<DrumBeat: November 16, 2008 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: November 17, 2008>

204 comments on Truth or Consequences

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Termoil on November 16, 2008 - 9:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In a perfect world, zero population growth would be a virtue, taught in Sunday schools and Madrasahs.

Fat chance of that! Both the Catholic church an the Madrashas notonly condone but encourage large families overtly. The primary excuse given is one of Gods divine right choose who is born and who is not but the underlying growth paradigm is simply a case of domination by numbers. The intersection of population growth and broader political objectives for that population is an area which increasingly deserves more study.

In these dying days of the Aquarian Age it is still difficult to have dispassionate and detached objective conversation about these issues without classifying people into various ethnic and cultural groups. That of course invites a charge of racist overtones which many of us find distasteful and therefore avoid the subject. Even on this site, population growth is only ever discussed in general terms with out scratching the surface and asking the hard questions like who is breeding, why, and what pressure points does that growth create and how will it be resolved? Linking explosive poulation growth to energy demand should not be too difficult for readers of TOD and yet there is a reluctance to push it too far.

My fear is that the pressure points will be ignored for too long in the name of political correctness and will only be resolved through violent upheavals as the dominant numbers overwhelm or are forced back by other cultural groups. We have alreay seen what this led to last century. Are we condemned to repeat it? I for one would prefer, even at the risk of causing offence, robust and forthright conversation, than allowing the situation to descend into a free for all.

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half full on November 16, 2008 - 11:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Fertility opportunity hypothesis does not classify people into ethnic and cultural groups, and says nothing about race. Abernethy draws examples from all groups to make the point. It is concerned with relative shifts in expectation caused by changes in environment.

Reversal of population growth in rich western countries since the time of North American peak oil correlates with steadily declining expectation of future affluence by the middle class. The group that formerly consumed the most energy has declined the most, even while immigrant groups have experienced an improvement in their prospects, relative to their former lives, and have more children as a result.

The significant implication of FOH is that western populations will continue to decline in sync with fossil fuel decline, while those populations that don't currently consume a lot of FF will continue to grow until affected by something else, like declining water and food.

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enemy of state on November 17, 2008 - 12:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Fertility opportunity hypothesis does not classify people into ethnic and cultural groups, and says nothing about race. Abernethy draws examples from all groups to make the point. It is concerned with relative shifts in expectation caused by changes in environment.

But, if we have even a single recalcitrant group, given long enough time, they will overwhelm the efforts of all others. And, of course there are major incentives for it to be YOUR group that has the highest growth rate. As long as religion/culture are sacrosanct this fatal flaw in population control will exist.

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half full on November 17, 2008 - 3:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Recalcitrant in what way? If you mean being happier, hence more fertile, with less consumption, then a new unhappy/poor equilibrium is quickly reached. If you mean happier while consuming more, that must imply more productive and competitive, and a new unhappy/productive equilibrium is even more quickly reached. Given that our expectations are currently deteriorating, the unhappy/productive condition is unstable and whatever creed is promoting it will lose adherents.

You may be attributing too much to religion. Italy is the home of the RC church, yet has the lowest fertility in the world - because their resource and manufacturing base is declining relative to the rest of Europe.

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Termoil on November 17, 2008 - 9:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It is broader than just religion adn takes into account cultural expectations. If the community you live in is dirtpoor adn all your peers are just a poor as you, but the one thing you have in common is large families, then that very sense of community of purpose will mean that you don't give any thought to how you are going to feed the resultant kids. The community will help you becasue thats the way it is. If you are a "sophisticated Italian culturalati" that likes to enjoy the finer things of life and freedom to travel and do as you please, then kids can be a real drag. The one kid you might have may come late in life at which time you can afford to buy in as much help as you need.

The immigrant family that moves in next door however with six kids, Grandma and aunts and uncles are notgoing to be content to remain inside all day. They will play on the street, open up businesses to sell the food they like, speak their own language and not bother with yours, maybe opoen a school and then perhaps invite many of their friends to join them. Before you know it, you are a stranger in your own neighbourhood, all because of numbers. Political power must surely follow.

EDIT: We have just seen in the US election how race can affect the political process. The voter turnout of blacks was significantly increased becasue of the candidates race. This marks a very big turning point for American culture as it embraces black culture in a way which shows that it is now a mainstream force.

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airdale on November 17, 2008 - 4:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In the future upcoming survival earth it will be awfully hard for just one person..or say one and his wife(some like 'partner' but its still wife to me)...hard as hell for just two to work a substience lifestyle.

And on the other side of that once more it will behoove farmers (if any left) to have several children. Must repopulate the earth,,and not destroy it will overpopulation. And natural selection as well as a lower natural age will likely take care of much of this.

We must look to the future as this one is shot to hell.

Or course cornucopians will disagree,,even with all the evidence in front of them.

So what is best? Have about two children. Teach them the skillsets to live in what may be the future.

Why is it I wonder that liberals tend to give illegal immigrants, and legal ones for that matter the full rights of uncontrolled births yet whine constantly about the rest of us? Their rights of many large families is no less than the rightsd the citizens of this country should enjoy.

I will garner many negatives numbers on this post. I am used to it.

Airdale

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204 comments on Truth or Consequences

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