how much of present use they will be able to provide, as that also depends on other factors such as economics.
My objection is not to the thesis that the grid may break down, but to the assertion of it's inevitability poorly supported by analysis.
Dave I have not heard cjwirth speak in fullness and would like, even if he be running mad in some electrifying manner, see such madness with mine own eyes; that, than staggering on, be blinded by that 'we' of yours.
Please note that the 'we' referred to those who had commented up to that point in time.
To examine his claims for yourself, go here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
If you open up the report, you will see that most of it is uncontentious stuff - and the grammar has improved since the last time I looked at what he had to say.
Much of it is simple adaptions of what others have said on this site.
However, when you get to the part where he branches off on his own, on the non-fungibility of energy resources, you can see that one of his primary references is to a report from 1980, fer chrissakes:
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11771&page=R1
The 'Exhaustive analysis' he talks of is based on entirely outdated information, since, for instance, battery technology has improved in many respects by something like 8% a year for many years.
The foundation on which he builds his absolute claims for the inability to manage without a huge input of fossil fuels is in fact far from exhaustive, but an incredibly skimpy couple of paragraphs, and the referencs so dated that one can perhaps conclude that the data has been cherry-picked to find something or the other which would give some cover to the assertions made.
If you want to give credence to this, fine.
I do not intend to waste any more time on extreme claims with such flimsy backing that in my view they destroy any credibility.
Dave,
Don't much care for censorship which was the point of my comment. I also think that inflammatory remarks are no argument.
On the subject of die-off, which you bring up, maybe it has begun. I won't say why I say that it may have begun, as, following the dictum you have set up, it might compel me to cite chapter and verse, or risk verbal abuse. Besides, I am at heart a very lazy bugger and wouldn't feel like it.
I don't suppose I could say why I think so and have you run your butt off proving me wrong? You know, present a theory and have you knock it down?
While I am at it maybe I could present the theory that the electrical system will fail due to the decrease of net energy in the system, as provided by fossil fuel, over time.
My objection is not to the thesis that the grid may break down, but to the assertion of it's inevitability poorly supported by analysis.
Hi Dave,
The report is a policy analysis of the most reliable and up-to-date scientific and government studies (National Academy of Engineering, National Academy of Sciences, Energy Watch Group [funded by the German Parliament], U.S. General Accountability Office, Union of Concerned Scientists [the latest battery technology there], Congressional Research Service, World Energy Council, Canadian National Energy Board, Joint Research Centre of the European Union, and many scientific studies that are published on TOD).
The material dealing with the multitude of energy inputs for alternatives and oil production is original, in that no one else has discussed all inputs previously. This explains why oil depletion will occur rapidly and why alternatives will not be able to replace declining oil supplies.
The claims are not extreme, but rather the Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) comes to the same conclusion in a report, PEAK OIL COULD TRIGGER MELTDOWN OF SOCIETY, that will be released next week:
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482
I've had dozens of comments about how well the report is written, and only one to the contrary -- yours. I've had numerous positive comments from TOD members, including some from TOD editors.
The report was published by Commodityonline.com and Atlanticfreepress.com
Cheers,
Cliff Wirth
I would agree that the report is well written, as I have said, and in it's early stages uncontentious.
Since I was not given links to it, I fell back upon possibly faulty memory of when the argument had been presented before - you have since explained why the links were absent - if I am not told I don't know.
I agree that society may break down due to peak oil.
What I object to is your assertions as to it's inevitability, supported in the case of the fungibility of energy by grossly out of date references, and a very skimpy covering of the subject rather than the 'exhaustive analysis' you claim.
I feel your analysis is not strong enough to support the degree of certainty with which you declare it's inevitability, and prefer an approach which itemises forces for and against a particular result and looks for factors which may falsify them.
What got my goat though were the claims of 'exhaustive analysis' without references or links, and you have since explained that that was as you were not allowed to by the editors, which is fair enough.
Factually you are wrong about the dates of references, as most are within 2 years, a few go back to 2004, but in any case I use the most up-to-date. The report is exhaustive in reviewing all relevant scientific/credible studies, and reporting on the most recent and credible. In some cases, there are no references, as the findings are original.
As I said, what I really objected to were your statements that you had extensive analyses of the problem, without a link.
You have since explained why that was the case, due to editorial limitations, but I was hardly to know that until informed of this.
On the case in point, the section which seems entirely unsupported is the one of Energy Non-Fungibility pg 38 and on.
