I am someone who went from being 100% certain that IPCC report didn't go far enough, to one who wants to examine both sides of the issue. Some of the things that changed my mind include the following:

1. I don't think "coal" and "renewables" is an either/or option. With our current financial situation, and the time line to put in renewables, our options are probably closer to "coal" or "deforest the world", or "coal" or "mostly do without". If we don't have two equally good options, we need to understand exactly why we are making the choice we are making.

2. The climate is changing, but there are different stories that put less emphasis on carbon dioxide that seem to make at least equal sense. One concern is that we may be near the beginning of the next ice age. If this is truly the case, we need to understand the situation.

3. There are many measurement issues, both in the historical data (ice cores) and the more recent data, that raise issues about the accuracy of the supposed underlying data. See the web site wattsupwiththat.com.

That said, coal does have problems, aside from global warming issues. The acidification of oceans is a real concern, as well.

The climate is changing, but there are different stories that put less emphasis on carbon dioxide that seem to make at least equal sense. One concern is that we may be near the beginning of the next ice age. If this is truly the case, we need to understand the situation.

When rationality and irrationality converge, irrationality will always triumph. It has entertainment value!

In this context, reasonableness and restraint are weaknesses and expressing them are exploitation opportunities for the irrational. What are the rational alternatives to this triumph of irrationality?

- Climate disruption investigators can become advocates; data be damned, full speed ahead! This would give the newly created advocates access to funding from interest groups and both sides would have a level institutional playing field. After all, climate disruption mitigation is capital intensive and would require large investments. The public may not understand the science, but all understand money and lobbyists.

- Climate disruption investigators can focus on the data and hope that the political interface allows for wisdom and foresight to leak into the dialogue. (Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha ...)

- Climate disruption investigators can create so much data that everyone becomes hopelessly confused. This is happening with the economy. Everyone is going broke but nobody can figure out why or what to do about it. There is a policy under this fuzz of conflicting data; the climate problem, like all the other human problems will solve itself. The catch is, we humanoids may not like the 'Gaia Solution' very much.

While scientists such as James Hansen have focused almost entirely - and persuasively - on climate disruption and atmospheric carbon, a large body of science and policy critics including Ralph Nader and many, many posters here have gathered this into the general heading of overall Earth Resource Availability. (ERA?) It's not just a predictably functioning atmosphere that is under stress, it is everything! We humans are stressing everything. Even if Earth temperatures are leveling off or declining, there is no substitute for topsoil and fresh water, which are in finite supply ... and oil and metals and credit and species and fishes and whatnot.

As for outcomes; unpredictablility is the new stability. If a market or context can gyrate wildly and upredictably, it will. Like price swings destroying investment in new and existing energy sources, an intermediate swing in global temperatures can be a simple 'fake out' move; a short- term drop before a greater rise. Creating instability and removing incentives to plan may be an outcome of our interference in the natural order - the most dangerous outcome.

Gail said:"That said, coal does have problems"

Yep. It sure does. It takes a lot of power to mine coal. Lots of fuel.

It also destroys nature. Like soil and trees and of late whole mountains.

I mean one needed to take a auto trip to DC from Ky back in the 80s when they hadn't time to regrow the vegetation on those mountain tops and as we came closer and closer to those mountain(via Ky to WV then to Viginia...I kept asking those in the auto.

"What the hell is wrong with those mountains? There is no tops on them,they are totally bare!!"

No answers were forthcoming.From a distance we couldn't tell. I thought to myself "what fool or organization is tearing down mountains?"

Later I learned the truth. How bad was it? Very bad. Then more recently I read the books penned by Silas House. A native Kentuckian who was born and raised there. The onslaught against the people there was unbelievable as I read his fiction that was likely not a bad as the real truth.

So yes, we will actually remove a mountain top. Some of the most beautiful country on the planet. We will do it for why?

I went this friday to the cinema and watched the latest movie. The Day The Earth Stood Still. I remember seeing the original but the premise and plot of this version was far far different.

Keenau Reeves was telling the population of this planet"Its not YOUR planet, and we can't allow you to destroy it for there are not that many that can support life."

The Sec of Def(Kathy Bates) was furious. She tried everything before trying to understand that we were the enemy.

The movie is worth seeing just for those words. "Its not your planet"...meaning I think that other lifeforms had a right to this planet just as valid as ours. So they had sent planetary life rafts to save the other lifeforms.

I won't give the spoiler on how it ends.

So lets tear down those mountains. Poison the water. Shove the debrie down the mountain side. Rip the land to shreds so future generations will realize what ignorant rapacious utter fools we were to destroy the planet.

Its like saying 'non-negotiable lifestyle'. It means eventually we ALL die in mass because we decided to not negotiate?

Airdale-there is little hope and seeing that on the faces of the actors was amazing when the truth finally dawned on them.
I love flicks. Always have since the Drive-Ins of my youth. I sometimes find truth and reality hidden in the rest of it. The part beyond just entertainment. Its displaying our culture.

Airdale,

Ah yes, I can always spot a fellow Kentuckian or a West Virginian, the only people in America who seem to know that mountaintop removal blasting even exists.

Former Vice President Al Gore is astounding to me...the man who can go into fits of hysteria about every yard of arctic ice, but seems completely blind to what is happining in a border state of Tennessee to one of the most (formerly)beautifully diverse ecosystems in the world.

Unlike the constant theoretical debates about climate change and global warming, the blasting away of mountaintops and the destruction of ecological diversity is anything but theoretical. All you have to do is look at photographs of the region, both from the ground and from satellite, to see the constant march of the destruction.

Mountaintop removal blasting is a horrific crime, but hey, wind and solar has "low EROEI" doesn't it?...depending on who is doing the counting, and what all is included, and how you factor the life expectancy of the hardware, and developments in energy storage, and developments in solar panels wind rotors, and, and, and...your right, solar and wind are too much trouble, blow off another mountain.

RC

If Mr. Gore were to complain about mountaintop removal, someone might ask him why his administration (1993-2001) promoted it, kept it legal and got rid of the regional EPA administrator (former Congressman Peter Kostmayer) who tried to protect WV's environment from further ruin. Gore made great speeches as VP, but "forgot" to protect the environment when he was in a position to do so.

