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109 comments on DrumBeat: November 22, 2008

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westexas on November 22, 2008 - 10:57am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

I noticed a recent story about Yemen’s oil production problems on the Energy Bulletin:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7739402.stm

(Edited to correct mistake regarding Yibal Field.)

I looked at the EIA production, consumption and net export numbers, which are shown below. Once again, we see an accelerating net export decline rate.

Yemen , 2000 to 2007:

2000 Net Exports: 340,000 bpd

2007 Net Exports: 177,000 bpd

Production: -4.5%/year

Consumption: +5.7%/year

Net Exports: -9.3%year

Initial and Most Recent Net Export Declines:

Initial Year Over Year Net Export Decline Rate (2001): -0.8%/year

Most Recent Year Over Year Net Export Decline Rate (2007): -31%/year

Charts

Total Liquids Production:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/img/charts/YM_petro_large.png

Consumption:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/img/charts/YM_cons_large.png

Net Exports:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/img/charts/YM_net_imports_large.png

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westexas on November 22, 2008 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oman, where the Yibal Field is located, is not showing as sharp a decline as Yemen (chiefly because of Oman's increasing, but low, consumption), but it shows what happens with "low" net export decline rate of -5.1%/year, over a seven year period:

The combined net exports from Yemen and Oman have dropped by 440,000 bpd since 2000, and it would appear that their current combined 2007 net exports of 819,000 are going bye-bye at a pretty rapid clip.

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The Dude on November 22, 2008 - 11:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm analyzing the petroleum supply situation in the Pacific NW - want to throw something together for an article, too. Studying how we get our oil/gasoline, I'm beginning to think of WA/OR as nations wholly dependent on the outside, which will be more and more apropos with time. Interesting to consider CA as suffering from irreversible production declines and ELM...pluribus unum, you bet, but if you want our pinot noir and hydro DC fork over that heavy crude!

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Sustainable Ballard on November 22, 2008 - 10:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Will you announce when you publish your article? I'm involved with Sustainable Communities ALL Over Puget Sound (SCALLOPS) and we'd be very interested in your analysis. Thanks!

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The Dude on November 23, 2008 - 5:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'll submit it to the editors here first - should be up their alley. I guess! Mostly just an exposition of where our oil comes from, how import sources have changed over time - the EIA keeps track of all foreign imports by state back to 1986. Also illustrating the pipeline systems on the West coast and throughputs for each, local and out-of-state refineries we utilize, legislative roadblocks to expansion of inputs to same - did you know there's a law on the books for WA forbidding tankers larger than 125k deadweight tons from entering Puget Sound? Etc etc.

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maltose on November 22, 2008 - 4:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

wt, Oct 08 production at Cantarell down to 902,000 bpd.
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=321149&CategoryId=14091

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109 comments on DrumBeat: November 22, 2008

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