Oman, where the Yibal Field is located, is not showing as sharp a decline as Yemen (chiefly because of Oman's increasing, but low, consumption), but it shows what happens with "low" net export decline rate of -5.1%/year, over a seven year period:

The combined net exports from Yemen and Oman have dropped by 440,000 bpd since 2000, and it would appear that their current combined 2007 net exports of 819,000 are going bye-bye at a pretty rapid clip.

I'm analyzing the petroleum supply situation in the Pacific NW - want to throw something together for an article, too. Studying how we get our oil/gasoline, I'm beginning to think of WA/OR as nations wholly dependent on the outside, which will be more and more apropos with time. Interesting to consider CA as suffering from irreversible production declines and ELM...pluribus unum, you bet, but if you want our pinot noir and hydro DC fork over that heavy crude!

Will you announce when you publish your article? I'm involved with Sustainable Communities ALL Over Puget Sound (SCALLOPS) and we'd be very interested in your analysis. Thanks!

I'll submit it to the editors here first - should be up their alley. I guess! Mostly just an exposition of where our oil comes from, how import sources have changed over time - the EIA keeps track of all foreign imports by state back to 1986. Also illustrating the pipeline systems on the West coast and throughputs for each, local and out-of-state refineries we utilize, legislative roadblocks to expansion of inputs to same - did you know there's a law on the books for WA forbidding tankers larger than 125k deadweight tons from entering Puget Sound? Etc etc.

wt, Oct 08 production at Cantarell down to 902,000 bpd.
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=321149&CategoryId=14091