WTI toxic waste incinerator, East Liverpool, Ohio
SUVs instead of efficient cars
interstate highway expansion (TEA-21 law)
more oil drilling for northwest Alaska
energy deregulation (which led to Enron scam)
shredding of food safety laws (Delaney Clause)
genetically engineered phood

NAFTA and WTO
Option 9 old growth forest logging plan
to mention a few problems

Tennessee has mining, too.

The mining companies say, "it's mine. All mine."

check out

http://www.ilovemountains.org

http://www.oilempire.us/wti.html

I don't think "coal" and "renewables" is an either/or option. With our current financial situation, and the time line to put in renewables, our options are probably closer to "coal" or "deforest the world", or "coal" or "mostly do without".

Do without what? Do you think that we 'need' to burn coal to manufacture and operate 40 inch plasma screen televisions, 100 watt/channel stereo systems, electric clothes driers, MP3 players, five star hotels, amusement parks etc.? If we are faced with energy descent, the primary thing we need to concentrate on is descending. That is we need to create economic institutions that are focused on creating real long term human welfare (i.e. physical and psychological health) with minimal resource consumption rather than on the indiscriminate increase of short term sales volumes.

we need to understand exactly why we are making the choice we are making.

Yes. Coal is a finite resource and its combustion is environmentally destructive. Its use should be continued only as part of a transition strategy. Trying to stay as rich as we can in the present and praying that luck and the technology fairy will pull our fat out of the fire in the future is not much of strategy. How much coal we 'need' to burn and how much renewable energy we can afford to incorporate into our economic infrastructure depends on what kind of lifestyle we are trying to maintain. We should be seeking a social transformation rather than trying to convince ourselves that the continued heavy use of coal may not be that destructive after all.

Many of us argue for social transformation and culture change.

I think that you are spot-on with regard to sorting out what we need versus what we want.

We have been sold a bill of goods by the Corrupt Crony Capitalist Establishment. Those who recognize must work for culture change however we can.

We must especially be the change we need to see as much as we can. Perhaps that is the best and most effective thing to do, even though it may seem to be the least effective thing we can do on the face of it.

Second, we need to converse about this need for radical cultural change with others. One-on-one or small-group conversation, especially in the context of ongoing relationships, is a very effective way to encourage change.

Third, and also essential is to work toward positive change within whatever political, corporate, religious, or social and cultural context one finds oneself.

Finally, there are opportunities to create new contexts within which to live out the radical change we need to see. Communes and cooperatives and every kind of neighborhood or community effort to reduce pollution and bring about sustainability is important.

I doubt that our funny little species can survive the next twenty or thirty years or so, but in the face of this I still work for change.

All of our efforts are imperfect and will need to be revised along the way. Our population will be reduced by war, famine, flood, fire, starvation, and disease. We have changed the soil and water -- not only the air -- to the point that we will reap painful consequences from our early ignorance and our later intentional ignorance.

Cultural change is the vital thing. Without it the most beneficial technological changes will not be possible, and the without cultural change the best technological changes would not be enough anyway.

Noah's job was relatively simple in the old story. He built an ark and found pairs of animals and family to bring on board, and stocked it up for the ride. In the old story, the vast majority of the people and other creatures were left to fend for themselves in the flood.

How much of our habitat can we save or recover in the face of massive ecological blowback? Will there be an habitable world for us in 20 or 30 years? It does not look likely, especially as we will likely use all manner of WMD along the way to extinction.

But still, there is a slim chance that someone will survive.

Some facts are in order here. Oxidation of coal produces CO2. Plants use CO2 in the photosynthesis process to produce food all living need to survive and thrive, especially humans. Plant photosynthesis is optimized at 1000 PPM of atmospheric CO2. Plant photosynthesis stops at 200 PPM. Atmospheric levels of CO2 have increased 35% from 285 PPM in the 1800's to 385 PPM today. That increase, together with moderate warming, has benefited all of us in the form of enhanced crop and forest production. Those two trends, 1) increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and 2) moderate warming, largely driven by increased solar activity, have done more to green the planet over the last several decades than all the environmental political action and expenditures combined. One has to ask, why are environmentalists so anxious to torpedo both of these remarkably beneficial trends, and at such great economic, social and environmental cost. As the renown agricultural scientist, Sylvan H. Witter, once stated, "Seldom has CO2, even deserved mention in monographs or books on plant nutrition. Yet, it gives the most remarkable response of all in plant bulk, is usually in short supply, and is nearly always limiting for photosynthesis" (Witter, 1985).

I hate to make an argument based on expert authority, but just want to begin by saying my doctorate is in biology, primarily related to plant evolution and ecology.

co2 fertilization effect is overblown because it is only part of the story. To understand the whole story is not easy however. One part begins with an enzyme called RuBisCo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RuBisCO), which captures co2 in plant cells, eventually leading to carbon fixation. More co2 does indeed enhance the ability of RuBisCo to effectively fix carbon dioxide. Early experiments captured this effect, both in greenhouses and then outside in what are called FACE studies (http://www.bnl.gov/face/faceProgram.asp).

But back to evolutionary history to think through this fully. When RuBisCo first evolved oxygen concentrations were low and co2 concentrations were high. Today, the reverse is true. This leads to the issue of photorespiration, which is when oxygen, and not co2, finds the binding site on a RuBisCo molecule (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photorespiration).

Now let us connect some basic plant physiology to climate change and higher temperatures. When the temperature is higher, photorespiration dominates over carbon fixation. This is so important that some plants have evolved mechanisms to mitigate the problem (see discussion of CAM and C4 plants). Essentially, early FACE studies didn't capture photorespiration because they only increase co2 concentrations. Newer studies attempt to raise temperature and mimic changes in precipitation.

It doesn't help that you are citing a 1985 reference. Science has progressed way beyond the (necessarily) simple experiments of those days. Ecosystems going forward are generally expected to have weaker abilities to fix carbon, not stronger. There are even carbon flux towers in forests and fields around the world and they use "natural experiments," such as local drought or heat waves, to see how soils and vegetation respond to such stress.

Oh how I wish more people would be quiet or at least ask honest questions when delving into subjects they know almost nothing about.

So, large increases in atmospheric CO2 can warm the planet and turn oceans anoxic and sulphidic, but that's okay as long as it marginally benefits human agriculture.

There is a fundamental idea that farmkids learn by the time they're 10 (I certainly did). The formal version is called Liebig's Law of the Minium, and it means that plant growth limited by whichever requirement is in shortest supply, regardless of oversupply of everything else.

Plants need nutrients, water, sunlight, appropriate temperature/climate, and sometimes other things like bees.

