No disagreement from me.

For some reason I still try. I suppose it's because I'd rather give it my best shot, even if the odds are ridiculously slim. And maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Some may see my lack of belief in the likelihood of success as a great disadvantage. But this is not necessarily the case. Because I feel like I have nothing really to loose and don't expect to win, I am not upset by my own failures.

Think of a football team going for the hail mary pass. Nobody expects it to work, but they give it a shot anyways and, behold, sometimes it pays off.

I can't decide whether this is hokum or on target. While generally speaking most would agree that people's beliefs tend to settle down as they age, many external factors intervene - economic depression causing people to adopt very thrifty, cost-conscious habits, even when their objective situation does not encourage let alone require it, for example my mother; Warren Buffet. People are capable of change at many stages of life, even in basic ways (huge literature on religious conversion, for example).

On what basis did you choose 25 as the inflection point? I'd say that's a construct of our extended adolescence in western industrial societies. I'd put the inflection point for most of humanity now and in the preindustrial period much nearer age of puberty.

I think we 're dealing here with the costs of information processing, the likelihood that we're wired to stop assessing major alternatives as we pass puberty. But we're capable of change; isn't that our hope and potential?

Chimp - You make a very good case for offing everyone over 25 unless of course they can prove they have accepted the fact that "things are not right" prior to becoming 25.

What church did you say you were with?

I disagree with a magic number of 25. (leading off with "as you no doubt know" is a dead giveaway). It is a continuum.

Recent studies have shown that there is considerable plasticity in the brain well into the 70s and 80s.

Your final paragraph is more on point, IMO. The issue is not the capacity for change but the desire or willingness to change. That is another matter entirely and is culturally and emotionally based not physiological. Since I passed 25, many years ago I have changed many times based on new information and relationships and continue to do so.

That said, your guesstimate of those who WANT to understand, and thus change, seems about right, unfortunately.

My understanding is that the age is closer to 35. I remember form a linguistics class I took that for this reason it is much harder for most people to learn languages after that age.

Matt

In the "hail mary pass" situation, the unspoken assumption is there are people downfield who actually want to catch the ball. In the situation at hand, how many people truly WANT to understand how much trouble we're in? Maybe 1 out of 500? 1 out of 1,000?

I'd say you have the odds about right.

Furthermore, most people will tend to get the stuffing knocked out of em' if they attempt to throw the Hail Mary pass (the stuffing being one's inclusive fitness).

At this late stage in the game, it is critical to the survival of you and your loved ones that an extended social network be built and solidified. By going around throwing Hail Marys, however, one risks alienating potential friends, mates, and allies.

Many people are too worried about tomorrow to deal with 'limits to growth'. The stability of their jobs, healthcare, and housing have them on edge. From the average American's perspective, the friend, colleague, or stranger who discusses pessimistic topics like Peak Oil is not fun to be around. These 'pessimists' elicit negative feelings in others, create socially awkward situations, and may even be avoided or shunned. :(

Absurd, sad, but true.

My advice is to keep learning, preparing, and making friends and alliances... and recognize that there are times when you'd be better off keeping your pie-hole shut about the bigger picture - at least until people's brains are similarly focused on the problem (or domain). Trust me, we won't want to be lonely and isolated from our communities when the SHTF.

CAVEAT: None of the above is necessarily relevant to situations in which a person is educating policy makers, decision-makers, community task-forces, government, significant others, immediate family etc.

Edit: Should mention that I'm only 25, so my situation may be different than others here. I would probably have a different outlook/strategy if I was in my 40's, 50's, or 60's.

I changed my belief system totally in my mid-thirties. It was in response to a new set of circumstances. I distinctly recall the struggle to let go of old beliefs and the firm decision to follow the evidence no matter where it led, no matter how scary. Hardly any of my peers were able to do this and remain stuck in their old belief systems.

It's called the 5% rule...and most of the 5% out there, know they are one. The other 95% are sheeple that don't have a clue, and are almost never going to get one. The age of 25 makes no difference, one way or the other. It's simply Biology. All men ( and women) are NOT created equal. Look around, beyond the trappings of money, or the artificial status given by a college degree. Being able to make money, or paying an institution for that piece of paper to hang on your wall that says "I'm smart" to somebody passing by, is by no means, any indication as to whether or not you will survive what is ahead. I have had the opportunity to brush up against many a Phd. socially, as well as the very wealthy, and in all honesty, if I had to depend on most of them for help to survive, I'd be dead in no time at all. The common sense of a potato bug is about all they were good for. If you have had an opportunity to be around lots of children, as a teacher or coach. You understand this quite well. It's there at a very early age, or it's not.

Basic Biology. With a little social intercourse thrown in for good measure. The 95%, not only need the "Leader" in their lives to fuction, and to have focus, but are lost with without one.