The 787 is way behind schedule with first test flight planned for beginning of this year and still has not flown. Airlines are cancelling orders as NW Air (now Delta) is reducing its order for the 787 because it is too expensive on a per seat basis. Read this yesterday, but cannot find the link.
I doubt US airlines will have capital to invest in buying many 787's unless the Feds pick up the tab, which is unlikely. The investment banks are maxed out and Boeing may not be able to take on more debt to finance these for the airlines. With oil at $50 or less per barrel I would be surprised to see the non US airlines fulfill all the orders for the 787 as international travel dwindles. Look at British Airways trying to merge with Qantas in an effort to regain financial strength. Airlines are feeling recession more than most industries (especially those foreign ones financed by oil revenues that have sunk by 60%) and first thing to go will be orders for new planes IMO.

One example of this is American Airlines is pulling in deliveries of its 47 new 737-800's from 2016 to 2009 to replace a portion of its fleet of aging MD-80s. Their ultimate goal is to improve their fuel efficiency by 20% over the next 12 years. Although the 737-800 is a much better aircraft in many ways, I will miss the nice roomy seats and 2-3 seating configuration (compared to 3-3 for the 737) of the MD-80.

Hello Wiseco,

'Wild & Crazy' Speculation?

All these planes parked in the desert will be a great future resource of light, hi-tech metals, and other items ideally suited for recycling into the Nike/Tiger Woods signature brand of postPeak 'Tiger Tools':

1. Hi-tech bicycles, cargo-tricycles, and E-bikes of various shapes & sizes.

2. Light, but very strong and long lasting, human-scaled, narrow-gauge locos & railcars [passenger & container freight] much improved than even this beauty:

http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train2.jpg
http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train1.jpg

3. Lightweight, but very durable farming [see kite-powered manure surfboard posting] and gardening hand-tools including many different wheelbarrow versions. Carbon-fiber and titanium scythes?

4. Again, lightweight & rugged, narrow-gauge SpiderWebBikes with quickly attachable/detachable, rechargeable 'Tiger-Spiders' to assist the pedaler up a brutal incline.

4. All of the above as the 'ribcages' to support the standard-gauge 'spine & limbs' buildout of Alan Drake's RR & TOD ideas.

Tiger really should hire me as his postPeak financial advisor as golfing goes belly up. :)

Consider Leanan's toplink on solar assist for Vacaville:

http://www.sacbee.com/129/story/1441106.html

If one mentally extrapolates this trend out: Tiger plowing up high-end golf resorts/hotels/communities should help keep them viable as the former 18,36,54-hole course layouts will now provide fresh foodstuffs so that they can continue to sell 5-course meals, fancy wines, and have fresh flowers in the lobby.

Tiger [or those working for him], as Champion-certified Master Gardeners could earn a good living personally leading resort guests through the flowers & herbs, grapefields, veggie plots, the winery, and so on. The guests, instead of golfing, would have their fun collecting the stuff that the chef would prepare for their dinner later that night, powered by solar devices on the resort roofs, animal sheds, winery roof, etc. IMO, walking or pedaling away, with a picnic of wine, bread, and cheese in a flower garden, sure beats chasing a little white ball.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Splat.

Hi Mike,

Thanks and can you possibly clarify:

1) Are you saying that:

"If these small contraction are all thats required to drop the price of oil then the economy should be able to readily accommodate peak oil."

is substantially different than

"Demand could very well have dipped to the point that supply was ample or far more probable the upheaval in the monetary system wiped out oil prices along with every other commodity and basically every single asset class."

In other words, are you saying that there is something about "the upheaval in the monetary system" that had effects above and beyond the "small contractions" (small contractions due to the price run-up, you mean)?

So, that the price volatility, such as that predicted by Deffeyes, is really not a bad thing, necessarily?

So, we don't really need a steady (unidirectional), presumably slow, rise in prices as the optimal price scenario for peak mitigation?

(Gosh, this sounds almost optmistic. :))

2) Could you possibly re-state, expand and/or explain this sentence further?

"If over the next few months the world continues to be well supplied with oil and the price remains low then we need to really rethink how peak oil will effect us and what we need to do to mitigate it."

Now memmel, a super doomer, is predicting $30 oil and saying that peak oil may not be a problem after all. I guess the much reviled Yergin is finally having the last laugh!

EDIT: Since the last oil bull appears to have thrown in the proverbial towel, maybe this is the bottom and it is time to invest in oil again.

If over the next few months the world continues to be well supplied with oil and the price remains low then we need to really rethink how peak oil will effect us and what we need to do to mitigate it.

Mike, this really seems like a stretch to me. Let's say there's a net export decline rate of even a very conservative 3%...you're saying the world economy will accommodate 10 consecutive years of that without the financial system entering a death spiral? 30% less oil to the importing countries in ten years?

I think you're expecting a very short term phenomenon to last much longer than is reasonable.