People growing plants in greenhouses normally supply everything else, and then one can certainly increase yields somewhat by adding more CO2. Likewise, in great soil, with plenty of water and sun, a little more CO2 can help a bit, depending on the crop type.

This has approximately ~zero to do with most of the world's agriculture, and in particular, no amount of CO2 will compensate for not having enough water or the wrong temperature range. No amount of CO2 will grow corn in the Sahara. No amount of CO2 will avoid harm to the sugar maple business in New England from higher temperatures.

No amount of CO2 will help the megadrought likely coming in the US Southwest, reminsicent (but worse) than the tales in anthropologist Brian Fagan's The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations.

From CO2 Science [note the bold] (references include):

Forest Growth Rates
Volume 8, Number 16: 20 April 2005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In a lecture presented at the University of Minnesota nearly ten years ago, Idso (1995) laid out the evidence for a worldwide increase in the growth rates of earth's forests that had been coeval with the progression of the Industrial Revolution and the rising CO2 content of the atmosphere. The development of this concept began with the study of LaMarche et al. (1984), who analyzed annual growth rings of two species of pine tree growing near the timberline in California, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico and thereby discovered large increases in growth rate between 1859 and 1983, which rates exceeded what might have been expected from climatic trends but were consistent with the global trend of atmospheric CO2. The developmental journey continued with a study of ring-width measurements of Douglas fir trees in British Columbia, Canada, that also revealed a marked increase in growth in the trees' latter decades (Parker et al., 1987), leading the principal investigator of the project to state that "environmental influences other than increased CO2 have not been found that would explain this [phenomenon]." West (1988) reported much the same thing with respect to long-leaf pines in Georgia, i.e., that their annual growth increments had begun to rise at an unusual rate about 1920, increasing by approximately 30% by the mid-1980s; and he too stated that "the increased growth cannot be explained by trends in precipitation, temperature, or Palmer Drought Severity Index," leaving the rising CO2 content of the atmosphere as the likely cause of the increase in productivity.

Contemporaneously, stands of Scots pines in northern Finland were found to have experienced growth increases ranging from 15 to 43% between 1950 and 1983 (Hari et al., 1984; Hari and Arovaara, 1988). As to the cause of this phenomenon, the researchers stated that "CO2 seems to be the only environmental factor that has been changing systematically during this century in the remote area under study," and it was thus to this factor that they looked for an explanation of their observations.

The next major development in the continuing saga was the finding of Graybill and Idso (1993) that very long ring-width chronologies (some stretching back nearly 1800 years) of high-altitude long-lived bristlecone, foxtail and limber pine trees in Arizona, California, Colorado and Nevada all developed an unprecedented upward growth trend somewhere in the 1850s that continued as far towards the present as the records extended. In this case, too, like the ones that preceded it, comparisons of the chronologies with temperature and precipitation records ruled out the possibility that either of these climatic variables played a significant role in enhancing the trees' growth rates, strongly implicating the historical rise in the air's CO2 content as the factor responsible for their ever-increasing productivity over the prior century and a half.

Perhaps the most striking evidence of all for the significant growth enhancement of earth's forests by the historical increase in the air's CO2 concentration was provided by the study of Phillips and Gentry (1994). Noting that turnover rates of mature tropical forests correlate well with measures of net productivity (Weaver and Murphy, 1990), the two scientists assessed the turnover rates of 40 tropical forests from around the world in order to test the hypothesis that global forest productivity was increasing in situ; and they found that the turnover rates of these highly productive forests had indeed been rising ever higher since at least 1960, with an apparent pan-tropical acceleration since 1980. In discussing what might be causing this phenomenon, they stated that "the accelerating increase in turnover coincides with an accelerating buildup of CO2," and as Pimm and Sugden (1994) stated in a companion article, it was "the consistency and simultaneity of the changes on several continents that lead Phillips and Gentry to their conclusion that enhanced productivity induced by increased CO2 is the most plausible candidate for the cause of the increased turnover."

Four years later, a group of eleven researchers headed by Phillips (Phillips et al., 1998) reported another impressive finding. Working with data on tree basal area (a surrogate for tropical forest biomass) for the period 1958-1996, which they obtained from several hundred plots of mature tropical trees scattered about the world, they found that average forest biomass for the tropics as a whole had increased substantially. In fact, they calculated that the increase amounted to approximately 40% of the missing terrestrial carbon sink of the entire globe. Hence, they suggested that "intact forests may be helping to buffer the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, thereby reducing the impacts of global climate change," as Idso (1991a,b) had earlier suggested, and they identified the aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content as one of the factors responsible for this phenomenon. Other contemporary studies also supported their findings (Grace et al., 1995; Malhi et al., 1998), verifying the fact that neotropical forests were indeed accumulating ever more carbon; and Phillips et al. (2002) continued to state that this phenomenon was occurring "possibly in response to the increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (Prentice et al., 2001; Malhi and Grace, 2000)."

As time progressed, however, it became less and less popular (i.e., politically correct) to report positive consequences of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations; and the results of Phillips and company began to be repeatedly questioned (Sheil, 1995; Sheil and May, 1996; Condit, 1997; Clark, 2002; Clark et al., 2003). In response to the most recent of these challenges to their work, we published a rebuttal in our Editorial of 18 Jun 2003. And now, Phillips, joined by 17 other researchers (Lewis et al., 2005b), including one who had earlier criticized his conclusions, has published a new analysis that vindicates his and his colleagues' earlier analyses.

One of the primary concerns of critics of Phillips' work has been the fact that his meta-analyses have included sites with a wide range of tree census intervals (2-38 years), which they contend could be confounding or "perhaps even driving conclusions from comparative studies," as Lewis et al. (2005b) describe it. However, in their detailed study of this potential problem, which they conclude is indeed real, they find that re-analysis of Phillips' published results "shows that the pan-tropical increase in stem turnover rates over the late 20th century cannot be attributed to combining data with differing census intervals." Or as they state more obtusely in another place, "the conclusion that turnover rates have increased in tropical forests over the late 20th century is robust to the charge that this is an artifact due to the combination of data that vary in census interval (cf. Sheil, 1995)."

