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111 comments on Saudi Aramco on 60 Minutes
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111 comments on Saudi Aramco on 60 Minutes
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the last time oil peaked like this, production copllapsed and took years to recover. Was it because capacity to produce had peaked?
Price spikes induced temporary demand destruction. Capacity to produce was not an issue then; what does that have to do with the current R/P (depending on whose numbers you use)? Yeast at point 4 on the graph might think "We can party forever!". Yeast at point 10 on the graph may think "Just like at point 4, we can party forever!".
you know that their capacity will be higher than it was in 2005.
For how many years? 2? 5? 10?
Some people thought it was... and we haven't gotten to the point where we know it is now.
Possibly even longer.
The problem with that is that almost every such graph (including coal and NatGas etc.) shows the ranmping up all the way to "today" and then beginning a decline. You could draw such a graph at any point along the climb.
Some people thought it was...
Who? References, please.
and we haven't gotten to the point where we know it is now.
Sure, but in order to be smarter than yeast, we have to make intelligent assessments of remaining supplies, and intelligent decisions about how to transition away from non-renewable sources.
Possibly even longer.
Possibly? Aren't you sure? On the other hand, possibly less, right?
You could draw such a graph at any point along the climb.
But we've hit an undulating plateau, and at a time when oil prices are high.
Sure, but in order to be smarter than yeast, we have to make intelligent assessments of remaining supplies, and intelligent decisions about how to transition away from non-renewable sources.
So your position is "let's assume I'm right" ?
Only if you believe that they don't understand anything about oil or are lying through their teeth (in a way that does them no benefit).
Which is just what happened the last time.
The point is that production can be either supply or demand-limited. You can't look at a decline in production and assume that it's because they can't pump more. In the case of the Saudis, they have decades of history of intentionally pumping less than they can.
What time was that? I hope you are not talking about the early 80's. There was never a doubt what caused that very short plateau and then a retreat of 15% of production. We had the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraqi war and the subsequent "Tanker Wars". All this reduced OPEC production to about half and world production by 15%.
I get tired of people pointing to this period and saying, "Yeah, we thought oil had peaked then also." No we did not! We all knew exactly what caused that fall in production. But because non-OPEC nations could not take up the slack, some speculated that the world may be facing production restrictions. Which was also the truth.
And by the way, in 2008 non-OPEC oil production fell off it's five year plateau that began in July of 2003 and ended in July of 2008.
Ron Patterson
LoL!
So "we know", do we? You just saw the same thing happen again and interpreted it as different because you wanted to.
In the 80s, production declined because there was no demand as economies contracted. Now you see a five year plateau that just coincidentally ends just as demand is falling off the table and you somehow see it as different?
I never had any doubt about how the 80s went down (though yes, there were people who thought we were close to using up cheap energy)... you're the one stuck having to demonstrate that "this time is different".
Yes we knew! I take it you are too young to remember those days. I am not and remember very well what was going on.
That is the most absurd thing I have read on TOD in weeks. High oil prices, brought on by the decline in OPEC production, caused the recession. If what you say is true, then why did only OPEC production decline. In 1979 OPEC C+C production averaged 30.942 mb/d, according to the EIA. in 1985 their production was 16.693 mb/d, a decline of 46.05%. Over the same period non-OPEC production went from 31.732 mb/d in 1979 to 37.273 mb/d in 1985, an increase of 17.46%. So why did economic contraction cause only OPEC to cut production by almost half while non-OPEC production kept right on increasing as usual?
And between 1978 and 1980, oil prices increased by 150%. And oil prices stayed extremely high through 1985. That is really strange behavior for prices if the decline in production during that period was caused by falling demand! Historical Crude Oil Prices (Table)
As I said above, we all knew very well what was happening because it was on the frigging news daily! I would suggest PP, that you get your facts straight next time before you go spouting off stuff about which you are obviously totally ignorant of.
Ron Patterson
And I take it you didn't read what you responded to. And yes, I remember reasonably well... I lived in the ME around that time.
Yes... artificial tightening of supply caused economic weakness which in turn clobbered demand... that reduced demand (combined with new sources of energy) caused oil prices to collapse. Even with OPEC (again intentionally) curtailing production, prices continued to fall.