This is simply a series of assertions without any foundation at all for the conclusions you seek to draw.
For instance, you mention difficulty in financing projects - however there is wide variability in the availability of funds, with countries like China being able currently to have a near $300 billion a year new infrastructure investment without moving into substantial budget deficit.
You also choose to highlight Bouldings critique of 'Energy in Transition 1985-1010', which is a 1982 report.
It may, of course be the case that a transition may not be possible, but asserting this is not the same as proving it, and your confidence in the absolute certainty of your conclusions is no guarantee of their correctness.
On this critical section what you present can in no sense be considered as the 'exhaustive analysis' which you represent it to be.
It is a couple of pages of assumptions.
Prove to the UK Government we are actually at peak oil and that there isn't sufficient investment going on. So far as I can tell they don't even admit that the North Sea has peaked!
Prove that adequate alternatives can be made if we are at peak. I don't think the Government wants to know unless you can actually give proof since they are not in the habit of panicing the public without good reason.
Don't assume that there is actually a viable alternative to Fossil Fuels.
So, if your conclusion is that there is no viable alternative to fossil fuel, what then?
And, in those circumstances, how could any investment be 'adequate'?
I fail to see the point of your argument.
Time to prepare for Peak Oil, and the end of oil.
http://drmills.wiki-site.com/index.php/Peak_Oil_Preparation
In PEAK OIL COULD TRIGGER MELTDOWN OF SOCIETY, it is interesting to note what the Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) concludes about alternative energies:
>>>> "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame." <<<<<
http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482
Davemart - It seems like you are trying to work up a fresh batch of denial.
You have read here long enough to understand the thinking yet you want to re-hash it all again. Why?
To find a crack in the logic? A glimmer of hope for BAU?
...or are you just looking for a good aerobic workout for your digits?
What has BAU got to do with it?
The discussion was on whether society could run on electric without near-present levels of fossil fuel inputs.
Many results could lead to society continuing to function without it being near BAU.
Still, it is pretty much a waste of time debating since many here seem to feel that by a process of invincible logic they have determined for certain what is going to occur, and that all that they need to do is convert the unbelievers.
Personally, I think how things will pan out depends on a whole mess of political, economic and technological factors, the vast majority of which I am not an expert in and in many of them, notably the technological, no-one knows what will happen as the research is not completed - that is why they are researching it.
If it comforts you to feel that you have the inside skinny on destiny, bully for you.
None of us know what will happen but many of the possible "solutions" have been extensively explored here and to keep holding up any of them or even all of them as the answer only serves to distract from what seems to be a general consensus that we need to power down to some level.
None talk about power all the way down to zero but power down to some lower level we must.
We can't ramp up anything and power down at the same time.
Or I should say if we, the rich countries, ramp up then the developing countries, the majority, will have to power down 10X more to compensate.
I for one am not ok with that and I am pretty sure they will not be either.
Quite. It is entirely incorrect to describe me as having some neurotic attachment to BAU, as it is perfectly clear that this is impossible given peak oil, which I entirely accept.
However, it is equally erroneous to imagine that we know exactly what our circumstances will be.
Debate for me follows fairly classical lines, and meta-arguments which go from a general to the particular, such as 'this society is unsustainable', are entirely irrelevant to me.
I want to know what will break down, when, and what would falsify the prediction.
For instance, in the present debate, if someone presents the thesis that society cannot function at all in the absence of fossil fuels, and that this is not substitutable, I want to know which bits don't work, how much of total energy use they constitute.
It was argued on this forum, in my view successfully, that heavy agricultural equipment could not be successfully substituted by electricity, at any rate until decent zinc batteries are developed, but this is a fairly small part of total use and the location is ideal for the use of biofuels which would use up less of the crop than draft animals.
In any case, many here argue that localised agriculture will lead to less need for the largest machines.
On a more general level, it is argued sometimes that finances will preclude just about everything.
Well, debt and credit are fundamentally social constructs, and much less deep than physical limits, and in fact many societies have gone through a financial re-set and been extremely productive afterwards - the bankruptcy of France in the 18th century springs to mind.
It did not noticeably handicap them in fighting the whole of Europe shortly afterwards.
EROI arguments may have more weight, but thin film solar is pretty damn good, and so is nuclear if you don't assume that they are going to do it in as silly a way as can be conceived for the purposes of arguing against it.
Incidentally, I am not essentially opposed to the idea that the grid in many countries may fail - in times of social unrest and poverty, for instance, the distributed nature of wind power may mean that all the transmission lines are stolen at a rate which can't be replaced.