Lewis et al. (2005b) additionally note that "Sheil's (1995) original critique of the evidence for increasing turnover over the late 20th century also suggests that the apparent increase could be explained by a single event, the 1982-83 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as many of the recent data spanned this event." However, as they continue, "recent analyses from Amazonia have shown that growth, recruitment and mortality rates have simultaneously increased within the same plots over the 1980s and 1990s, as has net above-ground biomass, both in areas largely unaffected, and in those strongly affected, by ENSO events (Baker et al., 2004; Lewis et al., 2004a; Phillips et al., 2004)."

In conclusion, we note that these most recent developments continue to support the view that there has indeed been an increase in forest growth rates throughout the world that has gradually accelerated over the years in concert with the historical increase in the air's CO2 concentration; and, therefore, we fully expect this trend to continue into the future.

Sherwood, Keith and Craig Idso

References
Baker, T.R., Phillips, O.L., Malhi, Y., Almeida, S., Arroyo, L., Di Fiore, A., Erwin, T., Higuchi, N., Killeen, T.J., Laurance, S.G., Laurance, W.F., Lewis, S.L., Monteagudo, A., Neill, D.A., Núñez Vargas, P., Pitman, N.C.A., Silva, J.N.M. and Vásquez Martínez, R. 2004. Increasing biomass in Amazonian forest plots. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B - Biological Sciences 359: 353-365.

Clark, D.A. 2002. Are tropical forests an important carbon sink? Reanalysis of the long-term plot data. Ecological Applications 12: 3-7.

Clark, D.A., Piper, S.C., Keeling, C.D. and Clark, D.B. 2003. Tropical rain forest tree growth and atmospheric carbon dynamics linked to interannual temperature variation during 1984-2000. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 100: 10.1073/pnas.0935903100.

Condit, R. 1997. Forest turnover, density, and CO2. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 12: 249-250.

Grace, J., Lloyd, J., McIntyre, J., Miranda, A.C., Meir, P., Miranda, H.S., Nobre, C., Moncrieff, J., Massheder, J., Malhi, Y., Wright, I. andGash, J. 1995. Carbon dioxide uptake by an undisturbed tropical rain-forest in Southwest Amazonia, 1992-1993. Science 270: 778-780.

Graybill, D.A. and Idso, S.B. 1993. Detecting the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment in tree-ring chronologies. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7: 81-95.

Hari, P. and Arovaara, H. 1988. Detecting CO2 induced enhancement in the radial increment of trees. Evidence from the northern timberline. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research 3: 67-74.

Hari, P., Arovaara, H., Raunemaa, T. And Hautojarvi, A. 1984. Forest growth and the effects of energy production: A method for detecting trends in the growth potential of trees. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 14: 437-440.

Idso, S.B. 1991a. The aerial fertilization effect of CO2 and its implications for global carbon cycling and maximum greenhouse warming. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 72: 962-965.

This completely ignores the loss of forests to wildfires, as a result of rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. And this doesn't even begin to touch on the loss of millions of acres of forests to destructive beetles that can now flourish in the warming northern climes.

The Importance of Climate Change for Future Wildfire Scenarios in the Western United States

What can we expect from western U.S. forest fires in the 21st century? Projections of future
climate change from general circulation models simulate significant increases in temperature across
the western United States during the 21st century. Projections of precipitation are more variable, but
they generally suggest drier summer conditions in the West (Running, 2006). In fact, a transition to
persistently drier conditions has already begun in the Southwest, and mountain snowpack has already
declined throughout the West (Mote et al., 2005; Seager et al., 2007). These projections, combined
with an increase in population density and the continued expansion of the urban–wildland interface,
indicate that fires will continue to be a concern in the West.

Researchers Link Wildfires, Climate Change

Scientists worldwide are watching temperatures rise, the land turn dry and vast forests go up in flames. In the Siberian taiga and Canadian Rockies, in southern California and Australia, researchers find growing evidence tying an upsurge in wildfires to climate change, an impact long predicted by global-warming forecasters.

Forest and peat fires release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, adding to climate warming, which in turn will intensify forest fires, further worsening warming in a planetary feedback loop.

"This is a carbon bomb," said Johann Goldammer, director of the Global Fire Monitoring Center at Germany's Freiburg University. "It's sitting there waiting to be ignited, and there is already ignition going on."

A team at California's Scripps Institution, in a headline-making report this month, found that warmer temperatures, causing earlier snow runoff and consequently drier summer conditions, were the key factor in an explosion of big wildfires in the U.S. West over three decades, including fires now rampaging east of Los Angeles.

Researchers previously reached similar conclusions in Canada, where fire is destroying an average 6.4 million acres a year, compared with 2.5 million in the early 1970s. And an upcoming U.S.-Russian-Canadian scientific paper points to links between warming and wildfires in Siberia, where 2006 already qualifies as an extreme fire season, sixth in the past eight years. Far to the south in drought-stricken Australia, meanwhile, 2005 was the hottest year on record, and the dangerous bushfire season is growing longer.

"Temperature increases are intimately linked with increases in area burned in Canada, and I would expect the same worldwide," said Mike Flannigan, a veteran Canadian Forest Service researcher.

Nadezda M. Tchebakova, a climatologist at Russia's Sukachev Institute of Forestry, said southern Siberia's average winter temperatures in the 1980-2000 period were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the pre-1960 norm.

"Snowmelt starts much earlier in the spring," she said by telephone from the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk. "Precipitation is decreasing. This combination of elevated temperatures and decreased precipitation should provide conditions for greater fire occurrence."

As she spoke, newly ignited blazes raced through the conifer forests of Evenkiya, a summer fishing and hunting region north of Krasnoyarsk.

The Sukachev institute's satellite data show that more than 29 million acres — an area the size of Pennsylvania — have been burned in Russia already this year. Orbiting cameras see a red-and-green checkerboard in Siberia, of "hotspots" among endless evergreens.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070731191203.htm

jjauregui, let me gently suggest that the Idso family and their CO2Science site might not be the best source for climate science.

As always, I recommend that people educate themselves about the basic science before throwing stones.

Good Lord, you are a troll, aren't you?

You have a problem with references that go back to the 1980's. Does that line of reasoning also apply to Hubbert's work that goes back to the 1950"s?

Yes.

I am much more interested in actual figures of oil production from 1955 to 2008, than I am in Hubbert's speculation about oil production from 1955.

Actual data is always better than speculation, models and forecasts. Of course, we can't always wait for actual data; I don't need to jump off a cliff to gather data on exactly how much it'll hurt me when I hit the ground.

