Perhaps you should ask, how long until we become a third world country?

I wrote this last night.

Sabbath eve, December 5, 2008

The first real killing freeze will arrive tonight; we’ve had frosts but this is the real deal. All warm season plants that have not succumbed to the cold, will tonight. For those of you that live further north, you’d consider this a minor event. It’d suggest cold is cold.

I have to watch for compaction colic in weather like this. Horses sometimes don’t drink enough water with the first cold spell—lack of moisture and a belly full of dry hay stops them up. Colic kills horses.

On the way home from Belmont I saw a panhandler walking down the road with a backpack and a plastic five gallon bucket in hand. I wonder where he’s spending this night? How will he stay warm? Peraps I should ask, Will he stay warm?

The newspaper told me we graduated from extreme drought to exceptional drought; the drought map shows a red hole right in the middle of my state. Of course, I didn’t need the newspaper to tell me that.

Pastures are parched. I sold (and loaded) almost 500 bales of hay today at a dollar per bale less than the same hay sold for picked up out of the field earlier this year.

Why sell at that price?

With the drought there’s a shortage of hay. But there’s an overriding shortage of money that seems the more powerful force at the moment. Or perhaps it’s a shortage of confidence that has people hoarding money. Either way, price something too high, it will sit unsold.

Calves that brought $1.40 a pound six months ago now fetch 80 cents a pound. If not, then less. This Wednesday a full-sized horse sold for $50 through the sale ring. A burro sold for $3. The coggins test required to legally sell a horse or burro costs $35. Then there’s the sales commission…

The corn I didn’t want to sell for $5.70 a bushel (thinking the price too cheap) is now valued at $3.09; oil an abysmal $40 a barrel. I don’t know about anyone else—what I do know is that I cannot produce these products at these prices.

I am told the US spent less on Christmas gifts than any time in the last 35 years. That, without adjusting for inflation.

ABC’s Charlie Gibson said over 500,000 people officially lost their job last month on the evening news.

Of one thing I am sure. The real number is higher.

Tim Ervin, a horse trainer I know came by to pick up a check. He says Retama Park, the race track in San Antonio is a graveyard. A gallop hand he knows only got 9 rides for the week. Normally he’d gallop nine or more horses in a single day. Nine rides times $10/ride. The man earned $90. He is employed.

Trainers have horses that need to be galloped, but the horses’ owners have stopped paying their bills. Luxury items are the first to fail in a market like this.

The trainers are employed. They may not be getting paid but they are employed.

The stock market gained over two hundred points.

Nice to see our goddamned government cared enough to bail out Wall Street.

People ask, “What will happen?”

Well, I never would have guessed that oil would sell this cheap again, that grain would be this cheap. I am learning the law of supply and demand does not function in this economic climate. So I am not the one to ask.

But if you require an answer, here’s the best I can come up with:

Expect the unexpected.

These are strange and I fear, terrible times.

You want to be with members of your own tribe when the tribulations start. Moving to a developing country would be a huge mistake.

I've read this before, and as someone who has lived both in developed and developing countries, including the Philippines...I don't buy it.

I think many of these countries are in massive overshoot, and this will become more and more evident. Millions may starve in Africa next year; aid organizations are begging for aid, but the countries that usually step up are busy trying to prop up their banks and such. High fuel and fertilizer prices were a problem all over the world...but it was Bangladesh where farmers rioted, not the US or Canada. There were food riots in Africa, not in North America.

VK
Well, I live in Brazil, I would suggest its one of the best places to be once PO hits, but I am biased...

In many developing countries the share of people in the cities is already very large, and the skills to live off the land may go fairly quickly, still a lot more people would be somewhat comfortable around farms - I sincerely doubt, though, that farm communities or small farmers in developing countries know much about "methane generators and other practical applications". This does give room for hope in the sense that technology, even concepts taken relatively for granted can still make a huge difference if put together with the field knowledge of the rural population in many countries, there is a LOT of room to improve things, including food productivity, with education and relatively simple techniques.

(On a side note, the other day I saw on a TV program a guy who had developed a way to create solar water heaters from used milk/juice cartons and PET soda bottles, since in Brazil some 7% of electricity consumed is for heating water in electric showers - and an even bigger part of it constitutes goes into the peak demand loads, as Brazilians shower after coming back from work, or before going to work - the possibilities for saving are expressive...this is the kind of common sense applications that can have a big difference, here is a link with a video:
http://www.designatento.com/design_sustentavel/eco-design/aquecedor_sola...
(in Portuguese, but the diagrams are self explanatory...in the end you see a solar heater installed on top of an army barracks, 1800 bottles for a company of 50 soldiers!)