Pretty much just as is happening today.
For the same reason it's falling today. They're desperate to prop up prices but have trouble enforcing discipline on their wn producers, let alone the rest of the world.
You're kidding, right? Other nations don't allow price-fixing and cartel behavior. Nations who had discovered new supplies while prices were out-of-whack kept pumping. Then OPEC not only had to cut a bbl to prop up prices but had to cut another one for every bbl produced outside of OPEC.
This is why the Saudis (and a few others) fought against Iran/Venezuela/etc to raise quotas several months back. They were terrified that the high prices would cause another worldwide slide which would end up hurting far more than letting prices go back down.
It would be... if your characterization was accurate. It isn't. You accepted annual averages and ignored inflation (if you do remember the 80s...)
From 1975 (no idea why you selected 78) to 1980, prices were up (inflation adjusted) more like 500% and fell fairly consistently (and significantly) for over five years.
I would suggest RP, that you get your facts straight next time before you go spouting off stuff about which you are obviously totally ignorant of.
PP, you are engaging in double talk, trying to get out of the really stupid thing you said:
NO, that is dead wrong! In the 80's production declined because of the Iranian Revolution, because of the Iran-Iraqi War and because of the Tanker War that started in 1984. Prices skyrocketed. There were long lines at service stations. In some places you could only get gas on alternate days, based on whether your tag number was even or odd.
PP, to say, as you did, that "In the 80s, production declined because there was no demand as economies contracted," is just down in the dirt stupid!
Ron Patterson
PP, you are engaging in double talk, trying to get out of the really stupid thing you said:
Nope. Just pointing out that your strawman is a strawman.
NO, that is dead wrong! In the 80's production declined because of the Iranian Revolution, because of the Iran-Iraqi War and because of the Tanker War that started in 1984.
Production did decline for those reasons. It also (and primarily) declined due to economic contraction. There was the ability to export more oil... but no demand for it.
PP, to say, as you did, that "In the 80s, production declined because there was no demand as economies contracted," is just down in the dirt stupid!
"Stupid" perhaps to try to pound the truth through a thickened head... but not wrong. Sorry. What would be "stupid" would be to pretend that you remember skyrocketing prices and economic contraction but that it didn't impact demand for oil.
Note, BTW, that the embargo was in '74 and supply continued to climb. Iran was 78-79 and supply only dropped 4%. Economic weakness was well in place by that point.
A simple exercise for you. Google "oil glut" and see what you get. If prices were falling because there was too much oil on the market even though less was being produced than before... you have to know it was a demand-side problem. Right?
The price did not collapse until 1986, the year that production began to increase. Production jumped by over 2.2 million barrels per day in 1986, then prices collapsed! The proceeding seven years, 1979 thru 1985 saw deep cuts by OPEC causing prices to skyrocket. Then in 1986 they opened the spigot again and prices collapsed.
You are putting the cart before the horse. The very high oil prices, and very low oil production, caused the recession. Demand did not collapse until 1986, (or late 85) the exact same year that prices collapsed. How could you possibly have excessive production, a glut of oil, and still have extremely high prices? And remember there was no NYMEX speculators in those years to drive prices up.
Obviously there was much less oil sold during the early 80's, because there was much less oil produced. That is why prices stayed high! Then when OPEC opeaned the spigot prices collapsed. What else would one expect?
However as Will Stewart said:
Ron Patterson
You're absolutely immune to facts, aren't you? Did you not even look at the graph I provided? I can give you another one from the site you linked.
How can you expect anyone to look at that and then read you saying "price did not collapse until 1986" without laughing?
The CEO of Exxon was talking about an oil glut in 1981 (saying that the main cause was declining consumption).
Since I've now said that more than once... one must wonder what point you think you're making.
Simply (and ridiculously) wrong. So you position is that supply collapsed but people kept consuming the same amount? Was it magic pixie oil?
You can't... which is why prices declined by more than half in real terms during the period you claim there was no decline. You've entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts.
