Dear Rockman,
During the next decade to 2018, A large proportion of our coal fired base load is scheduled to come offline in order to comply with EU directives. At the same time, about half of our ageing nuclear base load is due to be decomissioned. If no substitute is supplied in the form of new nuclear generation or alternatives, then we face at least 30% shortfall in base load by about 2015. EDF have recently suggested that the gap will be filled by gas turbine generation. Although the gas turbine solution is a relatively cheap solution as far as capital and plant is concerned It is unlikely to be secure regarding source of fuel. The credit crunch may even kill off these plans and quite possibley the plans for renewables.

Regrettably the UK has had an extreme free market philosphy to energy for over 20 years now. The strategic implications have never really been understood by our scientifically illiterate leadership, or actually, studiously ignored. This can be blamed on both ruling parties. Both are equally guilty.

The big question now for whoever is in power is whom do they fear most? The wrath of the electorate? or the wrath of Brussels? I would suggest that Brussels will come second to the electorate and these coal fired power stations will be retained and extended. A bargain will be struck before Brussels is blamed for switcching the lights off. However we will be rationed in the coming winters, especially if cooling takes us to the kinds of scenarios of the 1970's. I anticipate 'carbon foot print' rationing based on a national ID scheme to be used as the fig leaf and pretext and as a 'solution' to this self inflicted problem.
Rgds
Dropstone