Besides this lower expectations and ability to "make do" with less while still feeling satisfied, what many developing countries have going for them (even more affluent ones like mine) is less of a propensity for waste and frivolous buying. This is another reason for hope, most of the hard core survivalist types I read from on TOD and other sites sometimes seem to forget that industrial societies have a LOT of "fat to burn" before receding back to the dark Ages, way before we are back to the Quest for fire, we will have abandoned most of the crap that people buy on late night shows in favor or more common sense consumption. Including a pet peeve of mine: "the apple corer". Apologies if I've offended someone but "what are people thinking!!??", its called a knife, and it takes 3 moves to core an apple...or just use your teeth to eat around the core! just to think on the amount of energy used on the steal blades that have one single, meaningless use drives me nuts.

Brazil is a country with nearly 200 million people and of a size larger than the continental US, still, according to a Brazilian magazine- this sounds a little overblown to me, but it is a pretty reputable magazine, so I'll take at face value - American consumption of electricity JUST TO RUN AIR CONDITIONING is superior to the total Brazilian electricity consumption. This lower electricity consumption allows Brasil to have a share of renewable on its electricity mix approaching 80% (45% on total primary energy use, thanks to ethanol, and hydro).

Finally there is a pretty reasonable perspective to keep us out of the caves after PO if we learn to use more efficiently available resources while giving people in developing countries a fair chance to prosper...in Brazil we use something like 2% of available agricultural land (this excludes the whole of the Amazon ecosystem) to produce enough ethanol to run half the cars in the country (ethanol consumption topped gasoline in October). It is not a small car market, Brazil is the 10th largest consumer of energy in the world, and this year more than 3 million cars were sold (almost all of them flex fuel), and seating here I can see just from my window that there are a lot of savings that can be done even here, with MUCH better public transportation (mostly diesel buses here, it could be more based on subway systems, and light trains, for instance), better use of water, etc.

I am not sure if this would be applicable to every developing country, but probably in more countries than people think. And I really believe that the whole oil for food debate does not really apply so much to impoverished countries in tropical areas of Africa and Latin America or so strongly in developing countries in general – high density population Asian countries might be a different matter.

In Brazil, some improvements and technological adaptations to specific conditions of tropical countries (some of the most successful ones actually REDUCE the use of fuel in agriculture like the no-till method (check no-till at the World Bank site.) have enabled great leaps in productivity: between 2000 and 2008 grain production increased from 83 million Tons to 140 million tons, chicken, pork and beef have increased by 50%, fruit production also increased significantly, Brazil uses today 62 million hectares for agriculture, and 220 million for extensive cattle raising. With more intensive cattle production (or reduction on beef production) there would be a lot of room to increase production (without touching any more of the Amazon – whose economic/developmental/environmental challenge may be grounds for another post).

I lived in the Philippines for over 7 years in the periods of 1982-1987, 1993 and 2000. In that time the population went from 30 million to 80 and now 90 million people. The people seemed happier in the Marcos years, perhaps because there were more resources per person. Then came internet and cell phones and communication of economic disparities. In the large cities, theft became extremely common.

Whereas in the 80s, tuna weighed average 8 pounds, now they weigh 1 pound and look like bait. The have gill netted, trapped, poisoned and dynamited their waters to death. There are no birds anywhere, having been trapped and eaten.

I have a friend who has bought land in central Mindoro and has a lady there to manage his lands. Other expats have joined him and they have a large chunk of perfect farmland under cultivation. Good food , no medical. Another friend in central Mindanoa city of Cagayan de Oro has a lovely estate above the city with adequate food grown and fair medical. Another friend has a walled compound near Manila with no crops but great medical. They all have Philippina "marriages' and families and are hedging their bets while being able to move back to Oz, US, etc. I have sailed everywhere in the Phil. and can only conclude they are massively overpopulated with every eco niche filled to bursting. All infrastructure is failing and the next pandemic will cause chaos. This is a fifth world country. The people are lovely until angered. And anger is building.

If you want a fifth world country, better to pick one with a smaller population or maybe a fourth world country.

IIRC definitions of 'worlds'

First world - N. Amer, Europe, Japan, OZ, NZ
Second world - Soviet Union and Satellite countries
Third world - Those countries capable of becoming first world. IE Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Brazil,
Fourth world- Countries with the possibility of rising to an adequate standard of living, so so infrastructure, but not the basket case of the fifth world. IE Argentina S Africa, Malaysia, India
Fifth World - Basket cases that are never going to dig themselves out of their problems. IE The Phil, Most of Africa,Indonesia. One step away from anarchy.

