Most, around 80%, of homes in Britain are heated by gas, which they burn in combination boilers. These are very efficient, so the efficiency of the actual generation of the electricity to supply homes for the purposes of heating would imply a taking a large hit.
To counteract that in the British climate you can use air-source heat pumps which multiply efficiency by 2.5-4 times, depending on whether it is a new build or not.

If you use a notional 40% as the average efficiency of burn at central facilities, against a notional 80% for gas fired central heating, it is around a wash after you have installed a heat pump regarding energy use efficiency for existing housing stock.

The cost of installing heat pumps or moving to CHP systems would be high though.

1kWh of gas in an efficient boiler would provide about 0.9kWh of heat.

The same kWh of gas through a combined cycle power station then a heat pump would create roughly 0.5kWh of useful electric (after transmission) and therefore 1.5kWh of heat (assuming COP of 3 for the heat pump)

Using CHP and heat pumps as a co-generation stop gap as http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3661

1kWh of gas through a small engine generating 0.3 kWh of electricity powering heat pumps to produce 0.9 kWh of heat with the 0.6kWh of waste heat being put to good use also provides a total of 1.5kWh of useful heat from the original kWh of gas.

The most likely use of coal in the future IMO will be gasification and co-firing with natural gas in a combined cycle.

Yeah, there are all sorts of figures and assumptions that are going to produce slightly different results.
I don't think that they are likely to affect my basic point that the high efficiency of combi gas boilers mean that raising the efficiency of burn with central generation is going to be difficult.

Your factor of 3 for heat pumps in existing build sounds high, as they work most efficiently in underfloor heating configurations, and at minimum to get anywhere near that figure for older builds radiators would need replacing to oversize them by around 20% to make up for the lower temperature of the water.

One way to raise efficiency might be to adopt the fuel cells that they are introducing into houses in Japan to provide both heat and power.
To say that the technology is immature and expensive though is to understate the case.

My real point of difficulty though is that short of underground coal gasification or the exploitation of land hydrates, I can't really see where the gas is going to come from, within a few years.

Coal burn or nuclear seem to me to be the only affordable alternatives in large quantity, where land based wind at high speeds is not available.

Hi again, Dave

I've completed my house renovation but have kept my partial underfloor heating from a condensing gas boiler. The trouble with underfloor is it only works on the most modern builds with high insulation and air tightness. I have 18mm wood over concrete screed and have calculated 80w m^-2 output - which is about 30w short so I top up with a convector gas fire. I looked at running additional rads from the manifold but at 45c flow temperature the deltaT is less than half that of a conventional primary flow so the radiator would need to be over 2x bigger, not 20%. ( 45-21 room vs 75-21 ).
I have noted the effectiveness of primary window draught proofing ( especially on the old leaded lights ), secondary glazing, under suspended wooden floor celotex and caulking, sealing over downlighter holes with fibre loft caps ( and replacing the bulbs with Osram Decostar IRC 20/35w which give exactly the same lumen, temp and CRI output but use 40% less energy and project all their heat downwards ). All I need to do now is swap my wife for a low energy version :)
On the control side I have a full weather controlled modulating system. It lowers the rad temps as the demand lowers calculated as a function of outside, inside and target temp in the 4 zones. It learns the response time of the house and will start heating earlier if it's cold and never come on at all if there is a sudden warm spell.
I also chose a boiler that will run off propane if needed and remote pumped showers from oversized tanks in case of intermittent water supply.

I think we need to be careful to distinguish not only between individual and collective actions but the impacts of not doing so on both levels. If there are intermittent power cuts then me having genset/battery backup is a valid option but if power become chronically unreliable then even the most extensive off-grid system won't bring food to your table or stop others coming to take yours.
My experience in South Africa is that communities will stratify by wealth as security deteriorates as a function of employment and resources.
By all means set up for intermittent power outages, even keep a week or two of food and water on hand but realistically if circumstances go beyond that then nothing short of an armed enclave will give you total security.
Having a brightly lit, warm house with food on the table in a cold, dark neighbourhood of people with starving children is not a recipe for success.
There is no option but to be strategic about this and reduce demand. Whether that is ration by price or by smart meter, efficiency grants, programs and leglislation or otherwise across all resource types is a matter of debate.
Unless we abandon any pretence to democracy and revert to an almost feudal society with rent paying serfs maintaining a gated landlord class and avoiding the armed guards.
Like Russia, Brazil, China and South Africa then. Great :(

On your first paragraph I would emphasise that it is 20 years since I have had any building experience, and insulation and efficient energy use were hardly priorities at the time.
As you say, underfloor heating can only be installed realistically in a new build, and that is where you get the efficiencies which can approach 4 times.
My 20% oversized radiators was simply what it said on the tin on a couple of sites that install heat pumps, so your real world experience is very valuable.

Your second paragraph I find depressingly accurate, with the twist that in the UK I cannot see civil war being avoided, as we have all the ingredients of ethnic and religious divide which AFAIK when times get tough have historically always led to vicious warfare.
I would be interested in any counter examples anyone may have.

Although I am not a card-carrying doomer for the world in general, as I feel that it is possible that in many areas such as China and France the technological basis may allow them to pull through in relatively good shape and maintain a technological civilisation, I have a really hard time seeing how anything like the present 60 million population is likely to be kept going in the case of the UK.

It would be a different matter if we currently run most of our electricity from nuclear as France does, but the time is likely to short now to do so, and high power prices will price our goods out of the tough market.