Nor do I need to burn all the world's fossil fuels, cut down all the forests, graze cattle on the pasture after the forests, and pour artificial fertiliser on them all and CFCs into the atmosphere to know that it'll hurt the Earth.

Actual data is always better than speculation, models and forecasts.

So this applies to the GCM's also, and to the GW/CC computer simulations that are predicated on these GCM's?

Crackpot science and BS really don't advance the discussion.

So you are saying that the sun, which provides 99.999 percent of the energy driving earth's short term weather and long term climate, is not a good place to investigate as a source of what little global warming we have experienced over the past several decades? Furthermore, you are saying a trace gas, which composes and infintesimal 4 one hundredths of 1 percent of the atmoshphere, is the principal benefactor responsible for increasing the length of our growing seasons. Is that correct?

MP3 players

What is wrong with an MP3 player so one can listen to all the various podcasts to learn more about the world?

I don't think "coal" and "renewables" is an either/or option.

The objective of the Kyoto Protocol and its umbrella agreement, the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change, have been “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Agreement on how big a change constitutes “dangerous interference” has been difficult and protracted. A common view (e.g. the European Union ) is that this point will be reached when the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations reach somewhere between 450 and 550 ppm Co2e, by which point some predict the earth will have warmed about 2 C. Hansen's group has said that just burning the rest of the world’s recoverable oil and gas would raise CO2e almost to this point, leaving no room for emissions from other fuels such as coal.

"Agreement on how big a change constitutes “dangerous interference” has been difficult and protracted."

This is true primarily because of political issues. The science is quite clear that we started to get into serious trouble once atmospheric CO2 exceeded 300 ppm. Good analyses of the science are available at www.carbonequity.info.

The main post of this thread is...what is the nicest thing I can say--deeply, deeply disappointing.

Apparently TOD is now a major mouthpiece for disinformation about GW.

OK, I'll stop being nice. Even as a disinformation piece, this is truly a pathetic attempt to muddy the waters. Couldn't the author at least have made some attempt at originality? Cherry picking the outlier year of 1998 and basing a theory of global cooling on that has been done to death and has been clearly and repeatedly shown to be stupid.

But the post fits completely into the modus operandi of the denialists--repeating endlessly cherry-picked and irrelevant data no matter how many times the enormous flaws in the argument have been pointed out.

This post is essentially an insult to the intelligence of the many bright people who frequent this forum.

Shame on you for so degrading such an important location for the exchange of ideas by presenting such utterly worthless (and to the extent that it confuses people about this deadly serious issue, very dangerous) tripe. It snows in the Himalayas!!!??? Are you kidding us?

What in the name of Sam Hill does weather in any particular location at any particular time have to do with the global climate catastrophe that is upon us, that has been well documented by hundreds of peer reviewed studies, and that has been accepted to be driven by human behavior--primarily the burning of fossil fuels--by every establishes scientific body that has weighed in on it?

The post goes beyond sad or pathetic. It is thoroughly disgusting. Below contempt is a phrase that comes to mind.

If I am banished from this site for this post, I will not be saddened a bit.

Well actually your comment merely illustrates the too frequent answer that is given when questions on climate change arise. Rather than discuss the facts cited, an ad hominem attack, such as yours is launched.

What perhaps you fail to recognize is that, by failing to discuss the facts cited, but rather instead seeking to address my intelligence etc you are attempting to change the subject. In so doing you are admitting to a weakness in your case since it suggests that you cannot argue the facts, but must instead attack personalities in order to seek to prevail.

It doesn't really need a detailed critique, because it's simply using details to try to obscure the general trend. Saying that it's snowing more in the Himalayas this year therefore we may not see much global warming is like saying that the Iraqis are pumping more oil from around Kirkuk this year therefore we may not see peak oil after all.

Presenting a temperature graph showing an undulating plateau of temperatures from 1998 to 2008 and then saying that therefore there's no global warming is like presenting a graph of world oil production with an undulating plateau from 2003-2008 and saying that therefore there's no peak oil.

And if it's wrong to "attack personalities", then I wonder about your own comment,

Now some of these shortfalls are beginning to be noticed on an increasing scale, although to quote Upton Sinclair (from the trailer to “An Inconvenient Truth”), “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” And there are a lot of folks these days who have salaries that are tied in some way to the perception of global warming.

So if I argue that humans are causing climate change, it's only because I want cash? Well, can I then say that in arguing against it, it's because you want cash? What's your history, ever been employed by an oil company? Maybe you have some shares in an energy company which generates electricity with coal?

We don't know. So by your reasoning, we can just forget that we don't know and assume what's convenient for us: anyone who argues against me is just a shill.

Why is it that you can attack personalities, but people arguing against you can't?

Moving from one stable state to another is a chaotic process, possibly it would be more descriptive to use the term Climate Chaos rather than climate change. Temperatures I would expect to be chaotic and not point on predictive as you suggest in your thesis.

BTW Do you have any connections to interest in the coal or related industries, not that it has anything to do with all this, I am just curious? :)

No, no, you don't understand! If others have a cash interest in something, that invalidates what they say. If I have a cash interest in something, and you dare to point it out, then that is a personal attack and is wrong and evil and I can condemn you for it.

In other words, when I present facts, you must take those facts solely on their merits; when others present facts, you must not consider the facts but only who's saying them.

More simply put: me smart, you poopyhead.

Discuss the facts cited? Discuss the facts cited??!!

The only "facts" I see are that it snows in the Himalayas and that 1998 was a very warm year. From these you have decided that the considered judgment of every established scientific body in the world who have considered the issue of GW--who have all determined that AGW is very real and a very real concern--is hogwash.

This so so patently absurd, it does not credit any other response than open ridicule.

Either you believe these conclusions and so are very dim, or you don't believe them and you are consciously trying to confuse the unwary. I rather doubt the former, so I must assume the latter to be true. Such insincere intentional obfuscation is what is normally considered trolling.

Unfortunately, the trolls now seem to be running this forum rather than screening them from the site.

My only regret is that I fed you at all. I will do so no longer.

Best to all,
Dohboi

Yes, what he said!

You've cite several one off facts and then make assertions from that. I feel what you regard as personal attacks are peoples dismay and how you've collected then presented your data. The reference to the increased snowfall in Tibet is a classic example, you've turned a one off example into a trend. Several of the sources you use are highly questionable.

For example Glaciers in Alaska may be starting to grow again from the highly respected and peer reviewed Anchorage Daily News (sarcasm intended). The reference is from a paper the journalist starts quoting a scientist, then towards the end of the article the hack starts speculating and you use the speculation to support your argument!!