Best idea, stick to where you have a circle of friends who know how to handle themselves.

Dave on Meander.

I teach a course with students from all over Asia. Many Chinese, Vietnamese, Laotians, Myanmar, also people from the former Soviet Union (Uzbekistan, etc.) My students tell me that their countries generally all have 60-70% of their population in farming. Many farmers use all kinds of horses and cattle in their work. Many families have only one car or often no cars. Lots of countries have most people living in villages, where commerce means the market square, where people often walk to trade their wares. When I explain to them about how I grew up in a suburb of NYC, with two cars and food coming from miles away in trucks, they are amazed. They don't have suburbs, generally.

I have no doubt that long after many Americans have experienced the most abject poverty and starvation, people in the countries where my students come from will still be buying and selling useful things they make and grow, just as they have for centuries. The majority of people in the world have been practicing ELP all along! I'm not saying peak oil won't touch them, but since they don't use that much to begin with, it's not much of a stretch. Orlov is thus correct.

I noticed that in the NYT today there's an article about how wealthy parents in the USA are trying to send their children off to college in Scotland and other foreign countries. Of course, cheaper tuition plays a part, but I think there is also a desire to get the kids somewhere else, where life has more chance to flourish without high energy inputs. These parents are rich and smart, they can read the situation very well, even if they don't articulate it on TOD or even know about TOD.

Years ago, on my honeymoon, I had a revelation in Kyoto. My new husband took me to one of the most famous temples, it's called Kiyomizu. I took one look as we started to ascend on foot the winding road leading up the hill and I saw no huge parking lot (actually no parking lot at all) (I was expecting--you may laugh-- something like the parking lot at Disneyworld in Orlando). "If this temple is so famous how come there's NO PARKING LOT???" I wanted to ask but before I could form the question the answer hit me with the force of a bullet train: these people had been doing everything without cars for millenia. From then on, I "got it" and when I moved here I was anxious to do without a car (it's been very easy for us and since my husband hates cars (he hates driving) I never need to worry that he'll buy one on the sly!) I make constant notes when I visit a new town in Japan about how much a car is needed, how much food is local, etc. Even before I found TOD I've been focusing on these things because it's been my life.

As for the idea that one is going to go home when things get tough, I would argue that it's a generalization that is probably just as untrue as it is true. For one thing, where is "home" for a married couple with families in two countries and extended family in five countries? And after 13 years in a new country, just where is home? And even if I were to go "home" actually my parents have moved to a new location (as Americans often do) which is not in any way my home at all, even if it is in America. And furthermore, as things really change in America, as people become producers like so many of my students' compatriots are, then it will not be like the home I left even if the location is somewhat in proximity.

My advice is to find a country which you like, even if it is America (which is after all very big and even though it(s so dependent on oil now it won't be after a while). And then call it home. Make it home. Voila it is home. Your home. Because you like it and you want to stay. And after a while you won't have a choice anyway because your mobility will be reduced, as will the numbers of cars and planes that made it possible. But that's OK because you are home.

I'm in total agreement with the views you have quoted. I've made this point before on TOD, but there's no harm in making it again. Unless you've actually lived in it or traveled through it (as I have) it is hard for anybody from the "first" world to understand what real poverty is. People who have nothing except the land they live on, a garden, some chickens, maybe goats, and if you're super-wealthy, a few cows/bulls. Peak oil will pass these people by practically unnoticed. There will be no medicines coming from the outside, life expectancy will drop a little, but otherwise, life will go on.

Those of us who have enough free time and access to post messages on TOD live in a world made possible by our energy supplies. Peak oil/energy naturally freaks (some of) us out because it really does spell a change in the way we live. Some respond by stockpiling guns and food. All power to them. Hopefully they will quickly eliminate themselves from the gene pool through gunfights and starvation. I know what is potentially coming, so I'm not too worried about peak oil and preparations I make are centered around primary skills such as growing stuff, preserving/pickling, and making stuff (e.g., carpentry).

What you haven't mentioned is climate change. If/when this change really kicks in, the people who live in the third world are really screwed. A prolonged drought comes and crops fail. Mass starvation and displacement will follow. There will be no food aid from the first world to save the day. Frankly it will be a holocaust on a scale never witnessed. That is what I don't look forward to. I just hope I'll be dead before then. I honestly don't think we'll experience significant effects of climate change for another century or so. But as I've mentioned before, predicting deadlines in a complex dynamical system is an exercise in futility. Things may turn bad in 40 years, it make take 200 years.

Presuming you are an American, keep in mind that a angry mob might not understand or take any note of the difference between a good American, a bad American, or a former American.