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337 comments on DrumBeat: November 8, 2008
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337 comments on DrumBeat: November 8, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
If they do something like
d2Debt/dt2 = K - c*Debt
which shows Debt accelerating until it crosses some artificial limit, it will start oscillating, as the solution to this equation is a phased sin/cos equation.
Why this would happen, I don't know, but it is mathematically one way it would start oscillating.
I would think the debt would crash or reset before oscillating.
I would think that oscillating is actually the norm, and we will see much more of that before we see a crash or reset.
Don in Maine
The yearly deficit seems to oscillate a bit but the accumulated debt keeps on increasing.
Would not an oscillation in debt require a feedback loop and a gain of greater than one, as in classical control theory?
I know there are other theoretical modes that can drive oscillatory behavior, but I can't see what would drive a debt oscillation other than such a feedback loop consisting of changes in interest rate, regulation, and behavior. Likely any such oscillation would be on a very long scale -- to the tune of decades. Perhaps there is short-duration cycle overlaid upon a much larger generational cycle?
I am sure that there have been attempts to model economic theory in terms of overdamped and underdamped systems, with various input functions and signal paths, but the complexity would likely be intractable. A discrete simulation with enough interconnected but independently acting entities might be viable.
I imagine that social mores and emotional readings like "consumer confidence" play into any such mechanism, but maybe those could be quantified in some way as well.
You mean something like this:
http://www.thepiggybanker.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/interest_rate_c...
I think we had discussed, or at least mentioned, the L-V equation a while back, and I think it applies. Depending on the parameters, it can assume a nearly constant steady state, oscillate (almost- but not-quite- sinusoidally), oscillate wildly, or crash.
Just substitute fossil fuel for "prey" and the financial system for "predator".