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That's kinda what religion really does in people : it makes them consider more long-term effect. Yes for the wrong reasons ("God will punish you"), but nevertheless.
Unfortunately it's also true that religion is under attack, not because people really think it's dumb, but because they don't want to think about longer term consequences. Quick random sex is supposedly more fun than marriage. Yet the advantages, for the persons involved and society at large of a monogamous marriage can scarcely be overstated. Family, kids, stability, the need to care for others, ...
Everything that stands in the way of quick immediate satisfaction gets blasted. Whether it's capitalism, religion or peak oil. Once people get really confronted with global warming policies, they too will be blasted. All "conservation" efforts have in reality resulted in no reduction or even an increase in energy use. This is not an accident.
In response to the last question on the list, sadly, no.
The effect of hope and optimism on fertility is well established by now. The current crises, once they are fully understood by the public, will result in zero population growth faster than any humane alternative. Until then, the effect of solutions will be quickly countered by the increased population that their announcement will encourage.
A recent example is the euphoria surrounding the U.S. election, leading to an expected baby boom.
In a perfect world, zero population growth would be a virtue, taught in Sunday schools and Madrasahs. But that's not likely anytime soon, so in the meantime 'polymathic forward thinkers' should probably remain in stealth mode.
Fat chance of that! Both the Catholic church an the Madrashas notonly condone but encourage large families overtly. The primary excuse given is one of Gods divine right choose who is born and who is not but the underlying growth paradigm is simply a case of domination by numbers. The intersection of population growth and broader political objectives for that population is an area which increasingly deserves more study.
In these dying days of the Aquarian Age it is still difficult to have dispassionate and detached objective conversation about these issues without classifying people into various ethnic and cultural groups. That of course invites a charge of racist overtones which many of us find distasteful and therefore avoid the subject. Even on this site, population growth is only ever discussed in general terms with out scratching the surface and asking the hard questions like who is breeding, why, and what pressure points does that growth create and how will it be resolved? Linking explosive poulation growth to energy demand should not be too difficult for readers of TOD and yet there is a reluctance to push it too far.
My fear is that the pressure points will be ignored for too long in the name of political correctness and will only be resolved through violent upheavals as the dominant numbers overwhelm or are forced back by other cultural groups. We have alreay seen what this led to last century. Are we condemned to repeat it? I for one would prefer, even at the risk of causing offence, robust and forthright conversation, than allowing the situation to descend into a free for all.
Fertility opportunity hypothesis does not classify people into ethnic and cultural groups, and says nothing about race. Abernethy draws examples from all groups to make the point. It is concerned with relative shifts in expectation caused by changes in environment.
Reversal of population growth in rich western countries since the time of North American peak oil correlates with steadily declining expectation of future affluence by the middle class. The group that formerly consumed the most energy has declined the most, even while immigrant groups have experienced an improvement in their prospects, relative to their former lives, and have more children as a result.
The significant implication of FOH is that western populations will continue to decline in sync with fossil fuel decline, while those populations that don't currently consume a lot of FF will continue to grow until affected by something else, like declining water and food.
But, if we have even a single recalcitrant group, given long enough time, they will overwhelm the efforts of all others. And, of course there are major incentives for it to be YOUR group that has the highest growth rate. As long as religion/culture are sacrosanct this fatal flaw in population control will exist.
Recalcitrant in what way? If you mean being happier, hence more fertile, with less consumption, then a new unhappy/poor equilibrium is quickly reached. If you mean happier while consuming more, that must imply more productive and competitive, and a new unhappy/productive equilibrium is even more quickly reached. Given that our expectations are currently deteriorating, the unhappy/productive condition is unstable and whatever creed is promoting it will lose adherents.
You may be attributing too much to religion. Italy is the home of the RC church, yet has the lowest fertility in the world - because their resource and manufacturing base is declining relative to the rest of Europe.
It is broader than just religion adn takes into account cultural expectations. If the community you live in is dirtpoor adn all your peers are just a poor as you, but the one thing you have in common is large families, then that very sense of community of purpose will mean that you don't give any thought to how you are going to feed the resultant kids. The community will help you becasue thats the way it is. If you are a "sophisticated Italian culturalati" that likes to enjoy the finer things of life and freedom to travel and do as you please, then kids can be a real drag. The one kid you might have may come late in life at which time you can afford to buy in as much help as you need.
The immigrant family that moves in next door however with six kids, Grandma and aunts and uncles are notgoing to be content to remain inside all day. They will play on the street, open up businesses to sell the food they like, speak their own language and not bother with yours, maybe opoen a school and then perhaps invite many of their friends to join them. Before you know it, you are a stranger in your own neighbourhood, all because of numbers. Political power must surely follow.
EDIT: We have just seen in the US election how race can affect the political process. The voter turnout of blacks was significantly increased becasue of the candidates race. This marks a very big turning point for American culture as it embraces black culture in a way which shows that it is now a mainstream force.
In the future upcoming survival earth it will be awfully hard for just one person..or say one and his wife(some like 'partner' but its still wife to me)...hard as hell for just two to work a substience lifestyle.
And on the other side of that once more it will behoove farmers (if any left) to have several children. Must repopulate the earth,,and not destroy it will overpopulation. And natural selection as well as a lower natural age will likely take care of much of this.
We must look to the future as this one is shot to hell.
Or course cornucopians will disagree,,even with all the evidence in front of them.
So what is best? Have about two children. Teach them the skillsets to live in what may be the future.
Why is it I wonder that liberals tend to give illegal immigrants, and legal ones for that matter the full rights of uncontrolled births yet whine constantly about the rest of us? Their rights of many large families is no less than the rightsd the citizens of this country should enjoy.