PP, The only thing that happened in the 70's and early 80's was a huge effort to make processes more energy efficient. Before that time, oil flowed like water. Afterward, it didn't. This could look like a reduction in demand, as people realized they shouldn't treat it like a sieve anymore. From this resetting of the baseline, productivity kept on increasing and demand once again started to creep upwards again.
It's happened again and we have immediate reductions in energy use, unfortunately the gains in reduction are not what we saw back then since that was an "awakening" kind of event that will never be duplicated.
The Oil Shock model is designed to handled these changes in production rates.
"the gains in reduction are not what we saw back then since that was an "awakening" kind of event that will never be duplicated."
One of the largest events was substitution of Nat Gas and nuclear for oil electrical generation. We can do the same thing, on a larger scale, with the electrification of ground (and, surprisingly, water) transportation.
This kind of large-scale substitution isn't unique to the 21st or even the 20th century - it happened in the late 19th century with the substitution of electricity for kerosene illumination. If gasoline powered ICE vehicles hadn't come along in the early 20th century, oil would have had no large markets at all.
Still waiting...
Only if you believe that they don't understand anything about oil or are lying through their teeth
You must know about the sudden OPEC reserve hikes in the 1980s, and how reserves never seem to drop. Only the naive would take something like that at face value.
Which is just what happened the last time.
Nope. On top of what was mentioned upthread, the North Sea and Alaska came online, dropping the price. More fuel efficient cars became available and common, people shifted their home heat from oil over to electric, etc. And note that demand destruction did not occur in 2005 (or 2006 or most of 2007), so this situation is clearly dissimilar from the late 70s/early 80s.
are lying. Got it.
What? You mean that non-opec energy supplies were being ramped up while energy-efficiency and conservation efforts combined with weaker economic growth to curtail demand?
Um... how is that different from today again? :)
And note that demand destruction did not occur in 2005 (or 2006 or most of 2007
It took a few years the last time as well. Living habits don't change until a pain threshold is reached... not as soon as prices rise. And new production takes years to ramp up (as does transitions to alternate fuel sources).
Again... how is that different?
What? You mean that non-opec energy supplies were being ramped up while energy-efficiency and conservation efforts combined with weaker economic growth to curtail demand?
Um... how is that different from today again? :)
A number of reasons; One, there are no major sources of new oil like there was with the North Sea and Alaska. Two, there are little in the way of massive home energy conservation efforts that have an effect on oil prices. Three, the plateau previously experienced was a direct result of demand destruction; the current plateau was not.
A number of reasons; One, there are no major sources of new oil like there was with the North Sea and Alaska.
Sorry... that begs the question, doesn't it?
Two, there are little in the way of massive home energy conservation efforts that have an effect on oil prices.
Nonsense. Never heard of hybrids? Shifting to natGas? High-efficiency washers/dryers/furnaces/AC... tankless water heaters (just got one of those) etc etc etc ???
And LOTS of the savings came well after prices spiked. Two or three years is hardly enouogh time to say nobody is making significant efforts.
Three, the plateau previously experienced was a direct result of demand destruction; the current plateau was not.
See #1. Assumes the conclusion of your argument as evidence to prove your argument.
The recent "plateau" is just noise until a substantial production decline is evident and now that we see a clear decline, it also clearly demand destruction.
You are obviously not interested in rational debate; good day...
There's the sign of a "true believer".
"If they don't accept my word as Gospel within five posts... they're just not interested in rational debate".
Put another way "Don't confuse me with the facts, I've already made up my mind".
More likely... you just read the Jimmy Carter quote and realized that the early 80s were far more like the current situation than you're comfortable with.
Oh well... far be it from be to hurt any sacred cows. Have a good day.
Sorry for the delay... I remembered something that works and can be cited.
Remember Jimmy Carter?
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=7372
"But early in the 1980's, even foreign oil will become increasingly scarce." - "we could use up all the proven reserves in the entire world by the end of the next decade"
That was 1977.
Please tell me the model that either you (now) or Jimmy Carter (then) was working from. If either of these is anything more than a heuristic based on empirical data, I distrust it as well. So please tell me the model that you are using now to criticize current predictions.