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242 comments on DrumBeat: December 3, 2008
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242 comments on DrumBeat: December 3, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
theantidoomer -
I can hardly think of anything more certainly doomed to failure than having the US government buy up the US auto companies in order to make the 'right' kind of cars.
First off, they would piss away countless billions just studying the problem. Then the inevitable pork train would start rolling, then all sorts of politically well-connected contractors and subcontractors would pop up like mushrooms to consume all the pork, then after a few years you might see some half-assed design-by-committee vehicle finally hit the road, probably at a (true) cost that would be twice as high as if done by private enterprise.
How many major undertakings that the US government has embarked upon have ever been anything close to being a financial success and have not been vastly behind schedule and vastly over budget? Just look at the so-called 'defense industry' (which in reality is a quasi-government enterprise) and how many of its weapon systems turned out to be twice or thrice as costly as originally projected.
Now, I'm hardly saying that the US auto industry has been doing a good job ... they haven't. But the US government can only do worse, far worse.
Any plan made now will undoubtedly be based on a return of the US motor industry, and the European and Japanese ones for that matter, to 'normal', ie producing 16 million cars or so a year in the US alone.
As many of you are aware, I support EV cars, but it is quite clear that there is no way that we can ramp up immediately to anything like that volume.
The US plan then will be to move towards building many millions of small, European style cars with better fuel economy.
It seems unlikely that anything like that number of cars will be affordable.
By 2012 or so when EV cars become available in rather greater quantities, although of course not in the tens of millions, it seems unlikely that more than a fifth or so of present production will still be running.
Joule,
I regret the rating system only allows me to give you a +1. Otherwise your would get much higher from me! My sentiments exactly. I just saw Denninger's rant for the morning. The monstrous actions with AIG is outrageous. And to expect these same crooks to take over the Auto Industry? I am a hard core fast crash doomer and getting the government to take over things is the fast way to achieve a quick hard crash.
Please note the captain has turned on the fasten seat belt sign. Please put away any laptop computers or electronic devices and return your seats to the upright position.
Yeah but the cockpit door is ajar and it is empty and we're flying along on auto pilot... Btw wasn't that the pilot and co-pilot that just bailed out (no pun intended) of the back of the plane with their parachutes on?
No worries, the new crew will be along shortly, they're riding in the fuel tanker that's flying along behind us and they'll be sliding down the refueling hose to take their place at the controls, soon.
Unfortunately there are these uncharted peaks dead ahead...it's just not the best time to hit heavy turbulence. Damn looks like we're out of air sickness bags too.
Instead of the Feds running the U.S. auto industry with a mandate to accelerate the production of next generation Hybrids, and later EVs, why not take NASA out of the space business and focus their efforts on developing the technology the auto industry desperately needs. There is a hell of a lot of talent there.
I would suggest the 'defense industry' is a huge success. At least for those involved. Two or three times over budget? Even better. A missile defense system that doesn't work? What's the definition of "working system"? If there are no missiles in the silos - or paper crete missiles - that works just fine. Bill'em Danno.
The concept of "saving the car industry" is, in and of itself, a death march. Wrong paradigm. Luckily, one won't have to make that case on resource arguments; it will be as simple as no one will be able to buy them.
cfm in Gray, ME
"I would suggest the Defense Industry is a huge success"..??????
You're joking, right?
If not, that is one of the most insane statements I have yet to hear on this web sight.
Citizen... Without a well funded defense industry, we would not have been able to train and equip Osama bin Laden's allies and we wouldn't be able to invade Iraq like we did in 2003. Not to mention things like Hiroshima and Nagasaki- all the
soldierscivilians that were killed (about 250,000). Now, who wouldn't support an industry like that? /sarcasm(In all fairness, we would not have been able to go into Afghanistan and destroy (mostly) the Taliban either without a defense industry, but this, like all other
warspolice actions, there are invariably civilian casualites of war).We didn't mostly destroy the Taliban. Its supporters have been in the Afghan senate for years and now all the talk in Kabul is of a negotiated settlement. Nor are the politicians who are supposedly Afghan democracy anyone we should be proud of supporting.
I stand corrected... And the Taliban were never my favorite group of people. I don't support destroying world heritage, nor do I support rape or dismemberment as acceptable forms of punishment.
i am of the persuasion that one deserves the government one wants, and by simply not uprising en-mass to dislodge them. they, or at least the majority of them, approved of such a government. It is of up most hubris to assume everyone yearns or desires one certain form of government.
The Taliban were not always the reviled lot that they have now become in the eyes of the US Govt. They were a vital cog in the wheel to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan. They were set up and trained by the ISI in Pakistan with the active connivance of the CIA (why do the dirty job of fighting when someone more ruthless will do it for you?).
I remember in Fahrenheit 9/11, Michael Moore shows a delegation of them coming to Texas sometime in 1997. I think the idea was to use Afghanistan for a Unocal pipeline from Central Asia.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/west_asia/37021.stm
http://www.mapcruzin.com/news/war111901a.htm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/htmlContent.jhtml?html=%2Farchive%2F1997%2F12...
The Taliban were in power from 1996 to 2001. Nothing was done by the US or NATO to get rid of them. They probably had some utility value then. As long as they were good dogs, fine. Never bite the hands that feed you.
Bush has come and gone - no sign of Osama yet. He was supposed to have been smoked out in 2001.
Srivathsa
Yes, they were in power, and nothing was done to get rid of them. Coincidentally, they had not yet sponsored a terror attack that killed 3,000 people in New York.
The real sponsor of terror is still in the White house for a few weeks. He has killed over 5 thousand Americans.
Should we invade?????
Be my guest. I'll sell popcorn.
the defense industry is one of the most succesful at looting the treasury, so on that basis successful. but the all time looting award will probably go to the banking industry. and that prediction has profound implications i.e. past peak looting.
Reading is a matter of interpretation, not just direct relation of fact.
US readers seem to have so little confidence in their government to run anything, and so much in their market led companies. Has anyone ever stopped to question if that little canard is anything but spin?
The $500 hammer was sold by those companies...
The $71-million(projected) US Capitol visitor center just opened yesterday.
The final cost was $621-million.
The government doesn't build these things - they put them out for bid. This famous "over budget" thing surely says more about the slimy corporations that knowingly low-ball their bids than it does about the government. Not that I love big government.
If you don't low ball your bid you won't get the contract.
Of course. It's a complete and utter collusion between govt and the corps. A handy-dandy term for this is "fascism". I just reject the argument that government always sucks and the "free" market (gag me) always works out great. It's this hideous blend that we are dealing with. The system is broken.
Now, I'm hardly saying that the US auto industry has been doing a good job ... they haven't. But the US government can only do worse, far worse
One thought:
Governments have elected officials up top... companies have appointed CEOs. Governments (supposedly) are accountable to their populations, who could demand various things like safety, or justice, or jobs etc....companies answer to shareholders, who demand profit. I'm not sure, but I think if you look at "job perks" as a variation of "bribes" the corruption might be similar.}
Not saying governments owning businesses is a good thing, but I'm not entirely convinced that its a bad thing either. Especially if the majority of people don't have the money to own shares but can vote.
It all might depend on how democratic the US government is.