I will garner many negatives numbers on this post. I am used to it.
Airdale
My man, you really need to view the 'Crash Course' and learn about exponential growth curve/plots. Trying to change the paradigm at this time is totally fruitless.
Why do folks post this? We are way way way far far far beyond attempting to make any changes in this and any other areas that are compounding at the higher water mark on the 'hockey stick'.
Please.Get real. View the Chris's course then come back and tell me if I am right or wrong.
Airdale-
To the extent that people are moving away from religion it is because they becoming more knowledgable and enlightened. To imply loss of religion is a cause of societal moral degeneracy and in turn to peak oil is quite a stretch (or rather, two stretches).
Rather, the failure of individuals, states and the world collectively to respond to peak oil is can be ascribed to the following factors:
Socialogical / Psychological
1. Denial / disbelief (this cannot be happening really, can it?)
2. The soporific comforting effects of consumerism and affluence (note that this is independent of religious views or lack thereof)
3. An expectation that science and technology can solve all future problems (or perhaps for the religious amongst us, plain old blind faith)
Corporate /political
1. Business management motivated to quarterly or annual results when choosing between alternatives to allocate capital.
2. Strategic pricing of oil by the OPEC and the oil industry over many years to dissuade investment in alternatives
3. The US being fixated with oil supply side over demand side, perhaps because half the outgoing regime are oil industry men.
Financial / economic
1. Artificially low cost of capital and artificially high returns driven by unchecked M3 growth
2. Fear of (real) renewables which have a lot lower lifetime customer values. By definition, a renewable anything has a lower cost to run and own than something you pay by the litre/mile to keep going. After all, the basis of capitalism is consumption. Maybe capitalism should have been called consumptionism.
3. Market failure in the sense that the many negative externalities have never been fully factored into oil consumption.
4. Disbelief or hostility by mainstream economists towards a world in which compound growth is no longer a given. So much of our modern economic and ultimately societal underpinnings come back to this one simple fact, itself underpinned by ready and cheap energy and oil. Reorientation towards a new zero growth / low growth paradigm in economics awaits a modern day Keynes. I know he or she is out there somewhere.
I am sure there are a heap more factors, but that is what comes to mind (whereas lack of religion does not).
There was a great article in SciAm last year(?) on what it would take to rid the US of foreign energy dependence. Honestly, I think it is going to take something of that magnitude to get out of this. However, like climate change, people won't believe something unless they can see it. Therefore, I am fairly certain at least some level of impact has to be felt before the massive investment required to reorient to a renewable society could be justified to the populace. Whether that is inherently defeating, because any impact signals we've left it all too late, remains to be seen. Either way, there will be winners and losers.
Personally, I think the world economy and quality of life is going to go through a period of sustained decline before things get better. Eventually, the world (economically, socially, politically) will realign to the new realities of steady state and sustainability. After all, is there really an alternative?
How far we shall decline and how steeply before reaching that place, I leave for experts on this site to judge.
I would place on the top of the list poor thinking skills (epistemology) by the vast majority of people. Shortcuts, such as ideological thinking (whether religious or secular in origin) prevent people from seeing the world as it is. And a commitment, to winning the intellectual competition for my tribe, over honestly seeking the truth. This later tendency places public relations, and propaganda above the truth. Another of the shortcuts is to assume that things are unchanging, there was sufficient oil for my grandparents, my parents, and at least for the first half of my lifetime, my children, therefore it is a law of nature that this will also be true for my kids, and grandchildren. This leads to the simplistic view that if we are falling short, it could only be the work of a group of evil people plotting against me.
Another mental shortcut is to learn only one of two paradigms for understanding the world, and applying them even when they are not appropriate. The most irritating to me is the "follow the money" type paradigm, all human activity is determined by individuals/groups following their pecuniary interests. For these people, Global warming is a fraud by scientists, whose sole incentive is to obtain research funds from a frightened government. The fact, that some groups of people and professions, try their best to be openminded is inconcievable to them. The other really difficult worldviews are usually religious, god loves his children, and wouldn't have designed a universe where bad things can happen to people that follow his writings....
I am so very pleased you can see into the mind of every non-religious person on the planet who speaks less than positively about religion.
/s
I invite you to figure out the many errors inherent in your statement. (Hint: It's quite similar to "They hate us for our freedom!")
Even though I am a christian I see society in general being under attack by fanatics of various faith groups. These fanatics like to claim they are the victims of society as they attack the civil rights of women, gays, and poor people in general. They form picket lines outside ob/gyn offices but I have never heard of pro-choice groups picketing any church. They beat down gays with Old Testament verses taken out of context which is what Jesus chastised the Pharisees of doing to the common folk. The poor are poor because they didn't pay their tithes to the fanatics.
Religions in the 21st century face the problem presenting themselves using metaphors that made sense to an agrarian culture but are meaningless in the age of the Internet. Few understand that the word "sin" was a term borrowed from archery competitions. Very few people have thrust in their sickle and brought in a sheave. Being cleansed in the blood doesn't make any sense if you are ignorant of the practices of the mystery religions which the Apostle Paul was competing with. Today's people believe a tanner is someone renting time under some UV lamps and have no understanding of the low place in life those making leather were held. Those who are biblical literalists have the burden of reconciling the many contradictions in their perfect book. Their rejection of evolution has hurt the cause of Christianity much more than anything Darwin and company ever could. I have never understood why literal acceptance of the first few chapters of Genesis is essential to accepting the teachings of Jesus. It is not that people don't like thinking about long term consequences as much as they can't see the connections between what the fanatics propagandize them with and the challenges of 21st century life.