It does not seem tome to be possible though to be categorical that the grid will fail, anymore than I can be categorical that it will not.
We live in uncertain times, and it is well to accept that.
False certitudes do not help.
I'd go along with your notion that we will need to use less power, but it is perhaps still possible that we can live relatively well just the same.
And we will still need to generate a great deal of power, and every single one of them has downsides.
Likeliest in my view is very, very severe dislocation indeed, at least in most places in the world.
I haven't yet spotted any absolute technological limits which mean that a good standard of living in, say, 50 years time will not be possible , hopefully for a gradually falling population.
My own view is that getting there is the problem.
Exactly ... I am sure the UK, at least, is at peak oil ... if the world is too then we need viable affordable alternatives ...so, IMO, maybe if you can't show with a very high degree of certainty that there are such viable alternatives then what we do have must not be squandered on faith-based blind alleys.
The first step to getting through Peak Oil is to admit to reality - and one reality is that the UK Government hasn't got magical powers but will do whatever is needed in an attempt to retain what power it has - what is good for them (such as 'economical with the truth') may not be good for you and me!
Xeroid, Again I share your sentiments. Why do we have this blind faith that technology will save us. It will only save us if enough people can get rich out of the process of saving us. Employment is legalised exploitation, where a company makes a profit by paying its workers the minimum amount it can get away with to retain the skills necessary to sustain the business. If people demand more than an employer is prepared to pay, then the company will eventually relocate to a lower cost labour source. There is no sentiment to the overall well being of the people or the host nation, James Dyson is a classical example of many. Whether we are saved by "technology" will be a combination of confidence of a return on investment by those with cash, and the technology itself not only being sustainable but affordable to the public at large.
The cost and availability of energy will be a key factor in all of these conditions being met. As you say, we have not even reached the point where those in power have acknowledged (in public at least) that there is an energy problem yet.
The government appears to have the mentality is that finance is the primary driver of the economy, not energy supply. Energy can be bought with money! At the moment the government is finding money hand over fist for bank rescue packages, and now possibly tax cuts. It seems to me they are solving the problem using the method that caused it in the first place.
A pessimist is an optimist who is aware of the facts!
Describing a problem does not necessarily require providing a solution. Frankly, I do not see how it is feasible to avert a severe outcome to the fast approaching phenomena of peak oil. Burying our heads in the sands of denial will only make the situation worse. Some problems do not have a solution, and bad things happen. The question is how bad will it be. The answer will vary from one individual and group to another, but the realists will will likely be less overwhelmed than will be those who cling to the fantasy of a hero rushing to the rescue or some miracle technofix that will power our microwaves into the distant future. Insofar as a mass die-off is concerned, our world will almost certainly have a smaller population in the coming decades. The only question is how will it shrink.
Hi Xeroid,
Your concerns are supported by The Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) concludes about alternative energies:
>>>> "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame." <<<<<
http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482
Hi xeroid,
IMHO it will be most effective to get existing organised lobbying, for example if say Age Concern picked up on this it already has a well established PR machine with celebrities, acess to the press...
You said "to be effective the education should come from people without a profits 'axe to grind'", as far as i am concerned the more people and organisations that push for an answer the quicker the politicians will pick up on it.
With the new US administration taking a higher profile on energy (e.g. Rumours circulating that Governor Schwarzenegger could be offered the energy secretary post in Obama administration) now would be a good time to push in the UK.
CJWirth,
this is becoming my most serious concern given the way things are unfolding with the credit crunch PO foretaste -namely that when cheap liquid fuels start to decline (lets just assume say post 2012 for arguments sake) we go into the mother of all recessions/depressions at which point there is AMPLE surplus electrical power as industry grinds to a halt and thus NO PERCEIVED NEED for windmills, PV, Nuclear. In addition due to this overabundance electrical power remains relatively cheap and since we will probably be facing a 2nd credit crunch investment cash is not there anyway...
Its only when we start to see an Natural Gas/LNG/Coal supply decline -i.e. electrical feedstock decline- that electrical prices go up rapidly. A shift to PHEVs will not do it on the demand side quickly enough as replacement in the crunched/depressed world will take decades...
Thoughts?
Nick.
NOUTRAM,
The problem is that when there is surplus electric power due to depression and closing of plazas, offices, and factories there is lingering alternative/renewable solution ideology.