I'm seriously starting to wonder about a number of peak oil activists who seem determined to undermine the credibility of the PO movement by using extremely poor analysis and support for their arguments (in this case of embarassingly low quality - are you actually serious about that snowfall in the Himalayas bit?) and who insis that climate change and peak oil are fundamentally oppositional.

Realistically, an analysis of the available science on climate change and on peak oil suggests that there is more good, hard science on climate change. That doesn't mean peak oil is without merit - I obviously think it has enormous merit. But a scholarly observer who looked at the two, sorted out the evidence available for both, and considered it objectively would have every reason to believe that climate change was a well established fact, whereas there is still some room for argument on peak oil.

Given that reality, I think the increasingly shrill and badly reasoned anti-AGW analysis coming from some peak oil writers really does undermine the credibility of peak oil as a whole. I find it hard to imagine that anyone would say "oh, wait, they're waving the medieval warming period flag, thoroughly discredited - let's look at what they have to say about energy."

Any given thinker can and should have their own opinions. But I truly think that peak oil, already being relegated by urgent economic and environmental priorities to the background could be seriously undermined by people who insist on a AGW vs. PO analysis.

Sharon Astyk

Hi Sharon,

Exactly right, and well put.

I like each of the points you made.

It was the quality of information and analysis on TOD that alerted me to the issue of Peak Oil in the first place. Even the comments were carefully thought out and supported by fact based documentation. It was a presentation worth studying, so I did, and was convinced to the extent that I have no doubts about the actuality of Peak Oil. It wasn't the vehemence or eloquence that did the trick. It was the science.

I believe we all understand that the case for peak oil is a work in progress, with work still needed on the details of timing, consequences, and mitigation... but that there is no good to be gained from challenging the essential fact that we are facing Peak Oil.

Same goes for Climate Change, or more specifically Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).

We need The oil Drum because no one else is doing what it has done... but the only TOD that will do us much good is one that maintains its original high standards of scientific inquiry. No one is well served by "shrill and badly reasoned" arguments on any issue.

Surely AGW has been established beyond reasonable doubt. Its science and knowledge base are more mature because more scientists, with larger budgets have studied it over a longer period. Thus it is even more true that there is no good to be gained from challenging the essential fact that we are facing AGW.

Maybe all of the sarcastic put-downs, ad hominem argument and disingenuous practices (like cherry picking and quack science) can be chalked up to ignorance, human passions and hurt feelings... or perhaps there are more sinister motives behind the insinuation that Peak Oil and AGW are in some way antithetical to each other. It doesn't matter because there is a one-size-fits-all solution.

Insist upon sound reasoning, solid evidence and good math skills. That goes for both articles and comments. Nothing stops nonsense as effectively as dispassionately dismantling it in public, point by excruciating point.

Sure am glad to see you over here on the Oil Drum.

"Realistically, an analysis of the available science on climate change and on peak oil suggests that there is more good, hard science on climate change. ... there is still some room for argument on peak oil."

Hard to believe considering how many people use oil, but I really tend to agree with this. It is almost as if there is no challenge for any scientist to examine peak oil, yet everyone wants to sudy climate change. Quite perplexing, IMO.

The entire AGW case is based on computer simulations that cannot replicate past variations in the planet's average temperature over time. Until they can do that, the simulations are largely meaningless. To help the "cause", Prof. Man's tried hard to sweep past variations under the rug with his "Hockey Stick" graphic. It didn't work. There is a lot of talk here about what constitutes a climate time horizon. I suggest all concerned address the time horizon that includes periods known by such names as Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period and the like. Until these types of temperature varitions can explained and replicated in operational climate models, the AGW case is dead in the water. How could it be otherwise?

The entire AGW case is based on computer simulations that cannot replicate past variations in the planet's average temperature over time.

How does making completely false statements advance your cause? A rewrite for accuracy:

The AGW case is based on observations and measurement of natural phenomena which are then used to build computer simulations that quite successfully replicate past variations in the planet's average temperature over time, though not perfectly (as expected), and particularly cannot be used to predict some specific weather phenomenon, oscillations, etc., but the models are improving all the time.

I refuse to accept any of the evidence until weather can be perfectly replicated by these models.

Hi ccpo,

Yes, that's the ticket. Hold commentator's feet to the fire with dignity and respect.

Poor summary. Try again.

"The entire AGW case is based on computer simulations that cannot replicate past variations in the planet's average temperature over time. Until they can do that, the simulations are largely meaningless."

You, my friend, do not understand probability.

More importantly, he doesn't seem to understand google searches!

Here we see that models with only natural or only anthropogenic forcings are not a good match to observations, but when the two are combined it's a good match - from 1850 till 2000.

"These results show that the forcings included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not exclude the possibility that other forcings may also have contributed."

If I eat a big greasy burger and smoke a packet of cigarettes every day, the doctor cannot tell me for certain whether I'll get lung or heart disease, still less the exact day on which I'll drop dead. But the doctor can say that it seems very likely that I'll be better off without the greasy burger and smokes than with them. Of course I could wait until the doctor's model of my body is perfected, and wait for the first chest twinges to confirm it, but...

Our understanding of the way the climate works is like our understanding of the human body. It's not enough to make precise predictions, but is enough to make general recommendations.

The general recommendations made to avoid catastrophic climate change happen to be things which we're going to have to do anyway - we'll have to use less fossil fuels once they peak - or which are otherwise good things to do - reforesting landscapes, eating less meat, removing power sources which emit soot and carcinogens, reducing our imports which send money to people who fund terrorists, etc.

Really, there are dozens of reasons to do these various things. Even if one of those reasons turns out to be all a conspiracy to get grant money or something, the other reasons remain.

A tenner says he doesn't respond to my link above. That's the denialist way.

"You said X! You can't prove X!"
"Here's proof: [source]"
"You said Y! You can't prove Y!"
"Um, what about X? Do you have contrary evidence, or do you concede X is true?"
"...."
"Well?"
"What about Y? You have no answer!"
"This is pointless."
"See? It's all a conspiracy!"

Right, some of these people seem to expect to match every fluctuating signal as well.

The entire AGW case is based on computer simulations that cannot replicate past variations in the planet's average temperature over time.

