What stroke me most in the recent Petroleum Status Reports is the amount of jet fuel supplied to market - down 17.7% from last year!

It looks like Americans are mostly cutting back on flying instead of driving, compared to that gasoline demand is down only 2.8%. I'm wondering what is going on with the airlines right now and how are they holding up amidst such a demand drop; I would speculate that the recent oil price lows are somehow offsetting their losses but what happens if oil rebounds again, by, say next summer?

Basically, airlines are consolidating (e.g. NorthWest and Delta) and cutting back on flights to smaller markets. The age of permagrowth is over; we'll see a lot of things now going in reverse. Airports in smaller cities may eventually close down. I read somewhere that there was a cutback of 11% to 12% in flights since last year; perhaps the remaining reduction in fuel comes from more efficient ways of flying the aircraft (less idling on the ground, longer glides in to landing).

Another effect is flying newer, more fuel efficient a/c.

Vague memory says that a 737-300 uses 16% more fuel than a 737-700 with winglets (same # of seats in both, the -700 replaced the -300 in a major redesign).

737-200s, DC-10s, L-1011s and several more older, fuel guzzling types are gone from US fleets. The next generation is beginning to retire as well.

Best Hopes for the 787,

Alan

The 787 is way behind schedule with first test flight planned for beginning of this year and still has not flown. Airlines are cancelling orders as NW Air (now Delta) is reducing its order for the 787 because it is too expensive on a per seat basis. Read this yesterday, but cannot find the link.
I doubt US airlines will have capital to invest in buying many 787's unless the Feds pick up the tab, which is unlikely. The investment banks are maxed out and Boeing may not be able to take on more debt to finance these for the airlines. With oil at $50 or less per barrel I would be surprised to see the non US airlines fulfill all the orders for the 787 as international travel dwindles. Look at British Airways trying to merge with Qantas in an effort to regain financial strength. Airlines are feeling recession more than most industries (especially those foreign ones financed by oil revenues that have sunk by 60%) and first thing to go will be orders for new planes IMO.

Anyone know what the airline experiance was in the 70s when prices went up 10x?

Is this 'blueprint' for what might happen in the coming decades but on a much larger scale?

Regards, Nick.

One example of this is American Airlines is pulling in deliveries of its 47 new 737-800's from 2016 to 2009 to replace a portion of its fleet of aging MD-80s. Their ultimate goal is to improve their fuel efficiency by 20% over the next 12 years. Although the 737-800 is a much better aircraft in many ways, I will miss the nice roomy seats and 2-3 seating configuration (compared to 3-3 for the 737) of the MD-80.

The airlines parked the equivalent of the entire Northwest Airlines fleet in Arizona. Gives new meaning to "Twilight in the Desert".

Hello Wiseco,

'Wild & Crazy' Speculation?

All these planes parked in the desert will be a great future resource of light, hi-tech metals, and other items ideally suited for recycling into the Nike/Tiger Woods signature brand of postPeak 'Tiger Tools':

1. Hi-tech bicycles, cargo-tricycles, and E-bikes of various shapes & sizes.

2. Light, but very strong and long lasting, human-scaled, narrow-gauge locos & railcars [passenger & container freight] much improved than even this beauty:

http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train2.jpg
http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train1.jpg

3. Lightweight, but very durable farming [see kite-powered manure surfboard posting] and gardening hand-tools including many different wheelbarrow versions. Carbon-fiber and titanium scythes?

4. Again, lightweight & rugged, narrow-gauge SpiderWebBikes with quickly attachable/detachable, rechargeable 'Tiger-Spiders' to assist the pedaler up a brutal incline.

4. All of the above as the 'ribcages' to support the standard-gauge 'spine & limbs' buildout of Alan Drake's RR & TOD ideas.

Tiger really should hire me as his postPeak financial advisor as golfing goes belly up. :)

Consider Leanan's toplink on solar assist for Vacaville:

http://www.sacbee.com/129/story/1441106.html

If one mentally extrapolates this trend out: Tiger plowing up high-end golf resorts/hotels/communities should help keep them viable as the former 18,36,54-hole course layouts will now provide fresh foodstuffs so that they can continue to sell 5-course meals, fancy wines, and have fresh flowers in the lobby.

Tiger [or those working for him], as Champion-certified Master Gardeners could earn a good living personally leading resort guests through the flowers & herbs, grapefields, veggie plots, the winery, and so on. The guests, instead of golfing, would have their fun collecting the stuff that the chef would prepare for their dinner later that night, powered by solar devices on the resort roofs, animal sheds, winery roof, etc. IMO, walking or pedaling away, with a picnic of wine, bread, and cheese in a flower garden, sure beats chasing a little white ball.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

You might not be that far off. I understand that parts from the never-flown Soviet space shuttle Buran ended up being recycled into a hog feeder.

Hello WNC Observer,

If everyone on TOD has already emailed Tiger's website [please do if you haven't already]: I bet the Peak Outreach volume [80,000/month?] was sufficient that Nike and Tiger's managers got curious enough to read TOD, then search/download/copy every posting that has 'Tiger Woods' included. :)

Thus, they are probably now working out plans to benefit both themselves and Tiger financially postPeak [and I will probably never see a cent]. Plagiarizing my ideas may prove extremely profitable for some--such is life. Example: I vaguely recall some TODer making 7,000% in a month off one of my NPK postings.

Renting a bedroom in the middle of countless asphalt acres in the center of North America's largest desert doesn't strike me as the best long-term plan--I may eventually have to 'Fleam' too.

N0, no, the contrary is true:
As you can see on the image above
even more people people will fly -
however not in a plane,
but off the cliff...

Splat.