158 comments on DrumBeat: November 9, 2008
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158 comments on DrumBeat: November 9, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Obama Positions Himself to Quickly Reverse Bush Actions on Environmental, Social Issues
I hope President Obama can also reverse the denialist stance in the Climate Change Science program as well. Because of the Bush Administration, more than 5 years have been wasted. Even as the evidence has become more certain and the need for basic structural changes more urgent, the CCSP has slowly issued a series of reports which present a picture that implies there's no big problems to worry about. Without truthful information from the government sponsored scientific community, there's little way that he can make the basic policy shifts required.
I contributed to two rounds of this process. The latest one, assessing the probability of abrupt change, still contains basic errors, IMHO, although they did add in a graph from a report which shows how wrong they are. Look at Box 4.1. Figure 1, page 338 in the latest draft of Chapter 4 of SAP 3.4 (PDF warning), which compares modeled with actual Arctic sea-ice decline. With regards to sea-ice, the models are woefully wrong, yet the risk assessment is based on the projections from these models. If the model builders can't get it right, how can the results from the models be considered representative of the Earth's future climate?
E. Swanson
I'm keen to find out how the models play out with a lot of open water in the Arctic. The water reflects less, but there should be more moisture in the air, hence more snow in the surrounding land. I posted a question on this to a realclimate thread but didn't get past the moderator.
I've offered similar comments before. It's well known that open water in the Arctic Ocean during winter is the source of much of the moisture and heating for the atmosphere above. For the time being, the areas of open water are covered rather rapidly, once the winter cold returns, but, as warming can be expected to continue, I would expect to see the area of open water to grow larger and to last longer into the winter months. I don't think we will experience the Arctic ice free for the entire winter, as that would require a very large thermal storage in the Arctic Ocean in the form of much higher water temperatures. The Great Lakes still freeze and they are much farther south.
E. Swanson
I read that yesterday, it's like a dream come true!
A related improvement to the Cal emissions and fuel economy rules would be to immediately resolve regulatory differences between Japanese, EU, and US safety and emissions regulations. In a tighter car market, fewer models can be supported, and there is vast inefficiency in having incompatible models in different markets. Of course it makes no sense for GM to sell 3 cars in 3 divisions that are essentially identical either, but that's going away too I suspect.
High-efficiency diesel, even if it doesn't quite meet the US pollution goals YET, should be allowed. The improvement in mileage for small trucks and cars would be significant, and with a multi-year emission-improvement plan would provide impetus for engine innovation.
Safety regulations should match as well. While the US may be leading in this regard, it should be possible to reset expectations to have affordable but adequate safety for all vehicles in all markets. It's silly to have some locales approving golf carts on low-speed streets and bicycles and motorcyles on most roads yet a Japanese hybrid minivan isn't acceptable.
Relaxing barriers to dual-fuel/multi-fuel vehicles should be considered as well. CNG diesel makes pretty good sense, but to my knowledge there is no such vehicle on the market today, because only CNG-only vehicles get the tax breaks.
One of the easiest "fixes" is to redo CAFE standards/law and remove the "two fleet" rule.
"Nor would it have to repeal the CAFE rules that are now a sacred cow. It would simply have to allow auto makers to meet the fuel economy standards with any mix of autos made in domestic or overseas factories.
Under the nonsensical "two fleet" rule that now applies, manufacturers meet the standards separately with their "domestically" and "nondomestically" produced fleets. What does this have to do with making sure U.S. consumers get good mileage? Nothing. It's a naked handout to the UAW at the expense of the companies and their customers."
The entire article can be found here. It is a free read.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122584326266699163.html
Link - Not Found.
Found the article in another blog.
I see no mention of the second
half of the equation - the buyer.
Just remove the "out" at the end of the link. It then works.
Link - Not Found.
Found the article in another blog.
I see no mention of the second
half of the equation - the buyer.
Thanks Ammond.
The highlighted hyperlink is truncated in my browser - I didn't even look at the URL. I just right clicked to a new window.
Yup,incentives for the buyer are no where to be found :(
I could only support new diesel applications if we can save a comparable volume of diesel fuel from other apllications. The reason is that the relative amount of diesel versus gasoline (and other distillates) is largely invariant (i.e. we can't change it much), and diesel is already in relative scarity. So while diesel engines are thermodynamically more efficientl than say gasoline engines, overall the relative consumption of the two fuel types cannot vary by much. Even without created new diesel demand in the car market, demand reduction for diesel is more important for the overall system balaance than demand reduction for gasoline.
Now, if we can aggressively reduce diesel demand, by such actions as improving trucking aerodynamics, electrifying trains, producing hybrid construction equipment, and buses etc, then perhaps we can free up enough diesel to pursue your solution.
PE Obama needs to also reverse some of his own campaign promises: e.g, to take troops out of Iraq and send them to Afghanistan. Half great, half terrible.
And his recent rhetoric on Iran completely disregards the NIE report -- Iran dropped its work on nuclear weapons several years ago. And the NPT grants them the right to pursue nuclear power.
If Obama remains within the embrace of the Pentagon and intelligence agencies and their associated corporate partners, it guarantees disaster going forward.
of course his rhetoric is against reality. he like most us politicians are beholden to pro isrial groups due to the large amounts of cash(ironically that cash comes from the 4 billion annually we give to the state of isrial) and influence they have in the lobbying realm. this is the main reason why we for a long while have been going after states said country views as evil.
The problem of course is risk management. As President he has to listen to national intelligence departments. He can't afford to say if things go to hell in a hand basket ... "Oh yes, I got that idea off TOD".
The pace of events in Afghanistan has already outstripped campaign rhetoric. Everyone in Afghanistan wants to negotiate. Everyone is sick of the war. And Afghanistan seems to function best when no one tries to establish central power over its multifarous peoples, and the current stalement is now recognized as unbreakable.
As awful as the Taliban is, it has been successfully infiltrating the government for years via its Senate, which is a cabal of bought-off warlords whose loyalties are drifting away from Karzai. If the Taliban was to become too strong the warlords probably would rebel against it too. No one accepts the right of Kabul to rule, and the only thing keeping the war going in its current form is the West's insistence that there be a Western-style government in Kabul ruling over a fictional nation-state.
So now the British and the Europeans are beginning to give in to the ugly reality, and the US can't hold the country by itself. I guess the war ends when we find a way to pretend that we've won, just like in Iraq.
I think negotiating with the Taliban means we have to give up on the fantasy of making Osama Bin-Laden pay. As sensible as it might be, I don't the the country is ready either emotionally or politically for such a move.
I am in full agreement with you. I hope you take advantage to Change.gov to let him know your thoughts. If we change our foreign policy sufficiently along the direction you would like, I would need to trade in my Nom-de-guerre.
He's elitist!! He believes in climate change! Noooooo.
ROFL, GObama! :D Finally a man with some good ideas.