That's simply false. The data from the annual summer ice melt and from Satellite observations of the same from (Landsat) radar sensors showing the level of ice decreasing each summer, but in 2007 it plunged by around 25% making the downward trend even lower. In addition in field observations show the average age of the sea ice has gone from 3 to 5 years to just 1 year old and the overall thickness of the ice has also decreased.

There is also a vast amount of other data, from melting glaciers and ice core data and so forth.

The entire AGW case is based on computer simulations that cannot replicate past variations in the planet's average temperature over time.

The entire AGW case is based on principles of thermodynamics that have been well understood for 150 years.

Computer simulations based on these principles capture past climate dynamics remarkably well.

Indeed, that is a consistent problem I noticed. People seem to be unable to hold in their heads more than one crisis affecting Earth.

Thus you find this either or mentality everywhere. You even see it in sub problems and a good example is the way, Gail supports or at least seems to think we need to use the coal.

The fact is that we do have:
1) global warming
2) peak oil
3) fresh water problems + pollution
4) over population
5) major ecological crisis (i.e 6th extinction)
6) financial crisis (fiat money etc)
7) social justice and lack of a real democracy everywhere
8) AOB

The recent talk here on TOD in recent months was that all the oil price rise was solely due to Peak Oil even though there was obviously some speculation going on. And finance people saw it as 100% speculation and not peak oil related.

People really need to break this awful habit. It is time all these problems were integrated.

"Rather than discuss the facts cited, an ad hominem attack, such as yours is launched."

You opened the door on that one.

And there are a lot of folks these days who have salaries that are tied in some way to the perception of global warming.

Most denialist writings contain hints about a conspiracy of scientists pushing an "AGW agenda", and yours is no exception.

That and deniers claiming to be the real scientists really get up my nose.

Gail,

I consistently like your posts, except for your early comments on CO2 and its relation to Global Warming. It's refreshing to see you considering other possibilities. Fifteens years ago I was a proponent of AGW. After just a bit of self-study and research, I came to the conclusion it was a tempest in a teapot, driven less by objective reality than by internal government research grant preferences. With a background in physics, I found Rhodes Fairbridge's work in "solar inertial motion" most intriguing, and intellectually satisfying as a principal driver, but not the only driver, of climate change on all planets, not just earth. There are other significant players, but CO2 is not one of them. CO2 is the proxy politicans are using to tie what little, and beneficial, warming we've experienced to human behavior and thus create a mandate for draconian political and economic action. The greater threat is PeakOil in the face of Peak Warming, and no one is discussing that scenario at all --- though it is the most likely.

So, you're claiming that planetary climates are sensitive to something called "solar inertial motion," but insensitive to atmospheric CO2 fluctuations.

Am I understanding you correctly?

Sensitivity? Let's talk sensitivity. Energy from the sun drives the earth's weather and climate. The sun provides virtually 100% of earth's energy budget. Two fluids, water and atmosphere, modulate our weather and climate by storing and transporting the energy received by the sun. Without the sun, or atmosphere, the earth would be frozen solid. The atmosphere is composed of 79% nitrogen, 20% oxygen and 1% trace gases. Carbon dioxide is a trace gas. It's composes four one-hundredths of one percent (.04%), or about 385 parts per million, of the earth's atmosphere, e.g. roughly equivalent to the wax on your kitchen linoleum compared to the distance from floor to ceiling. Here's the question. Is 1 degree F of warming most likely caused by a small variation in solar output, which provides ~100% of the earth's energy, or a large variation (35% increase) of a trace gas such as carbon dioxide? By the way, water vapor has ten times the beneficial global warming effect as carbon dioxide. Even with the sun, earth would be frozen solid if there was no water vapor, the truly big global warming player. Finally, regardless of Professor Michael Mann's "Hockey Stick" graphic used by the IPCC, the fact remains that earth's mean temperature varies from 1 to 2 degrees C over time. What explains that? Certainly not variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide, anthropogenically driven or not. Could it be variations in solar activity? And, the next question, what drives variations in solar activity? Those proposing alternative energy sources, such as solar, should be able to talk to these questions, since, at least as an alternative energy source (if nothing else), the sun is a big deal. Ockham's razor pertains. Where would you look for the source of a 1 degree F variation in the earth's average temperature, the sun or a trace gas, which together with the sun happens to be essential to photosynthesis?

Your point may be valid, but your reply is argumentative in tone rather than balanced.

I am continually distressed by the human tendancy to look for ONE cause. Reality isn't like that. Mutiple causes act together. In the real world things have a dozen causes, not one.

Obviously most warming is due to water vapour.
Obviously adding CO2 to the atmosphere has SOME warming effect.
The question is, how much of the observed warming effect is due to CO2? Is it enough to matter.

Not suprisingly a lot of work has been done on this question. It is generally agreed that a doubling of CO2 will lead to a 1.2 degree rise in global temperatures if
1) There are no positive or negative feedback loops.
2) There are no clouds (assume eternal clear skies).

The big debate is about the role of feedback loops and water vapour. Some argue that clouds dramatically reduce the CO2 attributed warming effect due to bandwidth saturation. Others expect positive feedback loops to exagerate the base warming effect (and don't expect clouds to dampen it significantly.)

Who has the more accurate model is anyones guess. My guess is that at this stage everyone is wrong - that is, we don't understand how to model water vapour, and we don't understand the feedback loops either.

Any attempt to "explain" recent fluctuations in temperature is a waste of time since the recent rises are only slightly larger than the error bars, and climate has varied significantly over the last 1000 years.

Given the thermal lag effect of the worlds oceans, we may have already caused significant warming, but it won't show up for another 200 years. Short term (decadal) variations in temperature are most likely due to the interplay of ocean current cycles in the Atlantic and Pacific.

The dramatic rise in temperature between 1980 and 1998 is TOO SUDDEN to be caused by human activity, given the thermal lag in oceans. Likewise the switch to a temperature plateau between 1998 and 2008 say NOTHING about long term trends or human impacts.

Conclusion: Everyone is wrong. We don't have reliable data, we can't model shit, and given the ocean's thermal lag we won't see any statistically significant change until we have already baked it in.

We're like theologians arguing over angels on a pinhead.

Argumentative? Please elaborate. It reads like basic reason and common sense to me.

Is 1 degree F of warming most likely caused by a small variation in solar output, which provides ~100% of the earth's energy, or a large variation (35% increase) of a trace gas such as carbon dioxide?

Over the last century? Carbon dioxide.

Earth's mean temperature varies from 1 to 2 degrees C over time.

