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63 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008
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63 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008
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Fig. 1 says high demand to me. Low price must stimulate demand beyond the production curve, and with OPEC cuts - there must be a whipsaw in price some time soon - mustn't there?
Or maybe we are working our way back down the demand destruction price curve - demand creation among the less wealthy leading to lower prices. In essence, high paying Americans now being frozen out of the market?
To determine that you would need data on oil imports into the major consuming nations. It's likely that oil imports to the US have dropped off significantly since the financial crisis, as well as Europe and China.
That means that imports would have increased in poorer nations, whose consumers can now afford more gasoline etc.
Also, I think Somalia's crude imports recently increased by a significant amount. ;)
Euan
Demand is dropping, but at a decreasing rate (in US).
Here are last 4 weeks of Mastercard data for YoY gasoline demand:
10/24/2008 -8.0%
10/31/2008 -6.6%
11/7/2008 -5.3%
11/14/2008 -4.3%
If shippers start to ship again, we will get boost in demand even in recession/depression. At least here, gasoline is probably the MOST affordable item there is. (well, SPAM is pretty cheap too but gasoline has more joules and uses)
RE: SPAM
Yes and gasoline is probably more nutritional.
RE: SPAM
As a musubi afficianado I resent that remark. Nothing like processed meat. Burger King sells two different specials with spam in Hawaii.
True, but it it still less affordable than a year ago and that is the point - in order to continue world economic growth the oil has to become ever more affordable so we use more of it, and for the last 9 years or so it has mostly got ever less affordable.
Even at $50 the oil has risen ~400% in those 9 years, way above wage inflation, the only reason US gasoline demand holds up is because your day to day lifestyles depend on its use and it takes a long time to change. First you will give up discretionary things that use oil, like air flights to go on vacation.
Næt - can you explain please.
And do yo have data on the energy density of Spam? Or is this an unsubstantiated claim? And beyond powering vehicles and other motorised tools what else is gasoline used for;-?
spam has 176 Calories per 2-ounce serving, so 5891000 Joules per pound. So it takes ~22 pounds of spam to get the same amount of energy as in a gallon of gasoline.
This is kind of silly though.
I agree, the benchmark energy content foodstuff in the peak oil community is Cap'n Crunch.
Hi Folks,
More importantly, what is the EROEI of this 'fuel'? The real context is that 'spam' and all similar processed foods have huge hidden energy inputs - it might be useful to do an analysis on the energy input into producing these 'foods' - a life-cycle analysis - from farm to sewage plant - so to speak...
L,
Sid.
My impression from around NYC area is that auto demand has gone back close to pre-ramp levels. I am expecting very heavy holiday traffic heading to new England Wed.
It is also really cold! Oil trucks are all over the place.
Matt
the price may not jump back so readily due to deflationary effects.