![]() | DrumBeat: November 13, 2008 | The Oil Drum | The 2008 IEA WEO - The World Energy Model and Energy Demand | ![]() |
161 comments on The 2008 IEA WEO - The Oil Drum Initial Review (#1 in a Series)
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161 comments on The 2008 IEA WEO - The Oil Drum Initial Review (#1 in a Series)
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This is very insightful. I'm a PO believer. Most people here are too. But the fact of the matter is that we are tiny percentage. My business partner thinks oil company profits are totally obscene. The "Photo of the Day" in my local paper is a picture of a gas station sign advertising the first sub $2/gal price here in town for about as long as anyone can remember. Nowhere is this IEA report mentioned.
My totally unscientific survey suggests to me that 90% of the country thinks that oil problems are over -- afterall, gas is only $2 now. 8% don't really care because they either don't drive or are so rich that price is irrelevant. 1% are one or both of perpetually stoned/psychotic and are simply not capable of caring. Of the remaining 1%, a few are POers concerned for the future, a few are POers hoping hoping for calamity due to religious beliefs, environmental notions, and/or a form of self-directed hatred (where self=nation) or anger toward the "rich bastard oil moguls who deserve to be taken down a few notches." A few simply defy categorization.
Anyway, in my not so humble, but not so valuable or nationally voluble opinion, we won't see any recognition of PO till gas approaches $4/gal again, or it isn't available in sufficient quantities. Even for me, with gas this cheap, I've stopped hypermiling, ride my motorcycle far less, and think very little about running out for an errand. This of course, does not bode well for the future as my behaviors are certainly compounded by millions.
I'm not of the opinion as inferred in one of the comments above that its all down hill from here and think we will have one last surge before the 'Big Event'.
My reason is simply this -and reflects your comment- the vast majority of people DO NOT BELIEVE IN PO.
Only when there is a 'mass recognition event' will it be game over IMO.
So my advice to you would be wait around 12 months and buy as many PO-related downbeaten stocks as you can afford and sit back and wait till 2014 at which point you will probably be glad that you where one of that tiny % of believers way back in 2008...
Nick.
I have been buying energy and energy shipping stocks, but I fear that it might not work out as I intend. There is so much anger directed toward energy companies by such a large portion of the public, that I wonder if we won't see nationalization either directly, or through onerous tax burdens that destroy any profitability. For an example, look at how Canada has treated its canroys in the last couple years. Two years ago it arbitrarily changed the tax structure after explicitly promising not to, which caused the value of canroys to drop about a third. This year, Alberta decided it wants more royalties, again causing damage to share prices. Nobody sees these things as issues however, because, in the minds of many, oil companies are evil and deserve punishment.
Anyway, I keep buying in, but without the same conviction I used to have that I will see a good payoff in 5-10 years. I used to worry about flow rates and reserves and such, but I'm coming to realize that the largest risk energy companies face is government and public sentiment -- something perhaps even more fickle than mother nature's underground world.