I'm keen to find out how the models play out with a lot of open water in the Arctic. The water reflects less, but there should be more moisture in the air, hence more snow in the surrounding land. I posted a question on this to a realclimate thread but didn't get past the moderator.

I've offered similar comments before. It's well known that open water in the Arctic Ocean during winter is the source of much of the moisture and heating for the atmosphere above. For the time being, the areas of open water are covered rather rapidly, once the winter cold returns, but, as warming can be expected to continue, I would expect to see the area of open water to grow larger and to last longer into the winter months. I don't think we will experience the Arctic ice free for the entire winter, as that would require a very large thermal storage in the Arctic Ocean in the form of much higher water temperatures. The Great Lakes still freeze and they are much farther south.

E. Swanson