Most people have received either formal education or media education that has repeatedly told them that solar/wind/renewable energy will save us in the end. Since the 1970s, professors have pounded this message into their students. This is a deep and pervasive belief around the world, and it will last a long time. Also, you can't see surplus electric power, so it will get little attention.
Politicians basically respond do what the public wants. So we can expect to see public works jobs to create wind turbines and solar panels.
That my depend to a certain extent on capital markets which may have shrunk back to the local if most of the malls,plazaa car makers and other industries have disappeared. This could limit the scale of any alternative power production to local demonstration projects, which never achieve the scale necessary to support heavy industries like steel making and chemical manufacture.
cjwirth,
I think that you're correct to point out that we do things with petroleum besides burn it for fuel. However, its not as if oil is just going to disappear once production starts to decline. Lets assume that oil production drops off at a similar rate to which it has risen (as Hubbert's model predicts). If oil peaks in 2010 and it takes 20 years and trillions of dollars to make the necessary upgrades to the electrical grid, the world will still be producing as it did in 1990.
Also, why do you think these upgrades will cost trillions? Estimates for revamping the U.S. gird currently stand at $100 billion over 10 years. Even if you assume this will quadruple due to rising prices, $40 billion a year is still very manageable. Is the European grid in that bad of shape?
Also, why exactly will upgrading the electrical grid hasten the "die-off"? Why doesn't that count as preparing?
In addition, while paved roads are certainly superior, cars and trucks can (and do) travel on unpaved surfaces all the time, even with very heavy loads. I don't know why these roads couldn't work to keep the power grid operational.
With one road washout, one land slide, one big snow, or one bridge out, the whole section of many kilometers of road is out. Heavy trucks do not fare well on rough roads. Watch how trucks slow to a virtual stop for speed bumps/topes -- because they don't handle rough stuff well at all.
How long do unpaved surfaces stay flat unless groomed and fixed often. One big rain storm and there it goes.
And about those trillions: millions of solar panels/wind turbines, millions of cars/trucks/tractors/combines/trains/trams, thousands of service stations, millions of transformers, lots of cable, thousands of pylons, the energy for manufacturing all of this, the transport, workers salaries, maintenance, repair, offices, factories built etc, and don't forget inflation will double and triple and 10x prices of today.
About die off, doing the above will use up/waste oil and natural gas faster, and take attention, time, and investment away from preparations for Peak Oil. Better to use the oil we have to prepare for when we don't have any.
I wasn't trying to say that unpaved roads are better than paved roads. Snow, landslides, and everything you mentioned will make unpaved roads less reliable and harder to maintain. But they will still be maintainable. Snow, landslides etc. have existed for a long time, and people to build and maintain roads long before gasoline powered vehicles. Either way, this sort of scenario is not imminent.
I see now that you weren't just talking about the electrical grid itself, but all portions of the energy generation and transportation system. All told, this will cost trillions. But I still don't understand why this will be impossible. The world currently spends trillions of dollars on cars, coal-powered electrical plants, and all of the stuff you mentioned. Costs developing transportation and sources of electricity that operate without fossil fuels will probably cost more than contemporary equivalents, but not an order of magnitude higher. We're not starting to build all this stuff from scratch.
Also, you keep talking about oil as if its just going to disappear. Yes, petroleum will be much more expensive in the future and we have to change the way we live. We won't be as materially rich as we are now. I just don't see why things would just stop after peak oil. In the U.S., it would take $300 or $400 dollar a barrel oil to push our gas prices into the realm of what Europeans pay already. Sure, the price will probably go much higher at some point in the future, but my point is that we can still function as a society while oil is that expensive, and the rise in prices should help make it easier to change the way we live.
Hi ssn139,
It is inevitable that the highways will collapse. The states won't have funds to pay workers and buy oil to maintain them, as they have more important priorities -- keeping people alive with heating oil in hospitals and state institutions. If people can't get to the job (due to closed gas stations) and they are not paid, they don't get to the job to fix the higways.
When a bridge goes out, there will be no girder to replace it, as the company that makes them will go bankrupt, and other bridges will be out, and a road washout, and the highways may be dangerous from bandits, and few police to patrol the roads, some workers will not want to go long distance for fear of never making it home.
Oil will not disappear fast, but will become very expensive fast -- look at the fast rise to $150 oil even before production begins to decline. Demand for oil is increasing, despite the credit crunch.
The electric economy will have to be developed as the rest of the economy continues along the same path. It is an add on.