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192 comments on DrumBeat: November 26, 2008

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ace on November 26, 2008 - 4:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks for that link, Ron!

The forecast below is bottom up project based until 2012, followed by a steady decline rate of about 4%/year which between your link's 2% to 5%.

The decline in Russian output is a key factor in forecasting that world peak oil is probably 2008, excluding biofuels.

The forecast shows a steady decline because many of Russia's new oil projects have long ramp up periods.

Russia Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production to 2020 - click to enlarge

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totoneila on November 26, 2008 - 6:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello Ace, WT, Darwinian, Khebab,

As usual, thxs for the heavy lifting on the statistics, graphs, and analysis. As Russia goes postPeak in FFs, I think we also need to remember how important they are as a global exporter of I-NPK. The US, now a net importer of I-NPK relies on Russia for 12% [mostly N ammonia & urea].

From the POT website, a cool clickable graphic of each country's I-NPK and agro-statistics:

http://www.potashcorp.com/investor_relations/markets_information/world_m...
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webpage to launch World Agriculture & Fertilizer Market Map
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Russia net exports N = 4.65, P = 2.28, K = 5.72 [each millions of tons source: FAO,IFA, 2005 data]. I also believe they are a net exporter of recovered sulfur from sour crude & sour natgas, too.

Let's hope that Russia doesn't financially and socially implode so that these vital exports are curtailed. As you well know: we are evolved to sit in the dark, but we cannot do starvation. Have you hugged your bag of NPK today?

How long before postPeak women will go crazy for the guy with the biggest O-NPK compost pit and veggie plot?

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192 comments on DrumBeat: November 26, 2008

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