And by much larger quantities -- during the PETM, temp rose 6 degrees over a few thousand years.

What explains that? Certainly not variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide, anthropogenically driven or not.

Carbon dioxide.

Now a question for you: What explains the nearly uniform 737K surface temperature of Venus -- "solar inertia phlogiston" or CO2?

Would you mind pointing us to the reliable historical data for:

the nearly uniform 737K surface temperature of Venus

Not that I'm arguing in any direction here but a bit of rigor is necessary when discussing such complex issues. There is no reliable data for the atmospheric conditions on other planets (let alone in the last 100 000 years or any other planetary-time-scale you choose), so saying that the sun doesn't make Venus' temperature oscillate on a planetary time-scale is not a very rigorous statement. No one knows.

With respect to the main article I think the point "Heading Out" is trying to make is more about how society accepts or rejects ideas and not so much about "debunking climate change". Many people have accepted blindly supposed "facts" about climate change, and they may well change their beliefs when other trends surface.

To any trained scientist it should be clear that much of the press about climate change is not presented in a scientific way.

You will read on many articles "there is 90% probability that the warming is man made" ... What? Where did they get that number from? Such numbers are obviously meaningless out of context. A rigorous presentation would run something like...

* We inferred this historical temperature record (with hypothesis (a), (b), (c) ... about the reliability of measures, ice cores, indirect methods etc)
* We studied this historical CO2 concentration (with hypothesis (1),(2) about this and that)
* We estimated man made C02 and disregarded all these factors
* There may be lots of factors we don't know about.

We ran a simulation (assuming lots of simplifications so that our computers could run it) and 10% of the times we got roughly the same climate as we experience today even without human intervention.

Now even if we don't fully understand it and may be completely wrong our basic understanding signals danger and we should hedge against it. But science can be proven wrong. And you have to make your business/life decision with partial information, sorry.

Examples like the "90% probability" or the "all scientists in the IPCC agree" are too often quoted. This gives the wrong impression about science. Nothing is said of assumptions (I suspect 1st because people under-estimate the readers and 2nd because the journalists are too afraid to go into details and get it wrong (and can't be bothered to ask a few scientists)).

Generally I recommend critical analysis, humility about what science can or can't predict ... and then common sense... you don't need certainty about climate change or peak-oil to have reasons to change the way the world is run.

There is no reliable data for the atmospheric conditions on other planets.

We have complete soundings, from the stratosphere to the surface, for Venus, Mars, and Titan; we even have sounding data for Jupiter.

so saying that the sun doesn't make Venus' temperature oscillate on a planetary time-scale is not a very rigorous statement

But we can say, with complete certainty, that Venus's temperature has not changed in a detectable way for the decades it has been under IR and microwave observation. It is in thermal equilibrium.

Assuming that the surface temperature of Venus depends only on the total solar irradiance (TSI), atmospheric chemistry, and cloud cover, we successfully predict the planet's surface temperature. No solar variation is required.

The same is true for Mars, Earth, and Titan.

Climate science is quite general and has been successfully applied to a wide range of planetary atmospheres, including extrasolar worlds.

Barrett,

Sorry, I didn't make my point very clearly. First I have no idea about what role the sun might play in our atmosphere's cycles. But after 10 years doing physics I just thing it's easy to make mistakes. I make them everyday studying things for which we have 100 years of evidence (quantum physics) and there are many unsolved questions. I'm just saying tossing around a question doesn't disprove anything.

Now there are three questions which got confused:

* Short term variability of planetary atmospheres (seasonal or dayly)
* Long term (in geological time-scales) variability.
* What we know and what we infer.

So,
1) We have complete soundings, from the stratosphere to the surface, for Venus, Mars, and Titan; we even have sounding data for Jupiter.

I'd be happy to see it but it's not in the 1000 years time-scale. We have data (of a few satellites, not on every corner of venus' surface, atmosphere, etc) that tells us about the seasonal and dayly variation. Because the atmosphere is so rich in CO2 (about 96%) it has a great green-house effect and shows little seasonal variation. Agreed.

What does that tell us about the possible role of the sun in our atmosphere's cycles: not much. It just says in other planets CO2 has a green-house effect and so probably also in a less important way on earth. But it doesn't disprove anything about the sun.

Assuming that the surface temperature of Venus depends only on the total solar irradiance (TSI), atmospheric chemistry, and cloud cover, we successfully predict the planet's surface temperature. No solar variation is required.

Again, we predict some very coarse numbers (which is already an amazing feat). But pretending we know how the climate of venus works on a timescale of hundreds of years is very pretentious.
The data we have is at most from 50 years or so ... insignificant for most planetary processes, but very relevant for seasonal and dayly variation.

Again, we predict some very coarse numbers (which is already an amazing feat).

Actually, we predict surprisingly precise numbers from basic climate science. For example, under the "gray gas" assumption, we get within 1K of the equilibrium temperatures for Mars and Earth. Venus is more problematic because of its cloud deck, and treating it correctly requires some more physics.

But pretending we know how the climate of Venus works on a timescale of hundreds of years is very pretentious.

Not at all. We're computing the equilibrium temperature, and there's a lot of evidence that things haven't changed on Venus in a very long time. We can say with high confidence that Venus is in radiative equilibrium with space.

Dear Barrett.
Are you absoloutly sure about your statement regarding the Martian Atmosphere?
rgds
Dropstone

Yup.

Dear Barrett,
So the similar increase in Martian Surface Temperature is due to what?

rgds
dropstone

Please share your peer reviewed material on the increase in Martian surface temperature.

Dust storms -- but it's a decrease in temperature, relative to Viking data. The reduction in size of the South Polar Cap is due to an interesting regional climate instability, not global warming or changes in TSI.

"Nearly uniform" means it varies, correct? Otherwise it would be perfectly uniform. It is not. What explains this variation? There is a signature response for each planet. What is the input, overtime, which generates that response? If GCM's for the earth were correct, they could shed some light on past variation in earth's temperature dynamics. They have not and they cannot, given the underlying model assumptions.

If GCM's for the earth were correct, they could shed some light on past variation in earth's temperature dynamics. They have not and they cannot, given the underlying model assumptions.

Pray tell, which "underlying model assumptions" are not correct?

Also, please tell us how you account for Venus's 737K temperature. Hint: It's not because Venus is closer to the sun.

YES!!! I wish I could relay the point as eloquently as you.